RWC 2015 Match Prediction: Australia vs Wales

The most important match in Pool A. This will be the deciding clash, and will determine who tops the pool, and who will face the resurgent Springboks at Twickenham. Despite both sides having already qualified, both have brought their best teams to bear, and you can expect plenty of fireworks when this match kicks off.

Gethin Jenkins is not in the side, and his experience will be a loss to the Welsh, but Bath’s Paul James is not short on experience himself. Hooker Scott Baldwin continues his excellent year with another start, while Samson Lee completes his return from injury in his first start since his torn achilles against Ireland. Wales struggled against England at the scrum, and that bodes well for this Wallaby front row, who are fresh off whipping their English rivals. Scott Sio and Sekope Kepu are not only good operators in the scrum, but they also are devastating weapons in the loose, and Warren Gatlands defence has to contain them.

Australia have brought plenty of physicality in their second row, with the selection of Kane Douglas and Dean Mumm. These two will be making big hits everywhere, and are very intelligent lineout jumpers. Expect them to contest plenty of Welsh ball. For Wales, they return to the partnership that brought them so much success in the 6 Nations, with Luke Charteris and Alun Wyn-Jones lining up together. Wyn-Jones brings his power and work rate, while Charteris brings more height in the lineout and excellent offloading skill.

Wales have brought back the Warburton, Tipuric pairing in the flankers, taking a leaf from the Australians book. Tipuric’s pace and vision means that he is a great weapon for Wales in open play, while Sam Warburton will try to control the breakdown, no easy feat against the likes of the Wallabies back row. Taulupe Faletau was heroic in the Welsh win over England, and will want to carry that form into this weekends fixture. Michael Hooper’s ban sees the end of the Pooper pairing for now, but brings in the new McMahock (coming soon to a McDonalds near you) with young Sean McMahon stepping into the 7 shirt. McMahon is in outstanding form at the moment, and he is a great talent. He brings a lot of physicality, great vision with ball in hand, and gets through a lot of work in open play. Combined with Pocock and Fardy’s work at the breakdown, this is one stellar Wallaby back row.

After two stunning performances by their out-halves, neither coach has changed their halfback pairings, with Will Genia and Bernard Foley remaining the go to for Australia, while Gareth Davies and Dan Biggar start for Wales. Last time out Foley produced a dazzling all around performance that has us saying Quade who? If Wales find themselves against a Foley in that kind of form, they may be in trouble.

Wales’s injury troubles in the centers are well documented, with Jonathan Davies, Scott Williams, and Cory Allen all injured. This has forced Warren Gatlands hand a bit, with Jamie Roberts and George North forming the Welsh center pairing. We all know how devastating North is with ball in hand, so the thought of him getting more involvement is exciting, but will his lack of experience at 13 cost him? The Wallabies have taken a “don’t fix what ain’t broke” mentality, sticking with the pairing of Matt Giteau and Tevita Kuridrani. While these two never really reached their full attacking potential last week, rest assured, they can do plenty of damage with ball in hand.

Wales’s injuries have hampered their back three as well, with Leigh Halfpenny out, and now the need for George North in the center has forced Liam Williams to shift the wing, while Gareth Anscombe, typically a flyhalf, starts at fullback. There is still plenty of attacking skill in the Welsh lineup, with Williams and Alex Cuthbert possessing a lethal punch out wide. Australia keep Israel Folau at fullback, who will want to impress after having a slow tournament so far. Adam Ashley-Cooper starts on the wing once again, and is joined by Toulon star Drew Mitchell. Any errant kicking or defensive lapses from the Welsh will be swiftly punished by these three.

James Slipper and Ben McCalman offer the Australians some attacking prowess in the forwards off the bench, while Matt Toomua and Kurtley Beale will offer their x-factor when called upon late in the match. Wales’s depth has been tested, by their injuries and that has been reflected by the youth on the bench. Tomas Francis and Ross Moriarty will want to make big performances to keep their hands on the Welsh jerseys, while James Hook will bring explosiveness and versatility when he is brought into play.

Wales will back themselves against the Aussies, but there are a few facts that we must consider. It has been 10 attempts since the Welsh last beat the Australians, and you get the sense that with the Wallabies current momentum, it may soon be 11. Professional athletes will say time and time again that “momentum is more important than rest” and the Wallabies have so much coming off their win over England, I can’t see them losing this match.

Prediction: Australia 24- Wales 14