6 Nations Round 4 Preview

As American rugby clubs begin to dig themselves free of the mountains of white powder covering their pitches no Karmichael Hunt has not been to town, it was just a brutal winter, The 6 Nations sides will be preparing to hunker down for the final, two battles. For some, this week is a must win for the title, while others will be looking to regain some dignity and avoid a certain piece of wooden cutlery.

In what is always one of the 6 Nations best matches, Ireland take on a resurgent Wales. After a tumultuous autumn, and a poor start to the tournament against England, Wales have bounced back, and are in contention for the title once again. Ireland are looking to set a new record, with their 11th consecutive win, and keep their Grand Slam hopes alive.

Both front rows have been in very good form. Jack McGrath is rapidly growing, and he will face off against Samson Lee another young prop who is in flying form. Lee is well conditioned and does a lot of good work despite being large enough to have his own gravitational pull. Gethin Jenkins was back to his old tricks last time out against France, and he will hope to be a nuisance in the loose yet again.

We see two like for like matchups in the second row. Luke Charteris and Devin Toner are two lanky, octopus armed, lineout experts, that go about their work quietly and efficiently. Alun Wyn Jones and Paul O’Connell are two excellent leaders. Competitive fireballs that will put their body on the line for their team time and time again. Charteris was a bit more active in the loose against France than Toner was against England, but the battle in the lineout will be fascinating. 

 Jamie Heaslip’s wolverine blood has done the trick again, and the battered Irish talisman returns at number 8 to face off with the ever dangerous Toby Faletau. Peter O’Mahony has been outstanding for Ireland during the tournament, but his opposite number, Dan Lydiate has also impressed, especially with his slick pass to set up Dan Biggar’s try. Sean O’Brien has had a terrible run of injuries in the last few months, and it begs the question, when Ireland travel, is O’Brien kept in a padded crate labeled “handle with care?” O’Brien has showed us, however, what he is capable of when he is healthy, and Sam Warburton will have his hands full this week.  

Conor Murray has matured into one of the worlds best scrum-halves over the last 12 months, and Rhys Webb has exploded onto the international stage. But whether Murray’s accurate kicking will see off the Welsh, or Webbs remarkable ability to spot gaps will give the Irish fits, will play a key role in the outcome of the match. Jonny Sexton played remarkably well last week. He outshone his English counterpart, George Ford in nearly every phase of the game, and his tone setting hit on Ford surely endeared Jonny “Ketchup Bottle” Sexton to front rowers all over the world. 

Jamie Roberts was awesome against France, and the constant go forward ball he gave Wales meant that they could dominate possession and territory. Couple this with the triumphant return of Jonathan Davies, and Irelands midfield could be in for a real battle. Robbie Henshaw has gotten better and better every week, and he has been working very well with Jared Payne, especially in defence. Henshaw and Payne’s aerial prowess may just be the difference in a match that promises to kick the leather off the ball.  

The Irish back three are faced with a major challenge, as the Welsh trio of Liam Williams, George (I always skip leg day) North, who went on a rampage to set up the Biggar try, and Leigh Halfpenny look to carve up the Irish. The Irish trio of Simon Zebo, Tommy Bowe, and Rob Kearney have been quietly efficient, and their kick chase has negated other dangerous wingers, such as Yoann Huget and Jonathan Joseph. You get the feeling that if this game is to break open, that decisive breakthrough will come from one of these two groups, and much of the game will rely on which of these two can have more of an impact. In a match as tight as this, a single contested high ball could be the difference, and these units will be more than ready for the challenge.  

In this fixture last year, Ireland’s discipline and their pack made the difference, and this year will be no different. Both sides boast frighteningly accurate kickers, and so any lapses in focus will likely result in points for the opposition. The battle between Jamie Roberts and Robbie Henshaw will also be vital, for if Henshaw allows Roberts to get ahead of steam, and give his side forward momentum, Wales could very easily take this match. However, perhaps the most important part of the match will be the forwards. Wales were obliterated by England’s scrum, which saw them lose, however, against Scotland and France, when they had the edge they came out on top. This is no coincidence, and there will be a lot of weight resting on the shoulders of McGrath, Best and Ross (as if the weight of Jenkins, Jarvis, and Lee wasn’t enough.

Prediction: Ireland 24- Wales 21

 

England vs Scotland:

The Calcutta Cup. Last year Scotland didn’t show up for this fixture, and were battered, suffering a humiliating 20-0 loss. Now, after losing to Italy Scotland absolutely need to get there act together if they are to avoid the wooden spoon. England have had their Grand Slam dream smashed by Ireland, but with a few changes to the side, they will want to make a statement, and what better way to do that then a resounding victory over their northern rivals.

Neither side has changed their front row, which is not surprising, but the reason why its not surprising, highlights the difference between the two sides. Scotland’s front row is the same because it is the best that they have on offer, and any change to it would be an admission of defeat. England haven’t changed theirs because the front row has been very good, and Stuart Lancaster wouldn’t want to unsettle the side, in other words, “dont fix what aint broke”.  

Jonny Gray has been a real standout in the tournament so far, but his brother’s injury means that Scotland have brought in Jim Hamilton of Saracens, who is very reliable backup. Courtney Lawes returns to the side, and will play alongside Dave Attwood. Sadly, young George Kruis, who has played very well, will be forced to step aside for now. 

