RWC Quarterfinal #1: South Africa vs Wales Preview

In the very first knock out match of the 2015 Rugby World Cup, we will be treated to a match between two sides that have been forced to overcome a fair amount of adversity to reach this stage. South Africa have been forced to bounce back from their shocking loss to Japan, but worse still the loss of their inspirational captain Jean De Villiers. As for Wales, they have been blighted with injury after injury, that has forced their hand with a selection that no one would have predicted even 3 months ago. Even still they were able to put away hosts England, and pushed the dominant Australians to the ragged edge last week, and will want to get a win this time around.

Wales have gone with the front row that many have been calling for ever since the end of the 6 Nations, with the experienced Gethin Jenkins, joined by youngsters Scott Baldwin and Samson Lee. We know what Jenkins is capable of in open play, but Welsh hopes will be relying on accurate throws from Baldwin and scrum control from the massive presence of Lee. Tendai Mtawarira starts at loosehead, as he has done so often, for the Boks and Bismarck Du Plessis, back at his best, starts at hooker. 24 year old Frans Malherbe starts at tight head, while the experienced Jannie Du Plessis is dropped to the bench. It’s a bold call from coach Heyneke Meyer, but one that Springbok fans have been calling for all year.

Luke Charteris and Alun Wyn Jones make a strong and experienced second row for Wales, and they will look to use Charteris’s height to disrupt the Springboks potent lineout. Wyn Jones has a great work rate, and you can expect to see his physicality leaving a real mark on this match. South Africa are forced to wait yet longer for the return of captain Victor Matfield, who remains unavailable due to injury. That said Lood De Jager has been in great form throughout the tournament, and his partnership with Eben Etzebeth will cause huge issues for opponents at lineout time.

Wales have returned to their more conventional back row, featuring Dan Lydiate, Sam Warburton, and Taulupe Faletau. Lydiate adds his impressive chop tackling to the Welsh game plan, and he will look to keep South African ball carriers well behind the gainline. Warburton is one of the best all around back rowers in international rugby, and he will want to step up on the big stage. South Africa pose a potent counterpunch, with Francois Louw, Schalk Burger, and Duane Vermeulen making for a very well balanced back row. Vermeulen will carry like a man possessed, while Louw controls the breakdown and Burger operates as a leader and link player. Burger and Louw are dominant players at the ruck point, and the Welsh must get them off the ball quickly.

Gareth Davies has been in great form since stepping in for the injured Rhys Webb, and this has allowed Dan Biggar to play as he was before. Biggar is good under the high ball, and his superb goal kicking brings a unique threat for the Springboks to worry about. Fourie Du Preez starts at 9 for the Boks, and his considerable experience will be a great asset to the side. 21 year old Handre Pollard starts at 10 for the Boks, and his attacking style of play will bring a lot of danger to this young backline. Pollard has a bright future, but South African fans will want to see him deliver on some of his potential now.

Wales have their hands tied in the centers and have been forced to start 20 year old Tyler Morgan at outside center. Morgan will have a reliable presence inside him, with the experience of British and Irish lions stalwart Jamie Roberts. Roberts is the key to Welsh success in the backs, and if he can cross the gainline, the Boks may find themselves playing catchup. Their young center pairing of Damian De Allende and Jesse Kriel has made mincemeat of so many of their opponents, and any lapses from the Welsh will be swiftly exploited.

South Africa have brought their most in form trio to play in the back three, with the oft scoring JP Pietersen and the record breaking Bryan Habana on the wings, and of course the explosive Willie Le Roux at fullback. Any issues with width will be pounced upon by these three, but one thing that is often overlooked is their defensive brilliance. Pietersen and Habana are both masters of line speed, and love nothing more than a floated ball that they can take the other way. For Wales, Gareth Anscombe looked very comfortable at fullback last week against the Wallabies, and with the Lions pairing of North and Cuthbert on the wings, this should be a dangerous unit. Any one on one situation will be dangerous with these two in the lineup, and the Welsh flyers and do some real damage in space.

For Wales, Justin Tipuric and James Hook will provide the impact off the bench, with their respective danger with ball in hand a major worry for the Springbok fans. Willem Alberts and Jean Serfontein are devastating weapons for the Boks to bring into play late in the match, and expect them to have a major impact.

Wales have been gallant in overcoming adversity at this World Cup. Their performances against England and Australia, hamstrung by injury after injury were admirable. Sadly though, I can’t see them progressing any further. The Boks have bounced back so well, and have looked unstoppable in their run for glory, whereas Wales look more and more tired every time they play. Wales, it’s been real, but I think it’s time we say farewell.

Prediction: South Africa 24- Wales 17