RBS 6 Nations Round 3: Preview

img_1928

Well, we did it, we survived our 6 Nationsless weekend, and the rugby gods have bestowed us with gifts for our patience.

We are being treated to what is set to be an incredible weekend of rugby. Scotland vs Italy, which last year came down to a Duncan Weir drop goal, Wales vs France, as these two try to fight their way back into contention, and Ireland vs England, the top two teams, set to go to battle in what should be a thrilling weekend.

Scotland vs Italy:

Screen Shot 2015-02-19 at 09.25.30

Two teams that are scrambling to avoid winning the wooden spoon. Both are 0-2, and both have had some promising moments. Italy showed some promise against England, with Luca Morisi’s double, and Sergio Parisse’s impressive try early. Up front, Italy have lost the formidable experience of Martin Castrogiovanni (I wonder if Vern Cotter sent him a Scottish terrier), but Leonardo Ghiraldini and Matias Aguero offer some reliable backup.

Scotland will be delighted to have Euan Murray again, as he will shore up the scrum, and if he plays as he did against France, he will help out in the loose as well. Jonny Gray will continue his meteoric rise to prominence this week, currently he is one of the 6 Nations leading tacklers, and his work in the lineout and with ball in hand has been noteworthy. Italy have had to make another change in the backrow, with Simone Favaro joining the party. Scotland’s back row is unchanged, and it should be, because Harley, Cowan and Beattie have been in great form.

If Sergio Parisse plays as he did last week, Italy will have a real chance in this fixture, as he was heroic. Scotland are now down to their third choice at flyhalf, Peter Horne, but Horne has looked really dangerous for Glasgow, and if Greig Laidlaw can control the game, Horne may be able to exploit this Italian backline. Kelly Haimona retains his 10 shirt, despite his horrible kicking against England, Honestly, George Kruis looked more composed kicking than Haimona. But if he can keep the Italian attack on the front foot, Italy will be in the game to the end. Another week, another change in the Italian centers, as uncapped Enricco Bacchin joins Luca Morisi in the centers.

Scotlands pair of Alex Dunbar and Mark Bennett continue to impress, and they will try and exploit this unsettled Italian backline. Italy’s backline is even weaker due to the loss of Leonardo Sarto and Andrea Masi, and Scotland’s explosive trio of Lamont, Seymour, and Hogg could really tear up this Italian defence. These two teams look similar, but they are heading in two different directions. Scotland’s stock is skyrocketing upwards, but Italy’s is plummeting like the depreciation on an Italian car.
Prediction: Scotland 31- Italy 17

Wales vs France:

Mike-Phillips

Two teams with plenty of potential, but neither has been able to live up to it. France have been one dimensional and rather lethargic, while Wales have yet to produce their best 80 minutes.

One of the highlights for France has been the pack, and they have the same front row that started against Ireland, with Eddy Ben Arous and Guilhem Guirado looking to get back to their dynamic best. Wales will be thankful to have Samson Lee back at tight head, while Richard Hibbard drops to the bench. Both teams have made changes in the second row, as Luke Charteris steps in for Jake Ball, and Romain Taofifenua is brought in for Pascal Pape. Pape will be a major loss for France as he is one of the teams leaders, and Taofifenua has yet to go a full 80 minutes for France.

Neither team has changed their back row, because the loose forwards have been a highlight for both teams. Many critics will be delighted to see that Morgan Parra has displaced Rory Kockott at 9, but France have stuck with Camille Lopez at 10. Lopez needs to improve his kicks from hand, as he seems to enjoy kicking the ball away every time France have some promising possession.

Rhys Webb and Dan Biggar have retained their jobs, and thats not really surprising seeing the way that the two of them have played. Webb is scoring tries at will and Biggar is marshalling the Welsh backline really well. Now if Alun Wyn Jones could just get rid of that thing Webb calls a haircut, the Welsh forwards might just support him. Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies are clicking again like they did in 2013 , and their massive size might do a number on the French back unit. Mathieu Bastareaud has been dropped to the bench, probably due to his versatility, he could easily provide injury cover in the front row.

The pairing of Fofana and Lamerat may be able to use their creativity to get around the massive Welsh centers. Liam Williams has kept his starting spot, as Alex Cuthbert has been dropped, and George North is back to make his 50th cap at 22 years of age. 50 caps. At 22 years old. Kinda makes you wonder what you’ve done with your life. The French have dropped Scott Spedding and Teddy Thomas, and brought in Sofiane Gutiounne and Brice Dulin. Leigh Halfpenny’s boot will be crucial in this encounter, and his ability to keep the scoreboard ticking over will see Wales take this one.

Prediction: Wales 24- France 19

Ireland vs England:

Tommy Bowe breaking through a tackle vs France

Tommy Bowe breaking through a tackle vs France

The tough one. I’ve kinda been putting this one off while trying to figure out who will take this one. Jack McGrath keeps the 1 shirt, while Cian Healy will provide some spark off the bench. Joe Marler gave Mike Ross nightmares last time the two met, and the battle between these two will be crucial.

