Melbourne Rebels’ Mike Harris’ looping underarm pass facilitated a simple run in try for Sefanaia Naivalu in last weekend’s clash between Waratah’s and a the Rebels; but the question remains, was the pass borne from an audacious moment of quick witted Rugby thinking or was Lady Lucky a factor?

Clip Credit: Le-Rugbynistere

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There’s only been one round played, it’s a bit early to be calling it. Especially when many of the New Zealand and South African teams are resting stars.

Chiefs V Brumbies

The Chiefs are bringing back their stars, and the Brumbies have lost David Pocock, yet again, to injury. Fortunately it’s his ankle, not his knee on this occasion, and he will be back in 4-6 weeks.

Returning for the Chiefs are All Blacks forwards Brodie Retallick and Liam Messam, while flyhalf Aaron Cruden will rekindle his partnership with superstar Sonny Bill Williams. Remarkably, these two teams were the only ones who finished in the top five last year to kick off 2015 with a win.

Prediction

Sure, the Brumbies destroyed the Reds last week, but that was on the back of the work of Pocock, who almost single-handedly starved the Reds of possession. This week with Cruden back to partner with SBW, as well as the match being played at New Plymouth, it makes it impossible to go past the Chiefs. Chiefs by 6.

CHIEFS: James Lowe, Bryce Heem, Charlie Ngatai, Sonny Bill Williams, Hosea Gear, Aaron Cruden, Brad Weber; Maama Vaipulu, Sam Cane, Liam Messam (capt), Michael Fitzgerald, Matt Symons, Siate Tokolahi, Hika Elliot, Jamie Mackintosh.

Reserves: Quentin MacDonald, Pauliasi Manu, Ben Tameifuna, Brodie Retallick, Tevita Koloamatangi, Augustine Pulu, Damian McKenzie, Seta Tamanivalu.

BRUMBIES:  Robbie Coleman, Henry Speight, Tevita Kuridrani, Christian Lealiifano,  Joseph Tomane, Matt Toomua, Nic White, Ita Vaea, Jarrad Butler, Scott Fardy, Rory Arnold, Sam Carter, Ben Alexander, Josh Mann-Rea, Scott Sio.

Reserves: Stephen Moore, Jean-Pierre Smith, Ruan Smith, Jordan Smiler, Sean Doyle, Michael Dowsett, James Dargaville, Lausii Taliauli.

Rebels V Waratahs

Some interesting stats in the lead-up to this match. The Waratahs have never started a season with two losses, and the Rebels have never started with two wins. The key to this match is the back-row, with the Rebels loose three putting in a high quality performance against the Crusaders and the Waratahs’ counterparts well below par against the Force, only managing one turn over in the 80 minutes.

The ‘Tahs won’t be helped by the loss of Wallaby Cliff Palu with a knee injury. Melbourne are missing suspended halfback Nic Stirzaker but have a very capable substitute in Luke Burgess. The Tahs match up well against the Rebels and surely couldn’t play as badly as they did against the Force.

Prediction

The Rebels will be coming into this match full of confidence after their amazing performance against the Crusaders, and the Waratahs will have a point to prove after failing against the Force.

The odds at most betting agencies have the ‘Tahs, playing at home a strong favourite, but I think it’ll be a lot closer than that suggests. Waratahs by 3.

REBELS: Mike Harris, Dom Shipperley, Tamati Ellison, Mitch Inman, Tom English, Jack Debreczeni, Luke Burgess (capt), Scott Higginbotham, Colby Fainga’a, Sean McMahon, Lopeti Timani, Luke Jones, Laurie Weeks, Pat Leafa, Toby Smith.

Reserves: Ben Whittaker, Cruze Ah-Nau, Paul Alo-Emile, Sam Jeffries, Scott Fuglistaller, Ben Meehan, Bryce Hegarty, Sefanaia Naivalu

WARATAHS: Israel Folau, Taqele Naiyaravaro, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Kurtley Beale, Rob Horne, Bernard Foley, Nick Phipps, Stephen Hoiles, Michael Hooper, Jaques Potgieter, Will Skelton, David Dennis (capt), Sekope Kepu, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson.

