The final round of Super Rugby, and the most important round of year.
With nine teams still in contention for the finals, most teams find themselves in a must win situation. Over the next two days, we find out who plays on and who goes home.
Blues Vs. Chiefs
The first of four games with massive finals ramifications. Expect a high-octane affair, the Blues MUST win by at least 38, scoring a minimum of five tries along the way. There will be no holding back by the Blues, they’ll certainly have a tries at all costs mentality. Yet, the Blues will still be knocked out if the Chiefs or the loser of Brumbies v Force jag a bonus point.
The equation for the Chiefs is simple, win. A win will guarantee them finals birth, if they don’t win, they MUST gain two bonus points to have any chance. One bonus point for the Chiefs will not be enough to get ahead of the Hurricanes, who have a far superior for and against (63 vs. 3).
Making life tough for the Blues will be the absence of Luke Braid and Tony Woodcock. The Chiefs have made just one change, with centre Bundee Aki replacing the injured Charlie Ngatai.
The only home game the Blues have lost all year was against the Sharks in North Harbour, and the Blues are yet to drop a game at Eden Park this season. Because of the Blues form in Auckland, I’m tipping them to take it out.
Blues to win by 12 in a highly entertaining match.
Brumbies Vs. Force
The finals scenario is the same for both these teams, they’re both locked on 40 points and the same amount of wins. The winner of this match will be hot favorites to finish in 4th and secure a home qualifying final.
Even in a losing team, a bonus point should be enough to get the loser through – if my tip in the previous game (Blues v Chiefs) holds true. A losing bonus point will put them equal on points with the Hurricanes (41) but both the Brumbies and the Force have a superior number of wins, and will thus move higher on the table.
Wallabies Matt Toomua and Sam Carter are back for the Brumbies after their last-start loss to the Waratahs – not to mention third-string hooker Josh Mann-Rea. The Force have lost powerful flanker Hugh McMeniman to a one-week suspension for kneeing. In the visitors’ favour is the fact the Brumbies haven’t won a last-round match since 2007, with the Force beating them last year and in 2008.
Even though last round form is against the Brumbies they should still be too strong at home. The Brumbies will no doubt look to secure a win before going for a bonus point, meaning a lot of penalty goals being traded. Because of this, the Force should have an easy-ish time in hunting a losing bonus point.
I’m tipping the Brumbies by 4.
Bulls Vs. Rebels
One of only two ‘who cares’ matches of the final round. There is little to play for, for these two teams other than pride. Both teams are out of finals contention, but it’s likely the Rebels will be more desperate than the Bulls.
Only a win for the Rebels will give them a chance of avoiding the wooden spoon following last weeks loss to the Lions. They’ll have to do so without skipper Scott Higginbotham, who has received a one-game suspension for repeated yellow cards this season.
The Bulls haven’t lost at their high-altitude home all year. They’ll be hurting after last week’s 16-0 loss to the Stormers and will want to avoid finishing the season with three straight defeats.
The Rebels really have had a season to forget, and the Bulls will want to finish on a high, because of this and the Bulls home ground form, I’m tipping the Bulls to win by 14.
What’s your predictions?