Australia enter this season’s World Cup on an all time low. Ranked 6th in the world, Australian Rugby seems to be in its darkest hour. Despite the riches of talent in the side, Australia have struggled at times. Disciplinary struggles mean that Australia have had a coaching carousel with Robbie Deans and Ewen McKenzie both biting the dust between 2013 and 2015. Additionally Australia find themselves in the “Pool of Death”, with England, Wales, Fiji, and Uruguay.
However, there is winds of change in Australia, and optimism is growing with new head coach Michael Cheika, who transformed Leinster into a Heineken Cup winning side, and turned the floundering Waratahs into Super Rugby Champions in just two seasons as head coach. Stars like Tevita Kuridrani, Israel Folau, and Adam Ashley-Cooper mean that Australia has the firepower to return to their dominant best, but there is something holding them back, something that they must fix before the World Cup, or they will be resigned to an early exit, and worse, English smugness. Australia need to fix their scrum, and need to fix it before it is too late.
Australia have a few trustworthy options in their front row, and these players must form the cornerstone of the side. James Slipper is a good scrummager, and is a very talented player in the loose. He picks good angles and is not afraid to pass, and is a favorite in the Australian setup. Benn Robinson and Pek Cowan will form his primary competition for the loosehead spot, with Paddy Ryan needing to improve at scrum time.
The return of Stephen Moore after his horrible ACL injury is fantastic news for the Wallabies. Moore has been in good form for the Brumbies, and his experience and leadership, as well as his solidity at the set-piece means that he will likely be the favorite for Australia. Tatafu Polota Nau is another good option for the Wallabies, but he is struggling with concussion issues at the moment. Saia Faingaa provides good backup, but his inconsistency at the lineout means he can be nothing more. Nathan Charles is a very good player in the loose, and has plenty to offer if he is given a shot by Cheika.
Sekope Kepu will be the favorite at tight head. Kepu is a great athlete and is hugely powerful. Another prop who is very good in open play, the Wallabies will need him at his best at the World Cup. Ben Alexander is a good second choice, and is a little more stable at scrum time, but cannot offer the excellent work in the loose that Kepu can and will bring to the table.
Australia’s preferred second rows were Rob Simmons and Sam Carter, however Carter suffered a knee injury, and he will be in a race to prove himself fit for the world cup. Will Skelton is a fantastic talent for the Wallabies, as his immense size and strength gave teams headaches when he would come off the bench as an impact sub. Now, playing the full 80 more frequently for the Waratahs, he could take over for the Wallabies as well. James Horwill will put his hand up, and so will Brumbies bolter Rory Arnold, who is having a very good season, and could work his way into Wallabies contention.
The back row is where things get really confusing (front rowers be careful). Young Sean McMahon and Rebels teammate Scott Higginbotham have been in great form this season. Both are dynamic ball carriers and big hitters who can do a ton of damage around the field, and then get their hands free for offloads. Scott Fardy is more of a dog at the breakdown, but is not as explosive or exciting as his rebels compatriots.
Then there is the 7 shirt, which is a story all on its own. David Pocock has been incredible this season for the Brumbies, doing his usual witchcraft at the breakdown, but also has been dominant with ball in hand, scoring 7 tries, the second most of any forward. Michael Hooper has been the captain for the Wallabies in Moore’s absence, and his electric pace and strength gives every side headaches. This season, Hooper has been targeted by many sides, so he has become much more of a decoy option for the Waratahs, creating space for others. Additionally, no Australian forward has made more tackles than the Waratahs openside, highlighting his excellent workrate. Then there is Liam Gill, who has been a dominant force for the Reds at the breakdown all season long, but then again Matt Hodgson can offer the same thing. And we cannot forget about George Smith, the now eligible legend who sunk the British and Irish Lions in 2001 and has been phenomenal in France this season. Of course, they could resort to starting two 7’s, with Hooper and Pocock, similar to what Ireland did with Sean O’Brien and David Wallace. This will not be an easy choice, and I don’t envy Michael Cheika for having to make it.
The choice at number 8 is also not easy. Wycliff Palu is a great athlete and a big impact player with ball in hand, but he can run hot and cold, and sometimes he is absent at the breakdown. Ben McCalman has been the favorite of late, big, physical, and attritional, McCalman has a superb workrate, and puts his body on the line every time he pulls on the jersey. Higginbotham is the other option. Slightly more of a X-factor player, Higginbotham is extremely talented. There are not many forwards who can pull off better offloads than Higginbotham, and the Rebels Co-Captain has a knack for scoring tries, as he currently holds the record for Super Rugby Tries for a Forward. Usurping McCalman will not be easy, but Higginbotham is very capable of pulling it off.
That is a list of very high-profile and talented names, but for whatever reason when combined, they cannot seem to get it right. Given a bit of time, and a bit of help, one hopes that Cheika can sort this group out, or the Wallabies will struggle. Don’t forget, in 2011 Australia went to battle with Ireland with wet powder in the forwards, and the result was an Irish demolition of the Aussies up front, leading to a narrow Irish victory.
Predicted First XV:
1. James Slipper
2. Stephen Moore
3. Sekope Kepu
4. Sam Carter
5. Rob Simmons
6. Scott Higginbotham
7. David Pocock
8. Ben McCalman
9. Nick Phipps
10. Bernard Foley
11. Rob Horne
12. Matt Toomua
13. Tevita Kuridrani
14. Joe Tomane
15. Israel Folau