The Hurricanes, Stormers, Brumbies and Chiefs are all flying high, while last year’s finalists find themselves at the wrong end of the table.

Chiefs V Highlanders

Last week, the Chiefs really put a stamp on their title claim with a thumping win over the Crusaders.

In 2015, the Chiefs look like the real deal. The combination of SBW and Aaron Cruden is proving devastating. While the Highlanders claimed their second win of the season over the Reds, the Chiefs are a completely different prospect. The Highlanders will need to get more quality ball out to players such as Fekitoa and Naholo to really push this game.

Prediction

The Highlanders may feel like they’re on a bit of a roll, with a gutsy victory over the Reds last weekend, but the Chiefs outclass the Reds in every aspect. And being played in Hamilton, I feel the Chiefs will prove too strong for the men from Dunedin. Cheifs by 15.

CHIEFS: Tom Marshall; Hosea Gear, Charlie Ngatai, Sonny Bill Williams, James Lowe; Aaron Cruden, Augustine Pulu; Liam Messam (capt) / Maama Vaipulu, Sam Cane, Johan Bardoul; Michael Fitzgerald, Matt Symons; Ben Tameifuna, Hika Elliot, Pauliasi Manu. Reserves: Quentin MacDonald, Siate Tokolahi, Mitchell Graham, Michael Allardice, Michael Leitch / Maama Vaipulu, Brad Weber, Damian McKenzie, Andrew Horrell.

HIGHLANDERS: Ben Smith (co-capt); Waisake Naholo, Malakai Fekitoa, Shaun Treeby, Patrick Osborne; Lima Sopoaga, Aaron Smith; Nasi Manu (co-capt), Elliot Dixon, Gareth Evans; Joe Wheeler, Mark Reddish; Ma’afu Fia, Liam Coltman, Josh Hohneck. Reserves: Ash Dixon, Brendon Edmonds, Ross Geldenhuys, Tom Franklin, Dan Pryor, Fumiaki Tanaka, Marty Banks, Jason Emery.

Brumbies v Force

The hard-nosed and disciplined Brumbies should prove too strong for the one-dimensional Western Force.

The Canberra-based side have conceded one try in three games and have a lethal attack to complement their stoic defence. Steven Larkham’s side have also been awarded more penalties than any other team and conceded the fewest.

The return of Nick Cummins for the Force will provide some much-needed spark and hopefully a change in tactics from coach Michael Foley, who prefers to play a tight, forwards-based style.

Prediction

The Brumbies look set to show why they are top of the Australian conference and five-points clear of the fourth-placed Force. And with the game being played in Canberra, I can’t see the Force getting on top. Brumbies by 17.

BRUMBIES: Robbie Coleman, Henry Speight, Tevita Kuridrani, Christian Leali’ifano, Joe Tomane, Matt Toomua, Nic White, Ita Vaea, Jarrad Butler, Scott Fardy, Sam Carter, Rory Arnold, Ben Alexander, Stephen Moore, Scott Sio. Reserves: Josh Mann-Rea, JP Smith, Ruan Smith, Jordan Smiler, Blake Enever, Michael Dowsett, James Dargaville, Jesse Mogg.

FORCE: Luke Morahan, Marcel Brache, Kyle Godwin, Solomoni Jnr Rasolea, Nick Cummins, Zack Holmes, Alby Mathewson, Ben McCalman, Chris Alcock, Brynard Stander, Steve Mafi, Sam Wykes (c), Tetera Faulkner, Nathan Charles, Pekahou Cowan. Reserves: Heath Tessmann, Chris Heiberg, Oliver Hoskins, Wilhelm Steenkamp, Kane Koteka, Ian Prior, Sias Ebersohn, Luke Burton

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There’s only been one round played, it’s a bit early to be calling it. Especially when many of the New Zealand and South African teams are resting stars.

Chiefs V Brumbies

The Chiefs are bringing back their stars, and the Brumbies have lost David Pocock, yet again, to injury. Fortunately it’s his ankle, not his knee on this occasion, and he will be back in 4-6 weeks.