Reserves: Tolu Latu, Jeremy Tilse, Paddy Ryan, Sam Lousi, Mitchell Chapman, Brendan McKibbin, Matt Carraro, Pat McCutcheon, Peter Betham.

Bulls v Hurricanes

The Bulls fell way short of the lofty expectations many were expecting from them in their loss to the Stormers last week. The Hurricanes on the otherhand showed that the hapless Lions look destined for another cellar dweller season by beating them in Johannesburg.

Pierre Spies comes into the Bulls lineup as captain after replacing injured No.8 Arno Botha. Meanwhile, All Blacks centre Ma’a Nonu will make his first return appearance for the Hurricanes at the expense of Rey Lee-Lo. Flanker Callum Gibbins will also make his first start for the ‘Canes ahead of much-touted youngster Ardie Savea.

Prediction

The ‘Canes can go from hot to cold at a moments notice, and playing against a higher quality team this week in the shape of the Bulls, we can expect a much closer contest.

I think the Bulls will bounce back from last weeks results to put in a much beef-ier performance. Bulls by 4.

BULLS: Jesse Kriel, Bjorn Basson, JJ Engelbrecht, Jan Serfontein, Francois Hougaard, Handre Pollard, Piet van Zyl, Pierre Spies (capt), Lappies Labuschagne, Deon Stegmann, Victor Matfield, Jacques du Plessis, Trevor Nyakane, Adriaan Strauss, Morne Mellett.

Reserves: Callie Visagie, Dean Greyling, Dayan van der Westhuizen, Grant Hattingh, Hanro Liebenberg, Rudy Paige, Jacques-Louis Potgieter, Jurgen Visser.

HURRICANES: Jason Woodward, Cory Jane, Conrad Smith (capt), Ma’a Nonu, Julian Savea, Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara, Blade Thomson, Callum Gibbins, Brad Shields, James Broadhurst, Mark Abbott, Ben Franks, Dane Coles, Reggie Goodes.

Reserves: Brayden Mitchell, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Chris Eves, Ardie Savea, Victor Vito, Chris Smylie, James Marshall, Matt Proctor

Happy Tipping.

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Apparently, life at Toulon isn’t all rainbows, sunshine and million € contracts. Not only is Mourad Boudjellal threatening to tear up Leigh Halfpenny’s contract because the Welsh goal-kicking replacement for Johnny Wilkinson dared to sustain an injury.

Now, Boudjellal has threatened legal action over stars still on international duty in The Rugby Championship if they don’t return to Toulon to take part in this weekend’s Top14 competition.

Boudjellal is threatening Argentine star Juan Martin Fernández Lobbe and Springboks Bryan Habana and Bakkies Botha if they don’t return to play Brive this weekend.

According to ESPN, Boudjellal has threatened to not pay his stars if they refuse to return and has also issued an ultimatum, even threatening court action in France.

All three stars are with their respective squads preparing for the matches next weekend with Argentina set to host the All Blacks and the Springboks ready to host the Wallabies. But Boudjellal believes he has rights to his players this weekend and is prepared to take them to court.

“There is something that is quite simple – they defend the colours of their country and are paid rather comfortably by Toulon,” Boudjellal told French media. “The IRB decided the rules. That’s fine but I’m not here to fund South African and Argentine rugby and I will not.

“These players will return as we need them. If they do not and we receive no fee, they will not be paid by us because they will not be present in Toulon. We’ll see if the rules of the IRB prevail or if it is the rules of the Labour Code for French private enterprise. In any case, it is an aberration.

“We have reached a stage where we have to ask the opinion of the French law. Therefore, we will ask the French judges whether a foreign federation has the right to take my employees and force me to pay them. It’s just unthinkable we have players who are paid very well by us but cannot play them. Moreover, I have to pay the players replacing them. This is a double sanction.”

This power-mad behaviour on threatening legal action over Halfpenny, and the three southern hemisphere stars is a carry-on from Boudjellal – not so subtle threat to the Queensland Reds over star recruit James O’Connor.

The Reds believe they have signed O’Connor on a two-year contract, but the Toulon boss was having non of that, saying that his star utility back would return to France once the Rugby World Cup was complete.