Dylan Hartley has been excellent, but is known for lapses in discipline in big games, although you have to feel for the guy, I mean who knew that repeatedly swearing at the ref, or eye gouging got you a red card? The lineout was one of England’s weaknesses against Italy and if that is not fixed, Devin Toner and Paul O’Connell will terrorize England. George Kruis has been really impressive despite his youth, and even had an excellent kick last week! England’s back row has been the key to their success this year, and James Haskell, Chris Robshaw, and Billy Vunipola will be vital in this encounter.

The loss of Jamie Heaslip means that Jordi Murphy steps in at 8, and although Murphy may not be as big as Vunipola, he is really good with ball in hand, and may provide Ireland with the go forward ball that they will need. Sean O’Brien will be looking to return to his pre-injury form, while Peter O’Mahony has improved massively. He will be vital to stopping England’s attack with his excellent work at the breakdown and tackling prowess. Conor Murray and Ben Youngs are two in form scrum halves and their box kicks need to be accurate as both teams possess a very dangerous back three.

Jonny Sexton and George Ford are two of the best fly halves in the world. Yes, Ford still has a lot to prove, but an English win would certainly erase some of the doubts. Sexton may not have been in his best form with ball in hand against France (should have gone wide instead of a short pass to Payne) but his kicking was excellent, and he held firm against the massive ball carriers France sent after him time and time again. If he improves on his game from last week, England will really struggle to get out of Dublin with a win. Jonathan Joseph and Luther Burrell will challenge Ireland’s pair of Henshaw and Payne, who have struggled to click offensively but have been stoic in defence. Joseph in particular has caused every team he has faced massive problems, and could do it this week as well.

Mike Brown’s injury is a big loss but England have some good backup. Alex Goode steps in to the 15 shirt, and his consistency under the highball along with Jack Nowell and Anthony Watson will need to survive the Irish kicking barrage. Rumor has it that Ireland have procured a squadron of B-2’s to assist them in their aerial assault on the English line, but its not as though they would need them. With Sexton and Murray’s accurate kicking, Ireland have the perfect back three for the job. Tommy Bowe, Simon Zebo, and Rob Kearney are all massive, and they all compete for high balls as hard as they look for tries. If only all whingers, I mean wingers behaved in this way.

This game will be great to watch, both teams have looked really good and and all signs point to an incredibly tight finish in Dublin., but I just feel that England’s massive scrum and more in form backs will give them the slightest edge.
Prediction: England 26- Ireland 23

Key Players:

Peter Horne:

peter_horne_scotland

The Scottish back will start at flyhalf against Italy, despite not having played all that much there for Glasgow Warriors. Undeniably talented, he will need to control the game, and use the remarkable pace that Scotland has on the outside. Last season, the game came down to a Duncan Weir drop goal, and the question will be, can Horne operate under that kind of pressure? Judging by the video below, the answer is yes.

Luca Morisi:

Benetton Rugby vs Connacht - secondo tempo

Demonstrated his potential with his thrilling double against England. Morisi will now be a key part of Italy’s attack, and with young Enrico Bacchin inside him, Morisi will need another great performance. Italy are underdogs again, but Morisi will need to have the self belief in himself and his teammates, and if he does, and the Italians play as hard as they can, they could very well take home a win.

Jamie Roberts:

1001335-19242951-1600-900

Roberts is very much the pivot of the Welsh attack, if he goes forward, they will go forward. Warren Gatland will need Roberts to break through the French defense, and if he does he will create huge gaps for the likes of Leigh Halfpenny and Liam Williams. Roberts is in great form defensively at the moment, but Wales will be needing him to not only neutralize Wesley Fofana as a threat, but also to exploit him in defense.

Camille Lopez:

lopez

Lopez has looked pretty good kicking for posts, and he has been solid in defence, but part of France’s problem in that they have been very 1 dimensional. The problem is, they have become so infatuated with overpowering their opponent that they become remarkably predictable. Lopez very rarely does anything flashy with ball, and hasn’t really put any of his teammates in position to do anything flashy either. If Lopez doesn’t start setting France up for tries, I can’t see France becoming a dominant force on the international arena.

Joe Marler:

Joe+Marler+England+Training+Session+br1NECxxtcsl

Marler definitely had Mike Ross’s number last time these two met, and even though the circumstances were different, if Ross cannot avoid a similar outcome, Ireland will really struggle against the English pack. Marler is rapidly growing as one of the world’s best loose heads, and he plays a huge part in the dominance that England has achieved so far in the competition.

Jordi Murphy:

six-nations-jordi-murphy_3268832

Murphy has a lot of weight on his shoulders as he steps in for the injured Jamie Heaslip. Heaslip is not only a fantastic ball carrier, but he is also a fantastic leader for Ireland. Murphy may not be able to boast the size of the English back rowers, but he will need to use his pace and skill to try to find gaps in the English defence. He will also need to stop the likes of Billy Vunipola and James Haskell, no easy task. If Murphy struggles against this English back row, Ireland will be in for a tough day. If Murphy can do what he does best and cross the gainline, then Ireland have every chance of taking home a win.

One Comment

Leave a Reply to sksdkjs Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: