Super Rugby: The Table and Hypothetical Scenarios That Could Play Out

With one round to go, there is only one position on the table that’s for certain – The Waratahs will finish on top. But what does that mean for all the other teams still in contention?

Let’s take a look.

Firstly, we should take into consideration how SANZAR separates teams who are locked on the same total points at the end of the season:

1.  Most wins
2. Highest aggregate points difference
3. Most tries
4. Highest aggregate difference between tries scored and tries conceded
5. Toss of the coin

Crusaders possible finishing position: 2nd – 4th

For the Crusaders to keep second place on the table they must win, preferably with a bonus point. If the Sharks get a win, they’ll be on the same points. But they’re only eight behind in terms of for and against.

The big advantage for the Crusaders, if they end up on the same total at the end of the week as the Sharks, the Crusaders are a long way ahead of the Sharks on tries scored. But the only way to guarantee a second place finish, is to get a big win over the Highlanders.

However, if they do lose, they are still guaranteed a home qualifying final.

Sharks possible finishing positions: 2nd – 3rd

The Sharks will realistically need to win convincingly, and with a bonus point against the Stormers to claim second. They are 11 tries behind the Crusaders over the course of the season but are only eight behind on points difference. Because of this, we may see the Sharks break out of the penalty goal mentality this weekend.

The good news for the Sharks is they are that far ahead on the South African conference they can’t possible finish any lower than where they currently are.

Highlanders possible finishing positions: 2nd – 7th

For the Highlanders to finish second, they need to win with a bonus point, and hope neither the Sharks or the Crusaders gain anything out of their last round matches.

While the Highlanders have scored more tries than either the Crusaders or the Sharks, they are too far behind on wins and points for and against to get ahead of either of them, if they end up locked on equal points.

A bonus point of any kind will be enough for the Highlanders to finish in the top six. But if they fail to gain a bonus point in a loss to the Crusaders, and a scenario where the following two things all play out; The loser of the Force v Brumbies match gaining two bonus points, and the Chiefs beat the Blues, they will find themselves out of the top six all together.

Hurricanes possible finishing positions: 6th – 9th

The Hurricanes are in a position that no team ever wants to be in. They have to rely on other results to keep them in the race.

For the Canes to remain in the top six, the need the Blues to beat the Chiefs by no more than 37, while hoping the Chiefs gain no more than one bonus point, max. As well as praying that the loser out of the Brumbies v Force don’t take any bonus points home.

I’m afraid to say, that when I shook the magic 8-ball, it came up “out look, not good” for Hurricanes fans.

Brumbies possible finishing positions: 4th – 9th

The Brumbies are in a good position to claim 4th spot at the end of next week. They’ll only need to get a win against the Force at home and hope the Crusaders beat the Highlanders (which they are strong favorites to do). With the Chiefs being two wins behind the Brumbies, that should be enough for them to claim 4th.

However, if they do lose, they NEED to get a bonus point. Any bonus point will put them ahead of the Hurricanes, but even that may not be enough to keep them in the top six. If they gain two bonus points in a loss to the Force and the Highlanders lose, then that will be enough for the Brumbies to stay in the finals race. If they lose with only one bonus point, then they need to pray the Blues beat the Chiefs.

In the event where the Brumbies draw against the Force, that will also be enough to get them through, and still possibly claim 4th if both the Highlanders and the Chiefs go down.

Force possible finishing positions: 4th – 9th

With the Force and the Brumbies both locked on 40 points and playing each other in the final round, the Force are in the same boat as the Canberrans in terms of possible outcomes.

The only difference is, if they draw with the Brumbies, without gaining a four-try bonus point, the Force couldn’t possibly take 4th.

Chiefs possible finishing positions: 4th – 9th

The Chiefs pretty much need to win to keep their title defense alive. Any win will be enough to get them into the top six, but a bonus point victory, while hoping the loser of the Brumbies v Force game don’t gain a bonus point, and at the same time, if the Highlanders lose to the Crusaders, we will see the Chiefs finish 4th and secure a home qualifying final.

If the Chiefs do go down against the Blues, they’ll need to take two bonus points out of the match, as well as praying the loser of the Brumbies v Force only gain one bonus point, max. In that scenario, the Chiefs will finish 6th. Same result if they draw with the Blues.

Lastly, I’m only mentioning this to cover all bases, this is the most improbable outcome of all the hypothetical situations I have, and will cover; If the Chiefs draw with a bonus point, and the Brumbies and Force draw without a bonus point, as well as the Highlanders losing, in that scenario, the Chiefs would finish 4th.

Blues possible finishing position: 6th – 9th

There is no more than one situation where the Blues can make the play-offs. They need to win BIG, and with a bonus point.

They’ll need to beat the Chiefs by at least 38 points, as well as praying the loser out of the Brumbies v Force don’t gain any bonus points out of their match.
If the Brumbies, Force or Chiefs gain a bonus point in a losing match, their season will be over.

RBP’s prediction

How do we think the table will finish up I hear you ask? Well, I’m glad you asked.

1. Waratahs
2. Crusaders
3. Sharks
4. Brumbies
5. Highlanders
6. Force
7. Hurricanes
8. Blues
9. Chiefs

What’s your final table predictions?