“We always said James O’Connor had signed for three years at Toulon with a possible six months absence during the season to be able to play in the World Cup … so we respect what has been signed … He is committed for two years after the Cup,” Boudjellal told Radio Monte Carlo.

And what should be a worry for the Reds, is that Boudjellal doesn’t like to be told “no”.

However, there is one thing the billionaire is planning that the rugby world is looking forward to. A potential match-up between the Heineken Cup champions and the Super Rugby champions.

While this match has been planned in the past, and has fallen through for various reasons, out of all previous attempts, this is more likely than ever before to go ahead because of the precarious financial situation the ARU has found themselves in, in recent years. 

That would be a mouth-watering match-up that will be talked about for years to come, however, the banter is bound to surround who’s match-fit and who’s in the middle of pre-season.

Editorial note
Boudjellal may have made his fortune in comic books, but it doesn’t mean he needs to behave like a comic book character.

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As per his interview with the Irish Times, Leinster coach Matt O’Connor is confident that one of the Dublin based teams new signings, Kane Douglas, will be available for the opening round of the Champions Cup.

The 25 year old Super Rugby winning lock is currently committed to NSW Country, who play in Australia’s second tier, The National Rugby Championship, but O’Connor is confident that the fourteen time capped Australian  lock will be available for selection soon rather than later.

“We’ve had a few positive conversations in relation to that and it will certainly be well in advance of that date,” Said the former Leicester Tigers’ backs coach to the Irish Times

“We’re just trying to work out the logistics of when that will actually be. There is a release process.

“We need to get him signed off by them. Nothing can happen until that’s achieved.

“All things being equal, that’s looking quite positive. It will be sooner rather than later”.

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The Tahs have recorded the most trys, most points, conceded the least, boast the competition’s top try scorer, Israel Folau and the season’s top points scorer, Bernard Foley. They are on a nine game winning streak at home and are undefeated there this season. The Sydney based team has won their last seven games by an average of 24 points and are hosting their first final.

Yet, the stat that has popped up more than any other this week is the Waratahs horror run against the Crusaders. The boys from Christchurch have defeated the Tahs in the last 11 games they have played; including the 2005 and 2008 finals played in Christchurch.

Michael Chieka says history counts for nothing, but try saying that to the Crusaders big three trio, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter and Kieran Read who have made a habit of winning the big games when it matters most.

The Tahs have 14 internationals in their line-up today, with Alofa Alofa as the only in the backline never to have represented his country, so we’ll give a slight edge to the Waratahs there.

The ‘Saders have 11 test starters starting and will look to target the Waratahs in the set peice, an area of great strength for the Kiwi team this year. The Tahs gave away two penalties in the scrum against the Brumbies and their lineout has completely gone “head over biscuit” since Dave Dennis suffered a season ending knee injury.

The Crusaders have one of the lowest tackle success rates of the competition this year (85%) and missed a whopping 21 tackles in their semi-final victory against the Sharks, something they cannot allow against a team which boasts Folau, Beale, AAC and Foley.

The Crusaders have given away the second lowest amount of penalties throughout the season but lost discipline against the Sharks, giving away 13. Similar ill-discipline could prove costly against the Tahs.

Key Players

Waratahs: Every player in the Waratahs line-up has had a huge impact at one time or another throughout the year, and their relatively unchanged team list throughout the season is testament to that.

Kurtley Beale, Israel Folay and Bernard Foley have been their bread and butter in the winning formula this year.

Folau has topped the charts for tries (12), offloads (47) and clean breaks (26) this season, and the Waratahs will look for him to play a key role having been shut out of the game by the Brumbies; look for him to seek involvement in fresh areas of the game – a Plan B – if the Crusaders succeed in shutting down the supply line.

Beale has played some of his best rugby this season, creating a strong combination with Foley and Folau, and he has scored/assisted in 18 tries (eight of which he scored), made 12 line breaks and 225 carries; his link play with Foley, the top points scorer this season, is essential for the Tahs.

Michael Hooper also will be essential in the Waratahs’ game. Taking over the captaincy from Dennis, he leads the side from the front with a cool head and stays calm under pressure. Hooper is a top tackler – making 10 last week – as well as a strong ball runner; he beat two defenders and made 15 metres against the Brumbies.

