RWC Semi-Final 2 Match Prediction: Argentina vs Australia

The penultimate match of this year’s world cup, this rematch of two southern hemisphere rivals should be a fascinating watch. Argentina dismissed a powerful Irish side with ease a week ago, shocking the rugby world to its core, and making headlines even in the US, where the New York Times wrote a full article on the upset. While the Wallabies did struggle to dismiss the Scots last week, the way they dismissed both the Welsh and the English caught the eye of many. While it’s true that the Wallabies ran riot when these two met in The Rugby Championship, the Pumas now have more momentum, confidence, and self-belief. This will be a thrilling fixture, and I hope we see more exciting rugby from both sides.

Argentina possess probably the world’s best loosehead prop in Marcos Ayerza, and the battle between Ayerza and the technical Mike Ross was fascinating to watch. This week, he faces a much improved Sekope Kepu, and he will need to ensure his form is precise against the Australian beast. Hooker Agustin Creevy showed his ball handling prowess on the big stage last week, reminding us why he has been dubbed “the Argentine Sonny Bill”. He and Wallaby Skipper Stephen Moore will be everywhere, and both will give a masterclass in leadership as they have done throughout the tournament. Ramiro Herrera gave Cian Healy headaches last week, and James Slipper knows he cannot rely on his ability in the loose in this match, but Herrera needs to watch his discipline. I suspect the Wallabies will miss the presence of Brumbies tighthead Scott Sio.

After a series of good displays, Kane Douglas remains the choice at 4, with Rob Simmons getting a start at 5 alongside him. These two will give the Wallabies more quality options in the lineout, and the physicality of Douglas will be a great asset against the Pumas. Guido Petti and Thomas Lavanini were outstanding against Ireland last week. Iain Henderson had been one of the stars of the tournament, and he was shut down by these two throughout the match. Their power and strength has allowed them to develop into high caliber locks for Argentina, and their growth as players has really shown.

When Ireland fans saw Peter O’Mahony and Sean O’Brien were unavailable against the Pumas, they would have smelled trouble, but could never have predicted how badly their rebuilt back row would be battered. Jordi Murphy and Chris Henry were pushed around like schoolboys by the Argentinian combination of Pablo Matera, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, and Leonardo Senatore. These three outplayed their Irish rivals in every facet of play, a worry for the Wallabies. The good news is, the Pooper is back. Scott Fardy can once again welcome back his old pals Michael Hooper and David Pocock, who will match the Argentine intensity throughout the match. The battle between these two units will be outstanding to watch, and will go a long way in determining the outcome of the match.

For two weeks, Bernard Foley was the star of the show at this year’s World Cup, with great games against England and Wales. Against Scotland, he left much to be desired, and head coach Michael Cheika will want to see his fly half bounce back this week. Martin Landajo and Nicolas Sanchez remain the starters for Argentina after their brilliant showing against the Irish. Sanchez in particular stood out, with his flawless kicking reminding the Wallabies that any penalties inside their half will be punished with ruthless efficiency. Sanchez also put on a great attacking show and the Wallabies must be wary in defence.

Argentina have brought back Marcelo Bosch now that his suspension is over, and he will give them a lively attacking option in the midfield, to compliment that of Juan Martin Hernandez. Hernandez played well last week, but the real star was Matias Moroni, who outplayed Keith Earls throughout the match, but will be forced to miss out this week. For once Matt Giteau does not have a massive presence lining up across from him, so I wonder if we’ll see him attempt to attack the line with more straightness, looking to open gaps for the in form Tevita Kuridrani. Kuridrani made a huge impact against Scotland, scoring a key try and setting up another with a brilliant run.

There is plenty of experience on the Australian wings, with Toulon star Drew Mitchell and Bordeaux bound Adam Ashley-Cooper. These two have had no problem finding the line throughout the tournament, and I suspect they will be very active throughout the match, sniping for holes in the Pumas defensive line. Israel Folau is back at fullback after a week off, and hopefully is back to full fitness on his ankle. It’s been a nagging problem that has slowed him down, and speed is one thing he cannot afford to lose against this Argentinian group. Santiago Cordero and Juan Imhoff have been two of the biggest stars so far in the tournament, running rings around nearly every side they’ve played. Against Ireland, they could not be stopped, and any Wallaby miscues will see them and Joaquin Tuculet racing towards the try line.

Dean Mumm and Ben McCalman will bring a lot of physicality off the bench for the Wallabies, but that will be counteracted by the Pumas young No.8 Facundo Isa. Isa is a like for like replacement for Senatore, and his power with ball in hand made a huge impact a week ago. Matt Toomua and Kurtley Beale will straighten the Wallaby attack late in the match, and no doubt cause the Pumas a lot of trouble in defence. Daniel Hourcade will be calling Tomas Cubelli, Jeronimo De La Fuente, and 2007 RWC star Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino into action. These three can really up the tempo, and if the Wallabies are not careful, can cause mayhem in attack.

This is one of the toughest predictions I’ve had to make in a while. The Pumas are in incredible form, and are carrying so much momentum, while the Wallabies (stronger on paper) looked lazy and lackadaisical in their match against Scotland. I think that if the Pumas can come out and punch Australia in the mouth in the first 10 minutes like they did against Ireland, then the odds are in their favor, but if they are in any way slow from the kickoff, I think the Wallabies have the depth to take this one.

Prediction: Australia 29- Argentina 27