The Battle for the Finals

Only six rounds to go, the battle for the wild cards spots in this year’s Super 15 is really hotting up. With only eight points separating the top nine teams, the competition is still wide open.

The South African conference is looking pretty straight forward, The Sharks are bound to top the lot in Africa and secure a home final. But what are the chances of the Bulls? They are sitting only two points out of a wild card spot.

A bye this weekend, and another bye still to come isn’t going to help their cause, so theoretically, the Bulls only have four rounds left to put their stamp on the competition. The big advantage for them is all their touring is done and dusted for 2014. But, they still have some very tough games coming up.

The Australian conference is looking tighter, three teams still in contention. The Brumbies, Force and Waratahs still in with a shot of making the top six, and even finishing on top of the table overall. The Force, being this years bolters.

The Waratahs need to develop more consistency to make themselves a threat. Unable to secure back-to-back wins since their win against the Reds on March 1.

But lets not forget the Brumbies, they have played one more game than the Force an the Waratahs. With only a three point lead at the top of the Australian conference, their bye round has the potential to make all the difference.

New Zealand, where do we start? All five teams in their conference are still very much alive. But with 10 ‘local derby’ matches still ahead of them, they are set to cannibalize each other’s chances.

Because of this, New Zealand being able to get more than two teams into the top six is unlikely. They are the tightest conference in this years competition, and that means it’s going to cost them places in the finals.

The Chiefs have started to cough and splatter, the Hurricanes arguably have the toughest matches to close out the home and away part of the season. The Highlanders struggling to win away from home and the Blues with a bye still to come, can’t afford to drop many more games.

To pick a conference winner in New Zealand, you could almost place all five teams names on a board, put a blindfold on and throw a dart.

So what matches are still to come? Where will the points go?

The Bulls have it tough, two byes still to come and a couple of tough matches against the Sharks and the Brumbies. The Bulls have their backs to the wall. I can only see the Bulls gaining two wins in the final six rounds.

The Bumbies with a bye, and a tough away game to the Waratahs ahead, should still pick up four wins. The Force are a chance to actually top the Australian conference, a hard battle ahead against the Crusaders in Christchurch, and a home match against the Blues, as well as a final round match-up against the Brumbies, we still see them picking up victories in four of the final six rounds.

The Tahs still have some very tight and crucial matches ahead, with most of their remaining big games being played at home, this is an advantage shouldn’t be underestimated. The RBP crystal ball indicates the Waratahs should get five wins in their last six – if they can develop some form of consistency.

Now, to pick a conference winner in New Zealand, you could almost place all five teams names on a board, put a blindfold on and throw a dart. However, lets put some level of thought into it.

The Chiefs have had a mortgage on the number one spot in New Zealand pretty much all year, but, with a bye this round, and only two home game to come. Their run home is looking rocky. In New Zealand, we’re seeing more often than not this year, the team with the home ground advantage is the team generally picking up the win. Because of that, we can only see the Chiefs gaining two victories in the last six rounds.

The Crusaders have been the form team in New Zealand in recent weeks. Big wins over the Reds in Brisbane, and the Brumbies at home has really shot them right up to the pointy end of the table. And we think they’ll pick up four wins in the remaining rounds.

The Canes have a tough, tough draw to finish off with, five ‘local derby’ matches and a bye, nothing is for certain. However, we expect the Canes to finish off the year with three wins.

The Highlanders has been pretty close to invincible at home, but, their away form is inconsistent. And with a majority of their last six matches being away, we can only see the southern cuzzies gaining two more victories.

And the Blues, like the ‘Landers, their home form has been phenomenal, it’s how they play away from home which has cost them. With a bye this weekend, we can only see the Blues picking up three more wins to close out the season.

This is RBP’s predictions, what is yours?