Crusaders: Despite the side facing a few hiccups throughout the season, the Crusaders returned to their best in time for the finals with several players key on the rise.

Nemani Nadolo has been a revelation for the Crusaders, scoring 11 tries, making 61 tackle busts and 25 clean breaks in his 13 appearances this year; he made a huge 111 metres last week against the Sharks. He is a potent figure in the Crusaders backline, and his ability to find the try line could be the making or breaking of the Crusaders.

Working closely alongside Nadolo, Colin Slade will also play a huge part in the Crusaders game. Slade has led his backline to the finals and, alongside Dan Carter last week, provided a fly-half masterclass; his strong kicking game will be an instrumental part in the Crusaders’ plans.

Despite missing a fair chunk of the season through injury, Kieran Read is sure to play a huge part in the Crusaders game. A dominating figure up front, a strong ball runner and link player, the 2013 IRB Player of the Year is sure to take charge early. He ran 62 metres last week alone, and he will be a huge threat in broken play.

Prediction

It all revolves around peaking at the right time, and the Crusaders current form is ominous. They strangely spluttered at times this year, but have come into the finals in fine form.

Waratahs will certainly irritate and threaten – especially if their attack gets enough quality possession to unleash Israel Folau, Alofa Alofa and Kurtley Beale on a regular basis. But the Crusaders will do all they can to fragment the Waratahs’ ball – focusing on what are clearly their weak points of a faltering lineout and a scrum that is above average but can occasionally be exposed.

Many in the press have beat-up and rubbished the Waratahs set piece, and because of that I have little doubt the Tahs forwards will be fired up for a big performance, and they have shown they can get it right…at times. If the Tahs scrum and lineout manages to hang tough, the Crusaders may find themselves struggling.

Both teams love to play entertaining rugby, and I’m tipping plenty of points being scored. But the Waratahs have the luxury of being able to have test stars on the bench. Because of this depth, and a record Super Rugby crowd getting right behind the Tahs, that should be enough to scrape across the line. Tahs by 4.

Teams

Waratahs
Israel Folau, Alofa Alofa, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Kurtley Beale, Rob Horne, Bernard Foley, Nick Phipps, Wycliff Palu, Michael Hooper (capt), Stephen Hoiles, Jacques Potgieter, Kane Douglas, Sekope Kepu, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson. Reserves: Tola Latu, Paddy Ryan, Jeremy Tilse, Will Skelton, Mitch Chapman, Pat McCutcheon, Brendan McKibbon, Matt Carraro, Taqele Naiyaravoro, Peter Betham (two to be omitted).

Crusaders
Israel Dagg, Kieron Fonotia, Ryan Crotty, Dan Carter, Nemani Nadolo, Colin Slade, Andy Ellis, Kieran Read (captain), Matt Todd, Richie McCaw, Dominic Bird, Sam Whitelock, Owen Franks, Corey Flynn, Wyatt Crockett. Reserves: Ben Funnell, Nepo Laulala, Jimmy Tupou, Jordan Taufua, Willi Heinz, Tom Taylor, Johnny McNicholl.

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Crusaders Vs Sharks

A heavyweight tussle between the Crusaders and Sharks kicks of four hours of griping rugby today. While the Crusaders have flexed their muscles since the June international break, the Sharks have struggled to find their early season form.

While the Sharks struggled to get past the Highlanders at home, they demonstrated set piece strength. However, the Crusaders are a step up in class and will need tighter back line defence is they are to stand any chance.

While the Sharks completely dominated the Highlanders scrum, it’ll be a different story against the Crusaders who boast half the All Blacks starting pack, and on percentages owns the most successful scrum in the competition this year.

The Sharks are the only team to have beaten the ‘Saders at home this year, but that match was arguably the Crusaders worst performance all year. No doubt the home team will be looking for revenge.

All Blacks captain McCaw makes a timely return to action after missing the Crusaders’ past three games with a rib injury he picked up while on Test duty. The superstar flanker’s availability will boost an already in-form pack boasting a stack of All Blacks talent, including skipper and No. 8 Kieran Read who looks to be back to the form that saw him crowned IRB world player of the year in 2013.

