4 Teams remain in the running for Europes greatest club rugby prize. Of these 4, 3 remain from a season ago, and between them some of the best pedigree in European rugby. Toulon look to make it three titles in a row, while Saracens would love to get another shot at the title, and makeup for last seasons errors. Clermont, often overlooked as people stare agape at Toulon, are not to be underestimated, as they proved when they dismissed Northampton. And of course. Leinster, floundering in the Pro12 of late, but eager to shock the world.
Clermont vs Saracens
A year ago this fixture saw Saracens blast Clermont to the tune of 46-6, however things will almost certainly be different this year. Saracens will welcome back the services of Brad Barritt, who captains the side, and Owen Farrell who will be on the bench, but they will need to be in top form to hold off this explosive Clermont side.
Vincent Debaty, Benjamin Kayser, and Davit Zirakashvili make up an imposing front row, but Saracens haven’t pulled any punches either, naming Mako Vunipola, Jamie George, and Petrus Du Plessis. George has been in great form this season, and Sarries have an secret weapon in Schalk Brits on the bench.
Saracens duo of George Kruis and Jim Hamilton will have their work cut out for them facing off against the experienced and physical pair of Sebastien Vahaamahina and Jamie Cudmore. Last week these two won the physical battle with Courtney Lawes and Samu Manoa, and if that is not a statement of intent, what is?
Young Maro Itoje’s magical season continues as he is named at 6 for Saracens, along with Jacques Burger and Billy Vunipola. Last year, Burger shut down Clermont en route to a man of the match performance, and you can probably expect more of the same from the Namibian flanker. For Clermont, its more size in the lineup with Julien Bonnaire, Julien Bardy, and Damien Chouly, rounding out an immense and powerful pack.
The half back pairing of Richard Wigglesworth and Charlie Hodgson has yet to let Saracens down this season, and they will need to be at their very best once again if they are to lead this Saracens backline to victory against their impressive French opponents. Brock James has led Clermont to victory time and time again, and his cool head and years of experience could be just what his side needs for a win.
Clermont stick with the center pairing of the magical Wesley Fofana and the wily fox, Jonathan Davies. For Saracens, Brad Barritt starts at 12, and perhaps his completely opposing style of play to Fofana will be an advantage. Marcelo Bosch, hero of the quarter-final against Racing Metro retains his spot at 13.
In the back three, both sides have named potent finishers. Clermont have selected Napolioni Nalaga, Nao Seru Nakaitaci, and Nick Abendanon, who tore Northampton to shreds. Sarries have made a big call in starting Chris Wyles, who is in flying form, over David Strettle, while Chris Ashton and Alex Goode round out a deadly back three.
This match should be an absolute firestorm. Both sides are near full strength, and both have been in fantastic form in recent weeks. Saracens will be looking to rekindle the flames that sparked them on their run to the final a season ago, but Clermont have the pedigree. Off the bench, Clermont can bring the likes of Morgan Parra, Camille Lopez, and Aurelien Rougerie, but Saracens can fight fire with fire by bringing on, Neil De Kock, Owen Farrell, and David Strettle. There is very little between these two sides, and that will almost certainly be reflected in the final scoreline.
Prediction: Clermont 27- Saracens 25
Toulon vs Leinster
These two teams won the Heineken Cup on 5 of the last 6 occasions, and still represent two of the most vaunted teams in Europe. Its odd then, that one of them should be so much of an underdog. That said, Leinster have been in woeful form at times this season, and the loss to Dragons in the Pro12 last week has typified a season that has failed to live up to expectations. However, Leinster proved against Bath that they were not there for the whipping, and any win against this side must be earned, but if ever there was a side to earn it, it would be Toulon.
In the front row, Xavier Chiocci, Guilhem Guirado, and Carl Hayman make up a powerful and experienced front row that will face off against Cian Healy, Sean Cronin, and Mike Ross. Part of Leinster’s plan may be to use the dynamism of Healy and Cronin to keep their larger, more senile opposition on the move, and hopefully, out of breath.
Bakkies Botha and Ali Williams make up the second row for Toulon, and Leinster fans will be hoping that Botha doesn’t try to eat any of the Leinster players with his manic aggression. Devin Toner will be a pain for Toulon at lineout time, and Mike McCarthy will do what he always does, be a nuisance to the opposition all over the field.
The battle of the back row is liable to be the most important matchup in the fixture. Leinster have stuck with the trio that bettered their opponents from Bath, and selected Jordi Murphy at 6, with Sean O’Brien at 7 and Jamie Heaslip, the captain, at 8. Toulon have selected South African Juan Smith at 6, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe at 7, and Chris Masoe at 8. Interestingly, Steffon Armitage has been dropped to the bench. Last time around Toulon’s loose forwards won the battle at the breakdown, and consequently, the game. If the Leinster do not win the breakdown, then they should not expect a different result.
Sebastien Tillous-Borde plays at 9 for Toulon, while Frederic Michalak remains at 10. Leinster fans will be praying he has one of his off days, although he looked nothing like it against Wasps. Leinster stick with Isaac Boss at scrumhalf, and will be counting on Eoin Reddan to have a big impact off the bench. Jimmy Gopperth has been in good form, scoring a try against Dragons, and setting up another, so maybe he can spark this Leinster attack, which has been lethargic so far.
Magical Matt Giteau is back at 12 for Toulon, and he will be looking to unleash the monstrous bulk of Mathieu Bastareaud. If Giteau can find the form that he showed in last seasons final, Leinster could be in for a long afternoon. Ian Madigan kept the scoreboard ticking for Leinster with his spotless kicking, and the boys in blue will need more of the same. Outside him, Ben Te’o starts at 13, and his strength could actually make for a better matchup against Bastareaud than the 35 year old Brian O’Driscoll with a niggling calf problem and a massive weight deficit. Te’o is in great form, and he could cause Toulon a few issues.
Toulon’s star studded back three could pose real problems for Leinster, as Bryan Habana, Delon Armitage, and Leigh Halfpenny lineout for the French side. Leinster will have to play tight defence against the pace of Habana, and Halfpenny will mercilessly punish any disciplinary errors with his immaculate kicking. For Leinster, Luke Fitzgerald’s magical feet offer danger out wide, while Fergus McFadden will be looking to add to his list of victims after another crunching tackle last time out against Bath. Rob Kearney will represent a major threat in attack, and will look to dominate the aerial game for Leinster.
All things considered, there is every reason to believe that a Leinster team, at its very best, could defeat this Toulon side. However, this season Leinster have not been at their very best, and Toulon will look to exploit this. If Leinster do not win this game, their season will be regarded as a failure, so they will be motivated, and the opportunity to defeat one of the most dominant club sides in the world with have them licking their chops, however they have not been clinical enough to ever look like a side capable of defeating Toulon, and I cannot see that suddenly changing this weekend.
Prediction: Toulon 29- Leinster 26