RBP Match Preview: South Africa vs Samoa

With South Africa losing to Japan, and Scotland then trouncing the Japanese, this match has taken on the utmost importance to Heyneke Meyer’s side. Should South Africa lose this weekend, in all likelihood they will have to kiss their dreams of World Cup Glory goodbye. The Samoans however, smell blood in the water, and an opportunity to get their names in the history books, especially after all the political issues they have faced over the last 5 years.

I would expect the Boks to hold the upper hand in the scrum. Tendai Mtawarira is joined by Adriaan Strauss, who made a big impact off the bench last time out. Jannie Du Plessis is the lone survivor of the brothers, as Bismarck has been dropped after a very lackluster showing against Japan. Sakaria Taulafo and Motu Matu’u are both very good operators in open play and in the scrum, but if Samoa are to have a chance of holding their own at scrum time, it will come down to the work of Toulouse tighthead, Census Johnston.

Expect plenty of physicality throughout this fixture, but the majority of it is likely to come from the second rows. Samoa have called upon Filo Paulo and Iosefa Tekori to make up their locks, while South Africa can rely on Eben Etzebeth and Victor Matfield. Etzebeth’s talent and aggression will be used to counteract that of the Samoans while Matfield’s experience will be of great use to the Boks should they find themselves in trying times. Additionally these two give South Africa a dominant lineout that cannot be challenged by many the world over.

TJ Ioane, Jack Lam and Ofisa Treviranus make up a frighteningly powerful and dangerous back row, and if they can cause South Africa the same problems they caused the USA, the Boks may find themselves needing to spend a little extra time in the ice baths after the match. Schalk Burger moves to flanker for South Africa, and is joined there by Francois Louw, in what is an excellent pairing. The big news comes in the form of the return of Springbok favorite Duane Vermeulen. Thats right folks, Thor is back, and I expect he will be very fired up for this encounter. I’m not expecting him to be at full speed, but expect plenty of big hits and a smattering of exciting runs.

The experienced Fourie Du Preez will be partnered with Handre Pollard, who once again must win back the 10 shirt from Patrick Lambie. Pollard is a devastating attacking player when on form, but he is still young and relatively inconsistent, so one can understand Meyer’s hesitant about using him. Samoa will call upon the services of an outstanding scrumhalf in Kahn Fotuali’i. Fotuali’i has been a great weapon for Northampton over the years, and you can expect him to cause the Springboks a lot of trouble around the fringes for the entirety of the match.

Samoa have stuck with the pairing of Rey Lee-lo and Paul Perez, and these two will provide plenty of attacking spark. If the Springboks give these two a lot of space, you can be very sure that they will score. Damian De Allende steps in at 12, as Jean De Villiers moves to 13 and Jesse Kriel is dropped to the bench. Personally, I feel that it is time for South Africa to move on from JDV. He is a legend of the game, and a personal hero of mine, but as conservative minded as I am, I cannot understand why Meyer would disregard the dominance of the De Allende, Kriel axis in the centers. Furthermore, South Africa are 0-2 with De Villiers in the lineup this year, with appalling losses to Argentina and of course, Japan. This is unacceptable, and at a certain point, something has to give.

Alesana Tuilagi will be looking to do a lot of damage off the wing, and rest assured, if he can get a clear run at Pollard, the 21 year old will be in for a very long day. Ken Pisi is a great all around player for Samoa on the right wing. Samoa’s most dangerous player is to be found elsewhere however, in the form of the magical feet of Tim Nanai-Williams. Perhaps the Chiefs most dangerous attacking force in Super Rugby, Nanai-Williams can tear the Boks to shreds if he is given the chance. South Africa have gone with experience in their selections of Bryan Habana and J.P. Pietersen, who are a devastating attacking tandem. South Africa have their own x-factor fullback in Willie Le Roux, whose pace and agility have been giving teams headaches for years.

South Africa have a typically strong bench, featuring names like Schalk Brits, Lood De Jager, Patrick Lambie, and Jesse Kriel. Brits and Kriel in particular can be devastating weapons off the bench, so expect to see them striking often against tiring Samoan defenders. Samoa will be calling upon stars like Vaeva Tuilagi and the other Pisi brothers, Tusi and George. These players are also great at providing an immediate impact, and can swing the tide of the match in Samoa’s favor if they are at their best.

South Africa will be fired up this weekend, and they will know that they need to do to have any hope of reaching the quarterfinals. This means that they will be coming out with a fiery rage and intensity. If Samoa can survive that, roll with the punches for the first 10 or 20 minutes, and then continue to play smart, I think they will have a chance, if not, then they may find themselves on the wrong end of a hiding. I cant see Samoa being obliterated, but I think the scoreline will be heavily in South Africa’s favor.

Prediction: South Africa 47- Samoa 24