Returning for the Chiefs are All Blacks forwards Brodie Retallick and Liam Messam, while flyhalf Aaron Cruden will rekindle his partnership with superstar Sonny Bill Williams. Remarkably, these two teams were the only ones who finished in the top five last year to kick off 2015 with a win.

Prediction

Sure, the Brumbies destroyed the Reds last week, but that was on the back of the work of Pocock, who almost single-handedly starved the Reds of possession. This week with Cruden back to partner with SBW, as well as the match being played at New Plymouth, it makes it impossible to go past the Chiefs. Chiefs by 6.

CHIEFS: James Lowe, Bryce Heem, Charlie Ngatai, Sonny Bill Williams, Hosea Gear, Aaron Cruden, Brad Weber; Maama Vaipulu, Sam Cane, Liam Messam (capt), Michael Fitzgerald, Matt Symons, Siate Tokolahi, Hika Elliot, Jamie Mackintosh.

Reserves: Quentin MacDonald, Pauliasi Manu, Ben Tameifuna, Brodie Retallick, Tevita Koloamatangi, Augustine Pulu, Damian McKenzie, Seta Tamanivalu.

BRUMBIES:  Robbie Coleman, Henry Speight, Tevita Kuridrani, Christian Lealiifano,  Joseph Tomane, Matt Toomua, Nic White, Ita Vaea, Jarrad Butler, Scott Fardy, Rory Arnold, Sam Carter, Ben Alexander, Josh Mann-Rea, Scott Sio.

Reserves: Stephen Moore, Jean-Pierre Smith, Ruan Smith, Jordan Smiler, Sean Doyle, Michael Dowsett, James Dargaville, Lausii Taliauli.

Rebels V Waratahs

Some interesting stats in the lead-up to this match. The Waratahs have never started a season with two losses, and the Rebels have never started with two wins. The key to this match is the back-row, with the Rebels loose three putting in a high quality performance against the Crusaders and the Waratahs’ counterparts well below par against the Force, only managing one turn over in the 80 minutes.

The ‘Tahs won’t be helped by the loss of Wallaby Cliff Palu with a knee injury. Melbourne are missing suspended halfback Nic Stirzaker but have a very capable substitute in Luke Burgess. The Tahs match up well against the Rebels and surely couldn’t play as badly as they did against the Force.

Prediction

The Rebels will be coming into this match full of confidence after their amazing performance against the Crusaders, and the Waratahs will have a point to prove after failing against the Force.

The odds at most betting agencies have the ‘Tahs, playing at home a strong favourite, but I think it’ll be a lot closer than that suggests. Waratahs by 3.

REBELS: Mike Harris, Dom Shipperley, Tamati Ellison, Mitch Inman, Tom English, Jack Debreczeni, Luke Burgess (capt), Scott Higginbotham, Colby Fainga’a, Sean McMahon, Lopeti Timani, Luke Jones, Laurie Weeks, Pat Leafa, Toby Smith.

Reserves: Ben Whittaker, Cruze Ah-Nau, Paul Alo-Emile, Sam Jeffries, Scott Fuglistaller, Ben Meehan, Bryce Hegarty, Sefanaia Naivalu

WARATAHS: Israel Folau, Taqele Naiyaravaro, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Kurtley Beale, Rob Horne, Bernard Foley, Nick Phipps, Stephen Hoiles, Michael Hooper, Jaques Potgieter, Will Skelton, David Dennis (capt), Sekope Kepu, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson.

Reserves: Tolu Latu, Jeremy Tilse, Paddy Ryan, Sam Lousi, Mitchell Chapman, Brendan McKibbin, Matt Carraro, Pat McCutcheon, Peter Betham.

Bulls v Hurricanes

The Bulls fell way short of the lofty expectations many were expecting from them in their loss to the Stormers last week. The Hurricanes on the otherhand showed that the hapless Lions look destined for another cellar dweller season by beating them in Johannesburg.

Pierre Spies comes into the Bulls lineup as captain after replacing injured No.8 Arno Botha. Meanwhile, All Blacks centre Ma’a Nonu will make his first return appearance for the Hurricanes at the expense of Rey Lee-Lo. Flanker Callum Gibbins will also make his first start for the ‘Canes ahead of much-touted youngster Ardie Savea.