England’s back row has been the key to their success. Ireland negated it as an advantage, and if Scotland cannot do the same they will struggle to win the match. The return of Dave Denton and Adam Ashe is a major boost, and they will add more dynamism to Scotland’s game. As for England, they will need James Haskell, and Billy Vunipola to return to the dominant ball carrying that they displayed early in the tournament. Chris Robshaw has been a dominant force, in the tackle and at the breakdown, and he will doubtless be giving the Scots headaches throughout the match, especially at ruck time. 

Greig Laidlaw has been a reliable kicker for Scotland, but questions have begun to surface about his decision making. Some feel that his service has been a bit slow, (he’ll be glad he doesn’t play with Jeremy Clarkson, we know how Jezza feels about slow service) and he will want to silence those critics. George Ford hit his first real speed bump last week, but he should bounce back. The return of Finn Russell bodes well for the Scots, but one has to wonder if he will be a bit rusty.  

The loss of Alex Dunbar will be difficult for Scotland, but young Matt Scott will take his opportunity with both hands, and remember, he has played in this tournament and delivered before. Mark Bennett and Jonathan Joseph are two of the tournaments most exciting young players. Joseph was nullified by Jared Payne last week, but if he can find some gaps in the Scottish line, he could really break this game open.

With Sean Lamont unavailable, and Tim Visser in poor form, Dougie Fife returns to the Scotland team, and he will be eager to make up for his errors against France. Tommy Seymour was one of a few bright spots for Scotland against Italy, and with Stuart Hogg he could really do some damage. Mike Brown’s return is a massive boost for England. Without him against Ireland, they didn’t look the same. Jack Nowell was constantly threatening the Irish line, and maybe he will be able to get the breakthrough he has been looking for, and quiet the Jonny May argument.  

With a new coach and a new mentality, Scotland promised their fans that this season would be different, however, it seems that very little has really changed. If Scotland want to prove to their fans that this is not a case of “meet the new boss, same as the old boss” then they will need to come out against England full of fire and emotion. England need to regain their composure, and return to the team they were in weeks 1 and 2, and a morale boosting win would do just the thing. In any case, this match promises to be one of intense emotions, and if things boil over into a fracas, perhaps Stuart Lancaster will bring Clarkson off the bench…

Prediction: England 23- Scotland 14

Italy vs France:

France have been a major letdown this season. They have played poorly in many of their games, and the exciting style of play for which they were once renowned is now

gone. Traveling to Rome, and facing off against an Italian side coming off a massive win over Scotland, France will need to up their play in order to silence their ever growing number of critics.

The French have not changed their front row, because the front row has never been the issue for France. Italy finally found some solidity last week in their set-pieces, and France will need to negate this as an advantage. Italy have plenty of experience and ability with Matias Aguero and Leonardo Ghiraldini, who could very well become a major irritant to the French team.

After an unimpressive start last week, Romain Taofifenua returns to the bench as an impact sub, while the 6’ 9” Alexandre Flanquart steps into the 4 shirt. Italy’s locks are one of the bright spots in their side, as both Biagi and Furno are world class locks. Both put in a lot of work, and both a very good operators in the lineout. Furno’s try last weekend was a fitting reward for a player who has had a quietly excellent season.

Sergio Parisse was masterful last week. He was everywhere, and looked dangerous whenever he had the ball. Thierry Dusautoir and Bernard Le Roux keep their starting spots for France, and Le Roux in particular has been a workhorse for France. Making tackles all over the field, Le Roux hasn’t been very impactful with ball in hand, but he has been a menace at the breakdown, and stopped opposition attacks dead. Loann Goujon of Clermont will be making his first start for France, and the idea of some fresh meat will have Parisse salivating.

Camille Lopez and Sebastien Tillous Borde retain their spots for France, while Edoardo Gori and Kelly Haimona start for Italy. Haimona looked good in space (apart from Mark Bennett’s early intercept) but his kicking could become a major issue for Italy in the very near future. Lopez’s decision making needs work, but he has shown flashes of how dangerous he can be. His incessant chip kicks however, must stop if France is to win comfortably in Rome.

Maxime Mermoz joins Gael Fickou in the new French center pairing. Fickou is a very dangerous player and few will forget his game winning try against England in 2013, but the Italians have a pretty potent pair of centers as well. Andrea Masi looked very dangerous at 12 against England, and Luca Morisi has been in great form for Italy so far this season. Morisi adds a bit of physicality to the Italian backline, which is missing the magical Michele Campagnaro.

France have made two changes in their back three, bringing in two project players. Nao Seru Nakaitaci and Scott Spedding both start, while Yoann Huget retains his spot on the wing. Huget will be expected to perform this week as he has yet to really break open a game in the same way he did a year ago against England. Leonardo Sarto and Luke McClean are two excellent operators in the back three, and the expectation will be that they will threaten the French line as often as possible. Sarto put in a really good shift for Italy against England, but was unavailable last week against Scotland.

France have been forced to face a lot of questions this year, and many of them remain unanswered. Their discipline is still poor (as was exemplified by Pascal Pape’s cheap shot at

Jamie Heaslip), their attack has been slow and wearisome, and they’ve yet to put in a complete performance. Italy are riding high after an excellent win over Scotland, and they will smell blood in the water as this French team limps into Rome. If France lose, some major changes will be needed, not only on the field, but off as well, so the expectation is that France will deliver a resounding victory.

Prediction: France 27- Italy 17

 

 

 

 

 

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