The Waratahs enter the biggest game of the season on a club best, eight game winning streak after sweeping all before them in a record breaking season.
The Tahs have recorded the most trys, most points, conceded the least, boast the competition’s top try scorer, Israel Folau and the season’s top points scorer, Bernard Foley. They are on a nine game winning streak at home and are undefeated there this season. The Sydney based team has won their last seven games by an average of 24 points and are hosting their first final.
Yet, the stat that has popped up more than any other this week is the Waratahs horror run against the Crusaders. The boys from Christchurch have defeated the Tahs in the last 11 games they have played; including the 2005 and 2008 finals played in Christchurch.
Michael Chieka says history counts for nothing, but try saying that to the Crusaders big three trio, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter and Kieran Read who have made a habit of winning the big games when it matters most.
The Tahs have 14 internationals in their line-up today, with Alofa Alofa as the only in the backline never to have represented his country, so we’ll give a slight edge to the Waratahs there.
The ‘Saders have 11 test starters starting and will look to target the Waratahs in the set peice, an area of great strength for the Kiwi team this year. The Tahs gave away two penalties in the scrum against the Brumbies and their lineout has completely gone “head over biscuit” since Dave Dennis suffered a season ending knee injury.
The Crusaders have one of the lowest tackle success rates of the competition this year (85%) and missed a whopping 21 tackles in their semi-final victory against the Sharks, something they cannot allow against a team which boasts Folau, Beale, AAC and Foley.
The Crusaders have given away the second lowest amount of penalties throughout the season but lost discipline against the Sharks, giving away 13. Similar ill-discipline could prove costly against the Tahs.
Key Players
Waratahs: Every player in the Waratahs line-up has had a huge impact at one time or another throughout the year, and their relatively unchanged team list throughout the season is testament to that.
Kurtley Beale, Israel Folay and Bernard Foley have been their bread and butter in the winning formula this year.
Folau has topped the charts for tries (12), offloads (47) and clean breaks (26) this season, and the Waratahs will look for him to play a key role having been shut out of the game by the Brumbies; look for him to seek involvement in fresh areas of the game – a Plan B – if the Crusaders succeed in shutting down the supply line.
Beale has played some of his best rugby this season, creating a strong combination with Foley and Folau, and he has scored/assisted in 18 tries (eight of which he scored), made 12 line breaks and 225 carries; his link play with Foley, the top points scorer this season, is essential for the Tahs.
Michael Hooper also will be essential in the Waratahs’ game. Taking over the captaincy from Dennis, he leads the side from the front with a cool head and stays calm under pressure. Hooper is a top tackler – making 10 last week – as well as a strong ball runner; he beat two defenders and made 15 metres against the Brumbies.
Crusaders: Despite the side facing a few hiccups throughout the season, the Crusaders returned to their best in time for the finals with several players key on the rise.
Nemani Nadolo has been a revelation for the Crusaders, scoring 11 tries, making 61 tackle busts and 25 clean breaks in his 13 appearances this year; he made a huge 111 metres last week against the Sharks. He is a potent figure in the Crusaders backline, and his ability to find the try line could be the making or breaking of the Crusaders.
Working closely alongside Nadolo, Colin Slade will also play a huge part in the Crusaders game. Slade has led his backline to the finals and, alongside Dan Carter last week, provided a fly-half masterclass; his strong kicking game will be an instrumental part in the Crusaders’ plans.
Despite missing a fair chunk of the season through injury, Kieran Read is sure to play a huge part in the Crusaders game. A dominating figure up front, a strong ball runner and link player, the 2013 IRB Player of the Year is sure to take charge early. He ran 62 metres last week alone, and he will be a huge threat in broken play.
Prediction
It all revolves around peaking at the right time, and the Crusaders current form is ominous. They strangely spluttered at times this year, but have come into the finals in fine form.
Waratahs will certainly irritate and threaten – especially if their attack gets enough quality possession to unleash Israel Folau, Alofa Alofa and Kurtley Beale on a regular basis. But the Crusaders will do all they can to fragment the Waratahs’ ball – focusing on what are clearly their weak points of a faltering lineout and a scrum that is above average but can occasionally be exposed.
Many in the press have beat-up and rubbished the Waratahs set piece, and because of that I have little doubt the Tahs forwards will be fired up for a big performance, and they have shown they can get it right…at times. If the Tahs scrum and lineout manages to hang tough, the Crusaders may find themselves struggling.
Both teams love to play entertaining rugby, and I’m tipping plenty of points being scored. But the Waratahs have the luxury of being able to have test stars on the bench. Because of this depth, and a record Super Rugby crowd getting right behind the Tahs, that should be enough to scrape across the line. Tahs by 4.
Teams
Waratahs
Israel Folau, Alofa Alofa, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Kurtley Beale, Rob Horne, Bernard Foley, Nick Phipps, Wycliff Palu, Michael Hooper (capt), Stephen Hoiles, Jacques Potgieter, Kane Douglas, Sekope Kepu, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson. Reserves: Tola Latu, Paddy Ryan, Jeremy Tilse, Will Skelton, Mitch Chapman, Pat McCutcheon, Brendan McKibbon, Matt Carraro, Taqele Naiyaravoro, Peter Betham (two to be omitted).
Crusaders
Israel Dagg, Kieron Fonotia, Ryan Crotty, Dan Carter, Nemani Nadolo, Colin Slade, Andy Ellis, Kieran Read (captain), Matt Todd, Richie McCaw, Dominic Bird, Sam Whitelock, Owen Franks, Corey Flynn, Wyatt Crockett. Reserves: Ben Funnell, Nepo Laulala, Jimmy Tupou, Jordan Taufua, Willi Heinz, Tom Taylor, Johnny McNicholl.
