Preview: All Blacks v England

Next year’s world cup is undoubtedly the underlying subtext of the second test between New Zealand and England. Although, both sides still have underlying points to prove this weekend in Dunedin. 

The All Blacks came into last weeks encounter hot favorites to win, and scrapped together the most narrow of victories. So what do you do if your team under-performs? Why not reward them and pick the same team again?

Hansen reminds us that he can’t drop all the players who played poorly last week because he wouldn’t have enough players left to field a team this week. Sure, there was more than one All Black that had a stinker, aside from Suvea returning from injury, there are no changes to speak of at all what so ever, and that doesn’t make sense!

However, there is some logic to Hanson’s apparent madness. It’s very, very rare that you’d see the All Blacks play two poor games in a row, and no doubt, those given a second chance will respond in kind.

Julian Savea’s return from a minor knee injury and Manu Tuilagi’s shift to the wing sets up arguably the most mouth watering match-up of the year so far.

Some will scratch their heads and struggle to understand why England’s most destructive back-line runner is being banished to the wide outside. The answer is simple: Lancaster wants centres with outstanding distribution skills and argues Tuilagi could be even more lethal as an attacking menace off set plays. If there is a possibility of the big man being bombarded with high balls and twisted into knots defensively, bring it on. The positives – the raw power, the physicality, the improved midfield balance – are deemed sufficiently compelling to make it a risk worth taking.

While England coach Stuart Lancaster said he had been pleased with Tuilagi’s acceptance of the new role, Hansen felt the move could be an opportunity to exploit, particularly if flyhalf Aaron Cruden’s kicking game is in sync with the All Blacks chasers.

“On the wing, he’s going to have to work,” Hansen added.

“Wing is a totally different position than centre in that he can go wherever he wants to go, but at the same time he’s got to have the energy to do that.”

England’s immediate goal is to demonstrate their re-jigged team can challenge a virtually full-strength All Blacks side, who have now been together for two weeks and theoretically should have ironed out their performance issues in training.

A series-levelling victory by a team closer to his own ‘first-choice’ would also vindicate coach Stuart Lancaster’s World Cup plans, where he had openly said despite the strong performances from several players considered ‘second-string’ last week, they would likely have to make way in Dunedin.

“We knew selection for this test was always going to be tough, with the players who played at Eden Park putting their hands up and those who watched from the stands,” Lancaster said.

“With the (mid-week) Crusaders game coming up around the corner and the third test in Hamilton, all our squad will get opportunities which will be great experience as we continue to develop our depth in the build up to the World Cup.”

Blindside flanker Tom Wood was the only change in the starting pack, though Lancaster has added experience and bulk to the forwards on the bench, bringing in hooker Dylan Hartley, lock Courteny Lawes and number eight Billy Vunipola.

All missed the first test after arriving late in the country following the English club final.

The calculated redeployment of Tuilagi to the wing after 23 Tests in the centre is barely the half of it. The decision to keep faith with Geoff Parling, Ben Morgan and Rob Webber down the spine of the pack is highly symbolic, showing recent excellence will be rewarded whatever Lawes, Vunipola and Hartley have previously achieved. Lancaster has also had to get tough elsewhere and gone are Kyle Eastmond, James Haskell and Jonny May, all of whom did some good things in the first Test. Competition for places has not been as intense for over a decade.

It explains why the head coach has rarely sounded more upbeat about one of his selections, even though his side are 1-0 down in the series. He is already looking ahead to next year’s World Cup and recognising the impossibility of keeping the same team for every game. He wants hungry players capable of playing in more than one position if necessary.

How Billy Twelvetrees keeps getting a start, I don’t know… sure, he’s versatile and has good vision, but he’s never going to win you any games, and his defense is questionable. Surly New Zealand will be sending a few of their bigger men his way, no matter where England try to hide him.

A solid kick-chase game will be vital for England to hold on, any form of a broken line coming at the All Blacks back three will be punished severely.

Our Prediction

They say you can only play as well as your opponents allow you to, and well, England didn’t allow the All Blacks to play their natural game. In fact, it was arguably the worst they’ve played since pre world cup 2011.

However, having said that, I don’t think it’s possible for New Zealand that badly again. I expect a more spirited effort by their forwards, lead by Richie McCaw in establishing the quick ball and go-forward that was sorely missing last week.

England still have a lot to play for, they have to prove that they can put back-to-back performances together, and with their draw for the world cup next year, they’ll need to.

I don’t think we’ll see a massive scoreline blow-out, but I don’t think it’ll be as tight as it was last week either.

I’m tipping the All Blacks by 8.

Teams

New Zealand 15-Ben Smith, 14-Cory Jane, 13-Conrad Smith, 12-Ma’a Nonu, 11-Julian Savea, 10-Aaron Cruden, 9-Aaron Smith, 8-Jerome Kaino, 7-Richie McCaw (captain), 6-Liam Messam, 5-Sam Whitelock, 4-Brodie Retallick, 3-Owen Franks, 2-Dane Coles, 1-Tony Woodcock

Bench 16-Keven Mealamu, 17-Wyatt Crockett, 18-Charlie Faumuina, 19-Patrick Tuipulotu, 20-Victor Vito, 21-TJ Perenara, 22-Beauden Barrett, 23-Malakai Fekitoa

England 15-Mike Brown, 14-Manu Tuilagi, 13-Luther Burrell, 12-Billy Twelvetrees, 11-Marland Yarde, 10-Owen Farrell, 9-Danny Care; 8-Ben Morgan, 7-Chris Robshaw (captain), 6-Tom Wood, 5-Geoff Parling, 4-Joe Launchbury, 3-David Wilson, 2-Rob Webber, 1-Joe Marler

Bench 16-Dylan Hartley, 17-Matt Mullan, 18-Kieran Brookes, 19-Courtney Lawes, 20-Billy Vunipola, 21-Ben Youngs, 22-Freddie Burns, 23-Chris Ashton

Referee Jaco Peyper (South Africa)