Prediction

The ‘Canes can go from hot to cold at a moments notice, and playing against a higher quality team this week in the shape of the Bulls, we can expect a much closer contest.

I think the Bulls will bounce back from last weeks results to put in a much beef-ier performance. Bulls by 4.

BULLS: Jesse Kriel, Bjorn Basson, JJ Engelbrecht, Jan Serfontein, Francois Hougaard, Handre Pollard, Piet van Zyl, Pierre Spies (capt), Lappies Labuschagne, Deon Stegmann, Victor Matfield, Jacques du Plessis, Trevor Nyakane, Adriaan Strauss, Morne Mellett.

Reserves: Callie Visagie, Dean Greyling, Dayan van der Westhuizen, Grant Hattingh, Hanro Liebenberg, Rudy Paige, Jacques-Louis Potgieter, Jurgen Visser.

HURRICANES: Jason Woodward, Cory Jane, Conrad Smith (capt), Ma’a Nonu, Julian Savea, Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara, Blade Thomson, Callum Gibbins, Brad Shields, James Broadhurst, Mark Abbott, Ben Franks, Dane Coles, Reggie Goodes.

Reserves: Brayden Mitchell, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Chris Eves, Ardie Savea, Victor Vito, Chris Smylie, James Marshall, Matt Proctor

Happy Tipping.

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It’s back! Super Rugby is finally back!

After a long Southern Hemisphere summer, with nothing better on TV than cricket, Super Rugby kicks off season 2015 with fixtures that include some massive local derby matches, such as Reds v Brumbies, Blues v Chiefs, Sharks v Cheetahs and Bulls v Stormers.

Crusaders V Rebels

The Crusaders are set to roll out the heavy artillery as the seven-time Super Rugby champions prepares to host Melbourne in Christchurch on Friday night.

Stung by three successive pre-season trial match losses, slow starts to the season is nothing new for the Crusaders. Coach Todd Blackadder has confirmed they will be playing, Wyatt Crockett, Richie McCaw, Ryan Crotty and Dan Carter against the Rebels.

However, while those four will be a boost to the Christchurch based team, they’ll still be without All Black stars,  Kieran Read, Israel Dagg, Sam Whitelock and Andy Ellis.

On the other hand, Melbourne will have almost a full list to choose from as it chases its first win abroad.

The Rebels have repeatedly gone close to snaring their first scalp in both New Zealand and South Africa but are yet to break through.

While little can, or should be read into pre-season form, the Rebels have had a far better start to the season, which included a 25-18 win over the Reds, where as the Crusaders fell to the Queensland team 35-12.

However, that positive momentum may count for little against a Crusaders team which is yet to show their full-strength team.

Prediction

Lets not beat around the bush. While many pundits will try to make much of trial matches, this is the first match played in anger, you can’t really take on board any more facts than the class of the two teams, and where the match is played. Crusaders by 12.

CRUSADERS (1-15): Joe Moody, Ben Funnell, Owen Franks, Luke Romano, Dominic Bird, Richie McCaw, Matt Todd (captain), Luke Whitelock, Mitchell Drummond, Daniel Carter, Johnny McNicholl, Tom Taylor, Kieron Fonotia, Robbie Fruean, Colin Slade.

Reserves: Codie Taylor, Alex Hodgman, Wyatt Crockett, Scott Barrett, Jordan Taufua, Billy Guyton, Ryan Crotty, Nathaniel Apa.

REBELS (1-15): Toby Smith, Pat Leafa, Laurie Weeks, Luke Jones, Lopeti Timani, Sean McMahon, Colby Fainga’a, Scott Higginbotham (c), Nic Stirzaker, Jack Debreczeni, Tom English, Mitch Inman, Tamati Ellison, Dom Shipperley, Mike Harris.

Reserves: Ben Whittaker, Cruze Ah-Nau, Paul Alo-Emile, Sam Jeffries, Scott Fuglistaller, Luke Burgess, Bryce Hegarty, Sefanaia Naivalu.

