The All Blacks don’t lose often, particularly when playing in New Zealand.
More often than not when these two teams meet, it’s a match-up of the top two nations in world rugby, and there is no difference today. The Boks have looked a little shaky as of late, narrowly scraping past Argentina twice and losing narrowly to the Wallabies last weekend.
The tourists must settle on their game plan, too often this year it almost looks as if they’re not too sure what to do, kick-chase or play expansive. The All Blacks are missing some key players for this game, but on paper, would still appear to have more cohesion and flair.
While most nations can only dream of beating the All Blacks, South Africa’s Springboks have won against them 34 times. New Zealand has dominated in recent decades and still has the edge in the head-to-heads, with 50 victories, but the win percentage of 57% is its lowest against anyone.
New Zealand has won their last 35 matches at home, easily a record – 13 more than the next nearest nation has managed. The All Blacks last loss in New Zealand can exactly five years ago. And the opponents on that day was South Africa who departed Waikato Stadium with a 32-29 victory. The Springboks have now lost to New Zealand in their last five meetings.
Steve Hanson’s job has been made a little more difficult with injuries to Sam Whitelock and Liam Messam. Aaron Cruden moves into the starting line-up and Beauden Barrett shifting to the bench.
The Springboks have shown they are set on attack, naming 20-year olf Handre Pollard at fly half. “The forwards are settled, but we’re struggling to get continuity in the back-line.” Meyer said.
Referees have come under the spotlight in the Rugby Championship and adapting to Frenchman Jerome Garces could be crucial. Avoiding yellow cards and getting on the right side of scrum and technical ruck rulings are vital in tight Tests. Both teams have won five-from-five under Garces.
Key Match-Ups
Brodie Retallick v Eben Etzebeth
Two of the best young locks in world rugby will face off when Brodie Retallick and Eben Etzebeth do battle in Wellington on Saturday night.
The 23-year-old Retallick burst onto the scene with the Chiefs a couple of years ago and is now regarded as one of the most mobile locks on the planet. Busy in defence and a wonderful support player, Retallick has virtually become the prototype for the modern-day tall timber.
22-year-old Etzebeth probably doesn’t work as hard as his All Blacks rival but what he lacks in runs and tackles, he more than makes up for in raw aggression.
The Stormers giant is an excellent lineout option and although discipline can sometimes be a worry, he is capable of producing the kind of bone-jarring tackles that can turn a game.
Ma’a Nonu v Jean De Villiers
Springboks captain Jean De Villiers wouldn’t have it any other way, yet another showdown with great rival Ma’a Nonu is surely the skipper’s dream result in what is his 100th Test.
De Villiers was quoted earlier this week saying that he thought he’d never play another Test such was the horror show that was his debut way back in 2002, yet the blond bomber will go down as one of the great Bok backs when he eventually wraps up his stellar career.
The centurion has faced off with Nonu in many a Test, and the hard-running, hard-hitting duo know exactly what to expect from each other. The All Blacks No.12 has the advantage of having the experienced Aaron Cruden back at No.10 and that could be crucial early on.
Rising star Handre Pollard will face the All Blacks for the first time and the young flyhalf is bound to feel a few nerves in the opening stages. De Villiers will need to be a calming influence.
Israel Dagg v Willie Le Roux
They may not possess the raw power and athleticism of Israel Folau but rival fullbacks Willie Le Roux and Israel Dagg boast other strengths in creativity and wonderful individual skill.
Dagg was left out of the Bledisloe clashes against Australia due to a lack of form but quickly rediscovered the magic in an ITM Cup stint with Hawkes Bay. His inclusion again keeps the classy Ben Smith on the wing and alongside Julian Savea, the trio make up the most fearsome back three in the game.
Le Roux has been one of the standout attack threats in Super Rugby over the last few seasons and is now matching those efforts on the Test arena. Coach Heyneke Meyer wants his side to play more attacking rugby and Le Roux would benefit from a greater licence to roam.
Both men have the ability to make the match-winning play.
Our Prediction
All Blacks v Springboks is the most anticipated match of the year, and this one promises to be a ripper. How the All Blacks copes with the power of the South African pack. As well as how the Springboks manage to shut-down the All Blacks out wide and take away the space the Kiwi’s thrive on, will be key for both teams, and who ever adapts their respective challenges, best and quickest will have gone a long way to winning this match.
However, the All Blacks are on a 35 game winning steak at home, and we can’t see that trend changing today. We tip the All Blacks to win by 8.
Teams
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Aaron Smith, 1 Wyatt Crockett, 2 Dane Coles, 3 Owen Franks, 4 Brodie Retallick, 5 Jeremy Thrush, 6 Steven Luatua, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 8 Kieran Read.
Bench: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Joe Moody, 18 Ben Franks, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Sam Cane, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Cory Jane.
South Africa: 15 Wille le Roux, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 Jan Serfontein, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 1 Tendai Mtawarira, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 5 Victor Matfield, 6 Francois Louw, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 8 Duane Vermeulen.
Bench: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Marcel van der Merwe, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Warren Whiteley, 21 Francois Hougaard, 22 Pat Lambie, 23 Damian de Allende.