But McCaw will have his hands full against Coetzee, who has been in great touch himself and was a powerhouse against the Highlanders last week. The burly back-rower, who has been the leading ball-carrier for the Sharks this season, made nine bruising runs for 65m and crossed for an important try.

Sharks winger Mvovo looks set to be handed one of world rugby’s most unenviable tasks — shutting down Fijian flyer Nadolo. The Australian-born winger has been a revelation in his first season of Super Rugby, crossing for 10 tries to trail only Waratahs star Israel Folau (12). At 194cm and 125kg Nadolo is particularly hard to stop if he’s given time to hit top gear, and Crusaders playmakers Colin Slade and Dan Carter will be looking to do as often as possible.

Mvovo is no slouch in attack himself and leads the Sharks this season for run metres (920), tackle busts (40) and linebreaks (13). But he lacks Nadolo’s try-scoring prowess, crossing for only two five-pointers in 17 games.

The Crusaders and Sharks have met in two Super Rugby playoffs matches, with the New Zealanders winning both clashes, each time on home soil. They won their 2011 qualifying final 36-8 on their way to reaching the decider, and triumphed 36-32 in a 1998 semi-final before taking out the title.

The Sharks are trying to shake off a tag as one of Super Rugby’s biggest bridesmaid. They have made the playoffs on nine separate occasions but have failed to win a title in their four grand final appearances.

If any team is capable of causing an upset against the Crusaders at home, it’s the Sharks, however, there’s too much to play for. Because of this, I’m tipping the Crusaders to win by 6.

Waratahs Vs Brumbies

What a cracking semi-final this looms to be. Last time the bitter rivals met in Sydney for a top-four play-off, the Brumbies blew the Tahs out of the water. Little chance this time as a tight, yet entertaining, spectacle is promised.

Although NSW romped to the minor premiership and are title favourites, the Brumbies know what it’s like to win – and lose – big play-off games. They’ve produced their best performances of the season in wins over the Force and Chiefs and are playing with great pace and skill.

The Waratahs would have enjoyed a week’s rest and a chance to fix the worrying lineout problems the Reds exposed. But talk by some players they’re “unstoppable” and yet to hit their peak wouldn’t have been missed by their opponents. Expect a few news clippings pinned up on the Brumbies’ dressing room wall. It’s been a long time since the Tahs were in a tight one so the mental battle could be telling.

Last week against the Chiefs, the Brumbies surprisingly moved away from their old “Jakeball” game plan and played running rugby, to much success. The Tahs will have to be prepared for a team that could come out with two different tactics, and if the Brumbies resort to their long kicking game, how Folau handle’s it at the back will go a long way to determining a winner.

Both teams hate each other and are playing in a Super Rugby semi final in front of what should be close to a full house at Allianz Stadium. Need any more convincing to turn on the TV? How about 22 Wallabies facing off against each other?

These two sides split their regular season clashes. Stephen Larkham’s men got up 28-23 in Canberra in Round 5 but the Waratahs atoned with a 39-8 smashing of the injury-ravaged Brumbies in Sydney four weeks ago. The Brumbies are closer to full-strength this time around and have won four of their last six meetings with the Tahs, but their record in Sydney is atrocious. They have won just twice in 13 trips to the Harbour City, although one of those wins was a 51-10 triumph in the 2002 semi final.

With all that said, there won’t be much in it this weekend. The Tahs deserve to enter as favourites based on recent form and the Brumbies’ poor record in Sydney, but the men from Canberra know they’ve beaten the Tahs before this season and are perfectly capable of doing it again. But, I don’t think they will, however, it’ll be close. Waratahs by 7.

All I know is, both these games should be belters! If you choose not to watch either of them for what ever reason, there’s something wrong with you, and you should feel bad!

What’s your tips?

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The Highlanders and Crusaders will be battling over the top of the New Zealand conference and the Sharks hoping to jag second place, there’s still plenty to play for.

Crusaders Vs. Highlanders

Depending on results between the Stormers v Sharks, a win should be enough to secure second place and a home semi-final for the Crusaders. The Highlanders need a bonus point win to have any hope at all of taking second overall and top place in the Kiwi conference.