Reds V Brumbies

After the resurgence of the Reds over the seasons prior to last, many in Australia once considered this match-up to be the biggest, and most important in Australia. With the lack-lustre performance of the Reds in 2014, the gloss surrounding this match has some-what diminished for this season.

The Reds have left their bank manager a nervous wreck over the off season, with big name signings which include, Karmichael Hunt, James O’Connor, Adam Thompson, and ‘The Tongan Thor’.

With the kind of spending which hasn’t been seen in Brisbane for many years, the pressure is on Reds’ coach Richard Graham, a vast majority in Queensland seeing this year as Graham’s last chance. If he doesn’t perform in 2015, it may be the last we see of him for many years to come.

The Reds have had an up and down pre-season which included a loss to the Rebels, and a win over the Crusaders.

Much has been made over who will replace injured Reds fly-half Quade Cooper, but Rugby Leage/AFL/Rugby Union code-hopper Karmicheal Hunt has been given the nod for the opener in Canberra, after an impressive performance against the Crusaders at Ballymore last week, which left the Reds 28-0 up when he came off at half time.

So much has Hunt impressed, the Reds have handed him the vice captaincy in his first season back in rugby.

David Pocock has been named as the Brumbies’ run-on captain for the opener, although coach Stephen Larkham muddied the waters saying the entire squad was fit and available for selection.

That opens the way for Stephen Moore to make a surprising return off the bench as he makes his comeback from a knee reconstruction.

The Brumbies are coming off two losses in the pre-season trials, and this year will be a big test for the Canberra based franchise after losing stalwart forwards coach, and their co-head coach for the 2014 campaign, Laurie Fisher.

If the loss of Fisher has a detrimental affect on the Brumbies pack, it may force head coach, Stephen Larkham to change up the tried-and-true ‘Jake-Ball’ tactics, which have been the Brumbies trade-mark over the last few seasons.

Prediction

The Reds have an impressive line-up this year, and I have little doubt will perform better than they did in 2014. The Brumbies look strong, but may struggle with ‘Jake-Ball’ tactics after the loss of Fisher, Reds by 5.

BRUMBIES (1-15): Scott Sio, Josh Mann-Rea, Ben Alexander, Rory Arnold, Sam Carter, Scott Fardy, David Pocock (c), Jarrad Butler, Nic White (vc), Matt Toomua, Joe Tomane, Christian Lealiifano, Tevita Kuridrani, Henry Speight, Robbie Coleman.

Reserves: Stephen Moore, JP Smith, Ruan Smith, Jordan Smiler, Ita Vaea, Michael Dowsett, James Dargaville, Lausii Taliauli.

REDS (1-15): James Slipper (c), Saia Fainga’a, Sam Talakai, James Horwill, Marco Kotze, Curtis Browning, Liam Gill, Jake Schatz, Will Genia, Karmichael Hunt, Lachie Turner, Samu Kerevi, Chris Feauai-Sautia, Chris Kuridrani, Jamie-Jerry Taulagi.

Reserves: James Hanson, Ben Daley, Sef Faagase, Ed O’Donoghue, Adam Korczyk, Nick Frisby, Duncan Paia’aua, Campbell Magnay.

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Crusaders Vs Sharks

A heavyweight tussle between the Crusaders and Sharks kicks of four hours of griping rugby today. While the Crusaders have flexed their muscles since the June international break, the Sharks have struggled to find their early season form.

While the Sharks struggled to get past the Highlanders at home, they demonstrated set piece strength. However, the Crusaders are a step up in class and will need tighter back line defence is they are to stand any chance.

While the Sharks completely dominated the Highlanders scrum, it’ll be a different story against the Crusaders who boast half the All Blacks starting pack, and on percentages owns the most successful scrum in the competition this year.

The Sharks are the only team to have beaten the ‘Saders at home this year, but that match was arguably the Crusaders worst performance all year. No doubt the home team will be looking for revenge.

