Second place on the IRB world rankings is up for grabs when the Springboks hosts the Wallabies at Newlands today.
The Springboks are ranked second and the Wallabies third going into the penultimate-round southern hemisphere contest at tradition-steeped Newlands stadium. But the Wallabies would rise to second behind world champions New Zealand if they can end a 22-year Cape Town jinx.
Since a 26-3 win there in 1992 over opponents making only their second appearance after years of apartheid-induced isolation, the Wallabies have suffered six consecutive losses.
Australia turned the tables this month with a 24-23 win in Perth that proved anything but a celebration for Springbok wing Bryan Habana as he reached the 100-cap milestone. He was controversially yellow-carded late in the second half for a tackle on Adam Ashley-Cooper and the Wallabies took advantage to snatch victory via a late Rob Horne try.
South Africa lost again one week later, going down 14-10 to nemesis New Zealand, albeit after a much more passionate, defensively strong display. Those losses and Australia being beaten away to New Zealand have left the Springboks and Wallabies six points adrift of the All Blacks with two rounds to go.
And if New Zealand gain an expected win in Argentina later on Saturday and collect a four-try bonus point they will seal a third consecutive Championship title. Given they have the tougher final-round fixture – at home to the All Blacks – South Africa must overcome Australia to have a realistic chance of finishing runners-up for the second successive season.
“This will be a tough outing and we have to fire on all cylinders for the full 80 minutes,” said Springboks coach Heyneke Meyer. “It is great to be back in South Africa after three tough games on the road and we are looking forward to playing in front of our supporters.
“We have had a couple of great training sessions and there is a definite resolve to improve the quality of our performance on Saturday.”
Australia coach Ewen McKenzie believes the set-piece contests are set to play a crucial role in the outcome of the test.
“Set pieces are always an important focus for us – even more so when you play South Africa,” said the former Wallaby prop. “We realise the outcome of the scrums and line-outs will be vital to the final result. The Springboks always rise to another level when playing at home and we are under no illusions as to the challenges ahead.
“But we are looking forward to those challenges, in South Africa and in Argentina, as we continue evolving and improving our game.”
South Africa have made two injury-enforced changes to the side that started against New Zealand with scrumhalf Francois Hougaard and flanker Teboho Mohoje replacing Ruan Pienaar and Francois Louw.
Meyer has dismissed concerns about run-on debutant Mohoje, a 24-year-old who made his senior rugby debut only this year, being ring rusty.
“His match sharpness is a concern having last played in July, but he is very fit,” said Meyer of a forward expected to play 50 minutes before veteran Schalk Burger comes off the bench.
McKenzie has changed both wings from the team that edged Argentina with Adam Ashley-Cooper and Joe Tomane replacing Peter Betham and Horne. The other alteration is at hooker with Saia Fainga’a coming in for injured Tatafu Polota-Nau, and the inclusion of experienced prop Benn Robinson is among the bench changes.
KEY MATCH-UPS
Joe Tomane v Cornal Hendricks
Finally injury-free, Tomane makes a welcome return to the Wallabies backline for his first Test start since Australia’s win over Wales last December. Tomane replaces Rob Horne on the left wing, and the Brumbies flyer can expect anything other than a quiet reintroduction to Test rugby. That’s if the Wallabies follow the instructions of Fox Sports Rugby expert Rod Kafer, who says Tomane’s direct opponent — Hendricks — represents a weakness in the Boks backline.
“This is where the opportunity is for the Wallabies — get the ball and target Cornal Hendricks,” Kafer said on Rugby HQ. “He gets caught a lot in defence. There’s absolutely an opportunity for the Wallabies, if they can move the ball to the far left they’ll score some tries down Cornal Hendricks’ wing.” Of course, Hendrick does pose a big attacking threat of his own having scored five tries in his seven Tests to date, so Tomane will also have to aim up in defence.
Ben McCalman v Duane Vermeulen
Wycliff Palu’s continued absence through concussion provides McCalman with another chance to lock down a starting role for the Wallabies. The Western Force star has shrugged off the challenge of Scott Higginbotham to hold on to the No. 8 jersey, but will have his hands full up against the big Boks pack and particularly Vermeulen.
The abrasive back-rower was a powerhouse when he went toe-to-toe with reigning world player of the year Kieran Read in Wellington a fortnight ago. The Wallabies — in particular prop James Slipper, who was on the receiving of a brutal hit that was harshly penalised in Perth a fortnight ago — also know full well the damage that Vermeulen can cause. McCalman was solid in Australia’s narrow win over Argentina last start, and his ball-carrying and strong work-rate will be needed to help the Wallabies match the Springboks up front.
Bernard Foley v Handre Pollard
Foley’s return to the No. 10 jersey has coincided with back-to-back victories for the Wallabies, and he has the chance to steer them to a drought-breaking third-straight win when he starts a Test on the road for the first time. The Waratahs star’s attacking stats make for good reading — two line breaks, six tackle busts, and 122 run metres in those two triumphs — and he continues to impress as a goal-kicker.
Along with his clutch match-winning conversion against South Africa in Perth, Foley is yet to miss a penalty goal attempt in this season’s Rugby Championship, landing nine from nine. This weekend he’ll line up for the first time against young gun Pollard, who wins his first Test start against the Wallabies after being overlooked for the Perth loss. The occasion certainly won’t worry the 20-year-old, who was thrust into South Africa’s subsequent clash with the All Blacks in Wellington. He looked right at home against the world champions on their home turf, and should feel even more comfortable on home soil.
Prediction
The Wallabies are yet to find consistency this year, but will need to do so if they are to have any hope against the Springboks at their hoodoo venue.
Both the Wallabies and the Springboks need to win to stay in contact with the All Blacks at the top of the table, while at the same time hoping Argentina can pull off an upset against the All Blacks.
The Springboks have the obvious strength in the forwards and will be looking to exploit that later today. The Wallabies will need to ‘hang-tough’ to be in with a chance of pulling off an upset against the No. 2 ranked team.
The Wallabies have made a habit of making matches close, and I don’t expect that to change tonight, however, I can’t see them getting on top of the Springboks in Cape Town. I’m tipping the South Africa by 5 in a last 10 nail-biter.
Teams
Australia: Israel Folau, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Tevita Kuridrani, Matt Toomua, Joe Tomane, Bernard Foley, Nick Phipps; James Slipper, Saia Faingaa, Sekope Kepu, Sam Carter, Rob Simmons, Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper (captain), Ben McCalman.
Bench: James Hanson, Benn Robinson, Ben Alexander, James Horwill, Scott Higginbotham, Nic White, Kurtley Beale, Rob Horne.
South Africa: Willie le Roux, Cornal Hendricks, Jan Serfontein, Jean de Villiers (captain), Bryan Habana, Handre Pollard, Francois Hougaard; Tendai Mtawarira, Adriaan Strauss, Jannie du Plessis, Eben Etzebeth, Victor Matfield, Marcell Coetzee, Teboho Mohoje, Duane Vermeulen.
Bench: Bismarck du Plessis, Trevor Nyakane, Marcel van der Merwe, Bakkies Botha, Schalk Burger, Cobus Reinach, Pat Lambie, JP Pietersen.