The winner of this game should have next week off before hosting a sudden death play-off at home. Both teams are without key players, with All Blacks fullback Ben Smith still laid low by an infected leg which had him on a drip in a Sydney hospital for three days after Sunday’s loss to the Waratahs. The Crusaders will also be without their skipper, with Richie McCaw given another week to recover from a rib injury suffered in last month’s Test series against England.

The Crusaders are one of the form teams at the moment and will be difficult to beat at home, where as the Highlander’s away form has been poor, recent heavy defeats at the hands of the Reds in Brisbane and the Tahs in Sydney does not fill us with confidence when it comes to picking a winner in today’s match.

Because of this we’re tipping the Crusaders to win by 14.

Reds Vs. Waratahs

The Tahs have already locked up the minor premiership, and the Reds have no hope of making the finals. Either way, no team is taking is as a dead rubber. As much as the Brumbies fans try to argue it, this is still the biggest rivalry in Australian rugby with 131 years of history behind the fixture.

As a sign of how seriously both sides take this match, even with top place on the table sewn up, the Waratahs said they will not rest any players for the clash. However, injury got in the way of those plans with Israel Folau out with a corked thigh.

The Reds will be keen to keep their record against the Tahs (one loss in the last four years) where as the Sydney siders will want to keep their momentum up leading into their home semi in a fortnight with their seventh straight win.

The Tahs will be keen to dispel the tag that they’re nothing more than Israel Folau with 14 others on the field, having only won, one of three games without him this year and lost just two out of 11 with him.

Despite a loss last week to the Force, the Reds have still found a rare patch of form for themselves at the back end of this season, and playing at home in their last match of the season will no doubt give them a boost. However, even without Folau, the Tahs still have an extremely strong backline, because of this we’re tipping the Tahs by 8.

Lions Vs. Cheetahs

One for only the die hard rugby fans. Second last plays third last, however the pressure of avoiding the wooden spoon is off with Rebels getting thrashed by the Bulls yesterday.

However, motivation won’t be in short supply, the new Super Rugby format with 18 teams doesn’t come into effect until 2016, so the team with the conference wooden-spoon in their pot will end up in a promotion/relegation match against the Kings later this year.

The Lions surged late to down the lowly Rebels last week, while the Cheetahs lifted after the return of their Springboks to stun the conference-topping Sharks. The Lions have won five of their seven home games this year – only losing to the conference-leading Crusaders and Sharks – and that fact alone should help them scramble over the line.

Because of this, we’re tipping the Lions to get there on the boot of Jantjies and Boshoff, Lions by 6.

 Stormers Vs. Sharks

After a blazing start to the season, the Sharks have gone of the boil losing their last two games to surrender the competition lead.

The Jake White coached team is guaranteed play-off action and can still re-take second place, but need to realistically win with a bonus point, while hoping the Crusaders fall short of the same feat at home to the Highlanders to nab a home semi-final and next week off.

They shouldn’t expect any South African favours, with the Stormers finding a purple patch of form at the back end of the season, running high on a four match winning streak, which includes beating the Sharks in Durban just before the June international break.

With the Sharks coming off the boil, and the Stormers in red hot form, we think this game will be extremely close. I’m tipping the Stormers at home by 3.

What’s your predictions?

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Table as it stands after round 18

Let’s take a look.

Firstly, we should take into consideration how SANZAR separates teams who are locked on the same total points at the end of the season:

1.  Most wins
2. Highest aggregate points difference
3. Most tries
4. Highest aggregate difference between tries scored and tries conceded
5. Toss of the coin

Crusaders possible finishing position: 2nd – 4th

For the Crusaders to keep second place on the table they must win, preferably with a bonus point. If the Sharks get a win, they’ll be on the same points. But they’re only eight behind in terms of for and against.

The big advantage for the Crusaders, if they end up on the same total at the end of the week as the Sharks, the Crusaders are a long way ahead of the Sharks on tries scored. But the only way to guarantee a second place finish, is to get a big win over the Highlanders.

However, if they do lose, they are still guaranteed a home qualifying final.

Sharks possible finishing positions: 2nd – 3rd

The Sharks will realistically need to win convincingly, and with a bonus point against the Stormers to claim second. They are 11 tries behind the Crusaders over the course of the season but are only eight behind on points difference. Because of this, we may see the Sharks break out of the penalty goal mentality this weekend.