All Blacks captain McCaw makes a timely return to action after missing the Crusaders’ past three games with a rib injury he picked up while on Test duty. The superstar flanker’s availability will boost an already in-form pack boasting a stack of All Blacks talent, including skipper and No. 8 Kieran Read who looks to be back to the form that saw him crowned IRB world player of the year in 2013.

But McCaw will have his hands full against Coetzee, who has been in great touch himself and was a powerhouse against the Highlanders last week. The burly back-rower, who has been the leading ball-carrier for the Sharks this season, made nine bruising runs for 65m and crossed for an important try.

Sharks winger Mvovo looks set to be handed one of world rugby’s most unenviable tasks — shutting down Fijian flyer Nadolo. The Australian-born winger has been a revelation in his first season of Super Rugby, crossing for 10 tries to trail only Waratahs star Israel Folau (12). At 194cm and 125kg Nadolo is particularly hard to stop if he’s given time to hit top gear, and Crusaders playmakers Colin Slade and Dan Carter will be looking to do as often as possible.

Mvovo is no slouch in attack himself and leads the Sharks this season for run metres (920), tackle busts (40) and linebreaks (13). But he lacks Nadolo’s try-scoring prowess, crossing for only two five-pointers in 17 games.

The Crusaders and Sharks have met in two Super Rugby playoffs matches, with the New Zealanders winning both clashes, each time on home soil. They won their 2011 qualifying final 36-8 on their way to reaching the decider, and triumphed 36-32 in a 1998 semi-final before taking out the title.

The Sharks are trying to shake off a tag as one of Super Rugby’s biggest bridesmaid. They have made the playoffs on nine separate occasions but have failed to win a title in their four grand final appearances.

If any team is capable of causing an upset against the Crusaders at home, it’s the Sharks, however, there’s too much to play for. Because of this, I’m tipping the Crusaders to win by 6.

Waratahs Vs Brumbies

What a cracking semi-final this looms to be. Last time the bitter rivals met in Sydney for a top-four play-off, the Brumbies blew the Tahs out of the water. Little chance this time as a tight, yet entertaining, spectacle is promised.

Although NSW romped to the minor premiership and are title favourites, the Brumbies know what it’s like to win – and lose – big play-off games. They’ve produced their best performances of the season in wins over the Force and Chiefs and are playing with great pace and skill.

The Waratahs would have enjoyed a week’s rest and a chance to fix the worrying lineout problems the Reds exposed. But talk by some players they’re “unstoppable” and yet to hit their peak wouldn’t have been missed by their opponents. Expect a few news clippings pinned up on the Brumbies’ dressing room wall. It’s been a long time since the Tahs were in a tight one so the mental battle could be telling.

Last week against the Chiefs, the Brumbies surprisingly moved away from their old “Jakeball” game plan and played running rugby, to much success. The Tahs will have to be prepared for a team that could come out with two different tactics, and if the Brumbies resort to their long kicking game, how Folau handle’s it at the back will go a long way to determining a winner.

Both teams hate each other and are playing in a Super Rugby semi final in front of what should be close to a full house at Allianz Stadium. Need any more convincing to turn on the TV? How about 22 Wallabies facing off against each other?

These two sides split their regular season clashes. Stephen Larkham’s men got up 28-23 in Canberra in Round 5 but the Waratahs atoned with a 39-8 smashing of the injury-ravaged Brumbies in Sydney four weeks ago. The Brumbies are closer to full-strength this time around and have won four of their last six meetings with the Tahs, but their record in Sydney is atrocious. They have won just twice in 13 trips to the Harbour City, although one of those wins was a 51-10 triumph in the 2002 semi final.

With all that said, there won’t be much in it this weekend. The Tahs deserve to enter as favourites based on recent form and the Brumbies’ poor record in Sydney, but the men from Canberra know they’ve beaten the Tahs before this season and are perfectly capable of doing it again. But, I don’t think they will, however, it’ll be close. Waratahs by 7.

All I know is, both these games should be belters! If you choose not to watch either of them for what ever reason, there’s something wrong with you, and you should feel bad!

What’s your tips?

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The Brumbies raced out to a 22-3 lead on Saturday night, but as they learnt in last year’s grand final, you can never write off a side chasing their third straight title.

