Rugby World Cup Final: New Zealand vs Australia

It may not be the final everyone wanted, although it never was going to be. It certainly isn’t the final that most of us had predicted, and certainly none of the Northern Hemisphere sides saw this one coming. Australia have made a remarkable comeback from the debacles that plagued them throughout the last World Cup cycle, while the All Blacks have cruised, steadily dominant for the last 4 years. There have been a few blips on the radar, but Steve Hansen has been quick to fix them, and his side has done so with ruthless efficiency. The latest team to discover this was the Wallabies. One week after their monumental victory over the All Blacks, they were humiliated at Eden Park, with the All Blacks reminding the world that they mean business. It’s all on the line in the ultimate match of the Rugby World Cup, and I am counting the hours until kickoff…well I would be if I could count past 4.

Neither side has suffered much due to injury, and the Wallabies will welcome the return of loosehead prop Scott Sio, who has played a huge role in shoring up the once weak Australian scrum. Captain Stephen Moore starts at hooker, and is joined by Sekope Kepu, who I believe has been the best prop of the tournament. Kepu will be a handful for New Zealand in the loose, but his improvement in the scrum has been incredible to watch. After the loss of Tony Woodcock and Wyatt Crockett, the All Blacks have to start Joe Moody at loosehead. To be honest, when they say they “only have Joe Moody” it’s reminiscent of Donald Trump saying he had to start out with “only” a one million dollar loan from his father, I just don’t have much sympathy. Dane Coles is an electric player at hooker, and Owen Franks is a high quality option for the Kiwis. The front row will be a tight contest, that will be decided in open play as much as in the scrum.

The second row is the area where, on paper at least, the All Blacks should have a major edge. Wallaby pair Kane Douglas and Rob Simmons are in outstanding form, there can be no denying that, but they are up against two of the world’s best in Brodie Retaillick and Sam Whitelock. If the Wallaby locks can hold their own at lineout time and cope with the dizzying skillsets of the All Black stalwarts, then the chances of a Wallaby win are much higher.

The legendary Richie McCaw lines out for the All Blacks for the last time, and he has two remarkable athletes alongside him in the back row. Jerome Kaino starts at 6, and Kieran Reid, looking to bounce back from an uncharacteristically weak performance against the Springboks, joins him at no.8. The All Blacks will want to send McCaw, truly one of the legends of the international game, out on a high note, and in fairness, he has earned it. The Wallabies will make this a very difficult goal to attain however, with their trio of Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, and David Pocock. These three have dominated the breakdown against every single side they have faced, and their work at the breakdown will be at the very heart of Michael Cheika’s plans to dethrone the champions. The winner of the battle between these two positional groups, I think, will be the winner of the match.

Two clever scrum halves go head to head with Will Genia and Aaron Smith. These two will try to run the game, speeding things in attack, keeping momentum, but both will also look to use their box kicking game to get their wingers involved and keep their forwards on the front foot. Dan Carter and Bernard Foley have been the two standout 10’s of the tournament (with the exception of Nicolas Sanchez) with both proving they are clearly two of the world’s best. Foley has shown a calm, collected, demeanor from the tee, and a willingness to attack the line with ball in hand. Dan Carter has shown that he is still the player that he was 10 years ago. His incredible display against France should worry the Wallaby supporters, and if he continues to play in that manner, I suspect we will see New Zealand lift the trophy.

Matt Giteau and Tevita Kuridrani have been two of the stars of the tournament. Their defence has yet to truly let the Wallabies down, and in attack they both threaten the line every time they get the ball in hand. Kuridrani in particular has really stepped up in the knockout stages, so look for him to be influential in the Australian attack. As for the All Blacks, they go with the most experienced center pairing in international rugby, with Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith. Nonu has been in remarkable form throughout the tournament, thanks to his diverse skillset. He can kick, run, hit, and offload in a way that few others can. He and Smith may not breakaway and score try after try, but you can rest assured that they will be unbreakable in defence.

Adam Ashley Cooper and Drew Mitchell ran the Pumas ragged a week ago, and they will be fired up to take on the defending world champions. Both have been in simply remarkable form since the beginning of the tournament, and if they are given the opportunity, they will attack relentlessly. Israel Folau has been deathly quiet since the start of the World Cup, but there is no better time for him to step up than now, on Rugby’s biggest stage. One hopes his ankle is fully recovered, as he can have a huge impact for the Wallabies. The All Blacks have a devastating trio of riches in the back three, with Julian Savea, Nehe Milner-Skudder, and Ben Smith. They have the ability to dominate under the high ball and with ball in hand, and solid defence will be required from the Wallabies if they are to keep these three out of the try zone.

The Wallabies have plenty of impact players to bring off the bench, with Dean Mumm and Ben McCalman in the forwards as well as Matt Toomua and Kurtley Beale in the backs. The physicality added by Mumm, and the attacking prowess from Toomua and Beale could cause the All Blacks some trouble. The All Blacks have opted against bringing a specialty second row on the bench, with Victor Vito and Sam Cane, both of whom bring plenty of x-factor with ball in hand. Tawera Kerr-Barlow has completed his recovery from the horrific leg break he suffered against South Africa a year ago. Sonny Bill Williams can do a lot of damage off the bench, and the Wallabies will want to shut him down before the gainline.

I am expecting a fantastic match. There will be a lot of physicality early, and if either side cannot keep the pace, the other is more than capable of running away with it. In an ideal world, we would see both of these two fantastic sides at their attacking best, throwing offloads, stepping, and swinging the ball wide with ease. The reality is, however, that we are unlikely to see this style of play in the World Cup final. Australia have bounced back unbelievably well, and they have been dominant throughout the tournament, but I think the All Blacks greater experience and greater comfort on this stage will see them through.

Prediction: New Zealand 17- Australia 14