The good news for the Sharks is they are that far ahead on the South African conference they can’t possible finish any lower than where they currently are.

Highlanders possible finishing positions: 2nd – 7th

For the Highlanders to finish second, they need to win with a bonus point, and hope neither the Sharks or the Crusaders gain anything out of their last round matches.

While the Highlanders have scored more tries than either the Crusaders or the Sharks, they are too far behind on wins and points for and against to get ahead of either of them, if they end up locked on equal points.

A bonus point of any kind will be enough for the Highlanders to finish in the top six. But if they fail to gain a bonus point in a loss to the Crusaders, and a scenario where the following two things all play out; The loser of the Force v Brumbies match gaining two bonus points, and the Chiefs beat the Blues, they will find themselves out of the top six all together.

Hurricanes possible finishing positions: 6th – 9th

The Hurricanes are in a position that no team ever wants to be in. They have to rely on other results to keep them in the race.

For the Canes to remain in the top six, the need the Blues to beat the Chiefs by no more than 37, while hoping the Chiefs gain no more than one bonus point, max. As well as praying that the loser out of the Brumbies v Force don’t take any bonus points home.

I’m afraid to say, that when I shook the magic 8-ball, it came up “out look, not good” for Hurricanes fans.

Brumbies possible finishing positions: 4th – 9th

The Brumbies are in a good position to claim 4th spot at the end of next week. They’ll only need to get a win against the Force at home and hope the Crusaders beat the Highlanders (which they are strong favorites to do). With the Chiefs being two wins behind the Brumbies, that should be enough for them to claim 4th.

However, if they do lose, they NEED to get a bonus point. Any bonus point will put them ahead of the Hurricanes, but even that may not be enough to keep them in the top six. If they gain two bonus points in a loss to the Force and the Highlanders lose, then that will be enough for the Brumbies to stay in the finals race. If they lose with only one bonus point, then they need to pray the Blues beat the Chiefs.

In the event where the Brumbies draw against the Force, that will also be enough to get them through, and still possibly claim 4th if both the Highlanders and the Chiefs go down.

Force possible finishing positions: 4th – 9th

With the Force and the Brumbies both locked on 40 points and playing each other in the final round, the Force are in the same boat as the Canberrans in terms of possible outcomes.

The only difference is, if they draw with the Brumbies, without gaining a four-try bonus point, the Force couldn’t possibly take 4th.

Chiefs possible finishing positions: 4th – 9th

The Chiefs pretty much need to win to keep their title defense alive. Any win will be enough to get them into the top six, but a bonus point victory, while hoping the loser of the Brumbies v Force game don’t gain a bonus point, and at the same time, if the Highlanders lose to the Crusaders, we will see the Chiefs finish 4th and secure a home qualifying final.

If the Chiefs do go down against the Blues, they’ll need to take two bonus points out of the match, as well as praying the loser of the Brumbies v Force only gain one bonus point, max. In that scenario, the Chiefs will finish 6th. Same result if they draw with the Blues.

Lastly, I’m only mentioning this to cover all bases, this is the most improbable outcome of all the hypothetical situations I have, and will cover; If the Chiefs draw with a bonus point, and the Brumbies and Force draw without a bonus point, as well as the Highlanders losing, in that scenario, the Chiefs would finish 4th.

Blues possible finishing position: 6th – 9th

There is no more than one situation where the Blues can make the play-offs. They need to win BIG, and with a bonus point.

They’ll need to beat the Chiefs by at least 38 points, as well as praying the loser out of the Brumbies v Force don’t gain any bonus points out of their match.
If the Brumbies, Force or Chiefs gain a bonus point in a losing match, their season will be over.

RBP’s prediction

How do we think the table will finish up I hear you ask? Well, I’m glad you asked.

1. Waratahs
2. Crusaders
3. Sharks
4. Brumbies
5. Highlanders
6. Force
7. Hurricanes
8. Blues
9. Chiefs

What’s your final table predictions?

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Waratahs v Highlanders

Waratahs fans are really starting to believe that this could be the year that they finally get their hands on the trophy. Michael Cheika’s side are firing on all cylinders, and lead the comp not only in the overall standings, but also in carries, metres and passes.