All Blacks fly-half Aaron Cruden spearheaded the fightback as the Chiefs levelled the scores midway through the second half.

But the Brumbies regained the advantage with a converted try from a well-constructed driving maul before Cruden failed to convert a Gareth Anscombe five-pointer with three minutes to go.

It was sweet revenge for the Brumbies as Ben Mowen won what is likely to be his last and 50th game as skipper in front of 14,284 fans at Canberra Stadium.

Workhorse lock Sam Carter was able to constantly get over the advantage line, while it took three Chiefs players to bring down superb winger Henry Speight on most occasions.

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Brumbies Vs Chiefs

In a replay of last year’s grand final, the Brumbies get the first shot at knocking the two-time defending champions out. While the Brumbies are talking down the ‘revenge’ angle, you can be sure there is not one player amongst them who has forgotten the pain of having the trophy ripped from their grasp in the final 15 minutes of Super Rugby last year.

For the Chiefs this is their chance to respond to their critics and show that they are not pretenders, but genuine contenders. Sudden death play-off games realistically started last week for the Chiefs, and if the Chiefs are to make it three in a row, they have to do it the hard way.

The Brumbies have made just one starting tweak, Robbie Coleman returning from a quad niggle for injured winger Clyde Rathbone (hamstring). The Chiefs will also have the luxury of making just one change, with Dwayne Sweeney starting at fullback, pushing Tom Marshall to the bench.

The Brumbies are coming into this qualifying final full of momentum after smashing the Western Force 47-25 in Canberra last week. Five-eighth Matt Toomua picked up a hat-trick in the win, and his battle with All Blacks No.10 Aaron Cruden should be a cracker.

The Chiefs only just scraped into the finals with an 11-8 victory over the Blues last week. But they’ve proven they’re a big-match side, winning their last four finals matches – albeit all at home.

The Chiefs thrive off broken play, and the Brumbies thrive off denying their opposition of opportunities. The Brumbies have one of the best set piece forward packs in the competition and will be looking to dominate the scrum and the lineout. We can expect the Brumbies to get on top of the Chiefs forward pack early on, and continue that dominance throughout the 80 minutes.

Because of that, we’re tipping the Brumbies to get on top at home. Brumbies to win by 6.

Sharks Vs Highlanders

The Highlanders have been woeful away from home this year, they’ve lost all three of their last away matches, two of which were heavy defeats to the table topping Waratahs and Crusaders. With just one win in the last month, the Highlanders have limped their way into the top six, form seems to have deserted them at the wrong end of the season.

Everyone is writing off the Highlanders against the Sharks; their third match against a conference leading team in as many weeks. But with co-captain Ben Smith returning from a leg infection to take his place as custodian, his kick-returns will go a long way to nullifying the Sharks ‘Jakeball’ kicking game.

The Highlanders will also take confidence from the fact they shocked the Sharks with a bonus-point win in Durban in round 11. That was the first loss the Sharks suffered at home in nine games.

Meanwhile, never one to shirk away from a big call, Sharks’ director of rugby Jake White is risking the return of five-eighth Pat Lambie. The Springbok back hasn’t played competitive rugby since March 22 when he injured a bicep against the Bulls. But with the Sharks re-discovering their mojo with a 34-10 win over the Stormers last week, his return would be more readily accommodated this week than it would if they are to book a date against the Crusaders.

Despite the Sharks form deserting them in the last few weeks, you can never write them off at home. And coupled with the Highlanders seemingly forgetting how to play the game the minutes they board a plane, we’re tipping the Sharks to win by 12.

Happy tipping, what your thoughts?

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With nine teams still in contention for the finals, most teams find themselves in a must win situation. Over the next two days, we find out who plays on and who goes home.

 Blues Vs. Chiefs

The first of four games with massive finals ramifications. Expect a high-octane affair, the Blues MUST win by at least 38, scoring a minimum of five tries along the way. There will be no holding back by the Blues, they’ll certainly have a tries at all costs mentality. Yet, the Blues will still be knocked out if the Chiefs or the loser of Brumbies v Force jag a bonus point.