With playmaker Bernard Foley in career-best form, NSW are on a five-match winning streak. The loss of captain Dave Dennis looks unlikely to derail their campaign but canny replacement Stephen Hoiles has a big job ensuring the lineout remains under control.

The Tahs haven’t lost to the Highlanders at home since 2007 but this South Island team continue to surprise, highlighted by last week’s win over the Chiefs to move equal on points with the Crusaders.

The Highlanders have been impressive at home this year, but their away form has been patchy. They’ll need to be at their best to topple the Tahs today. Sopoaga, the Smith’s and Fekitoa all need to fire to stand a chance.

This will be a battle of two talented backlines, and the battles of Beale v Fekitoa and B Smith v Folau will be ones to relish.

Momentum is with the Tahs at the moment, with the added incentive to finish on top and the possibility of the home grand final should prove enough for Tahs to hold on.

I’m tipping the Tahs in a high scoring, entertaining match, Tahs by 8.

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Hurricanes Vs Crusaders

The Hurricanes have proven themselves to be one of the most entertaining teams in this years competition in an up and down, roller coaster ride of a season. But it will all be for nothing if they can’t manage to get on top of the conference leading Crusaders today.

With the Chiefs and a last-round bye to follow, victory is essential. They’ve taken a hit with skipper Conrad Smith (broken thumb) sidelined until the play-offs.

The Crusaders are also without their inspirational captain as Richie McCaw is nursing broken ribs. The third-placed visitors are also without giant winger Nemani Nadolo but have big guns Dan Carter and Kieran Read set to make long-awaited returns from the bench.

While we think the Hurricanes will have the edge in the back line, the Crusaders should to too strong up front where it counts. The Crusaders’ defense has been impressive this season where as the Hurricanes’ has been near non existent at times.

We’re tipping the Crusaders in a close one.

Waratahs Vs Brumbies 

Victory today for the Waratahs will see the end of the Sharks reign, looking down on the rest of the competition from high aloft the table.

The Brumbies have won just twice in Sydney but must overcome an horrific injury toll to make it a third. Last year’s runners up must do without Stephen Moore, Sam Carter, Matt Toomua and Pat McCabe while the Waratahs have the luxury of using Wallabies starter Will Skelton off the bench.

For the Brumbies, no.12 fill-in Andrew Smith is in his run-on doubt. Moore’s loss is huge with Laurie Fisher forced to convert Irish prop Ruaidhri Murphy into a hooker.

In contrast, the star-studded Tahs look the real deal. Despite a three-week break, their momentum has continued with NSW’s big guns carrying their form through the Wallabies’ series whitewash over France.

Three straight wins over the Brumbies, Highlanders and Reds will ensure a home semi-final and, if they are good enough, grand final.

If this was a full strength Brumbies line-up playing today, this would be a hugely difficult game to predict. However, it’s not. With the lack of star players, we can expect the Brumbies to resort to their go to game plan – territory and capitalizing on mistakes.

The Brumbies defense will have to be at it’s best to stand a chance today. However, the Tahs playing at home should be too strong. We predict the Waratahs to win with a 10-15 point margin.

Force Vs Blues 

John Kirwan will be delighted to have all six of his All Blacks returning for a tough trip to Perth on Saturday night as the Aucklanders look to keep their faint play-offs alive against a side who won’t hand the ball over lightly.

The Blues have a tough run to the finish line, and will need to rediscover their mojo on the road if they are to have a chance.

The Force may be seventh on the standings but with three teams ahead having byes, their destiny is in their own hands; two wins out of three likely enough for a maiden finals berth. Victory over the Blues will be crucial to that equation.

Michael Foley welcomes back key trio Alby Mathewson, Hugh McMeniman and Marcel Brache for a tough clash with the inconsistent Aucklanders.  The Blues have put big flanker Steven Luatua back into their back-row and boast a talent-laden backline the Force will be hard pressed to contain. Young gun Ihaia West has kept his spot at no.10.

The Blues are yet to win away from home this season, and we can’t see that trend changing tonight. While at times the Force seem like they’re struggling, they always manage to find a way to hold on.

Because of that, we predict the Force to win in with a 10 point margin.

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