The equation for the Chiefs is simple, win. A win will guarantee them finals birth, if they don’t win, they MUST gain two bonus points to have any chance. One bonus point for the Chiefs will not be enough to get ahead of the Hurricanes, who have a far superior for and against (63 vs. 3).

Making life tough for the Blues will be the absence of Luke Braid and Tony Woodcock. The Chiefs have made just one change, with centre Bundee Aki replacing the injured Charlie Ngatai.

The only home game the Blues have lost all year was against the Sharks in North Harbour, and the Blues are yet to drop a game at Eden Park this season. Because of the Blues form in Auckland, I’m tipping them to take it out.

Blues to win by 12 in a highly entertaining match.

 Brumbies Vs. Force

The finals scenario is the same for both these teams, they’re both locked on 40 points and the same amount of wins. The winner of this match will be hot favorites to finish in 4th and secure a home qualifying final.

Even in a losing team, a bonus point should be enough to get the loser through – if my tip in the previous game (Blues v Chiefs) holds true. A losing bonus point will put them equal on points with the Hurricanes (41) but both the Brumbies and the Force have a superior number of wins, and will thus move higher on the table.

Wallabies Matt Toomua and Sam Carter are back for the Brumbies after their last-start loss to the Waratahs – not to mention third-string hooker Josh Mann-Rea. The Force have lost powerful flanker Hugh McMeniman to a one-week suspension for kneeing. In the visitors’ favour is the fact the Brumbies haven’t won a last-round match since 2007, with the Force beating them last year and in 2008.

Even though last round form is against the Brumbies they should still be too strong at home. The Brumbies will no doubt look to secure a win before going for a bonus point, meaning a lot of penalty goals being traded. Because of this, the Force should have an easy-ish time in hunting a losing bonus point.

I’m tipping the Brumbies by 4.

 Bulls Vs. Rebels

One of only two ‘who cares’ matches of the final round. There is little to play for, for these two teams other than pride. Both teams are out of finals contention, but it’s likely the Rebels will be more desperate than the Bulls.

Only a win for the Rebels will give them a chance of avoiding the wooden spoon following last weeks loss to the Lions. They’ll have to do so without skipper Scott Higginbotham, who has received a one-game suspension for repeated yellow cards this season.

The Bulls haven’t lost at their high-altitude home all year. They’ll be hurting after last week’s 16-0 loss to the Stormers and will want to avoid finishing the season with three straight defeats.

The Rebels really have had a season to forget, and the Bulls will want to finish on a high, because of this and the Bulls home ground form, I’m tipping the Bulls to win by 14.

What’s your predictions?

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Table as it stands after round 18

Let’s take a look.

Firstly, we should take into consideration how SANZAR separates teams who are locked on the same total points at the end of the season:

1.  Most wins
2. Highest aggregate points difference
3. Most tries
4. Highest aggregate difference between tries scored and tries conceded
5. Toss of the coin

Crusaders possible finishing position: 2nd – 4th

For the Crusaders to keep second place on the table they must win, preferably with a bonus point. If the Sharks get a win, they’ll be on the same points. But they’re only eight behind in terms of for and against.

The big advantage for the Crusaders, if they end up on the same total at the end of the week as the Sharks, the Crusaders are a long way ahead of the Sharks on tries scored. But the only way to guarantee a second place finish, is to get a big win over the Highlanders.

However, if they do lose, they are still guaranteed a home qualifying final.

Sharks possible finishing positions: 2nd – 3rd

The Sharks will realistically need to win convincingly, and with a bonus point against the Stormers to claim second. They are 11 tries behind the Crusaders over the course of the season but are only eight behind on points difference. Because of this, we may see the Sharks break out of the penalty goal mentality this weekend.

The good news for the Sharks is they are that far ahead on the South African conference they can’t possible finish any lower than where they currently are.

Highlanders possible finishing positions: 2nd – 7th

For the Highlanders to finish second, they need to win with a bonus point, and hope neither the Sharks or the Crusaders gain anything out of their last round matches.

While the Highlanders have scored more tries than either the Crusaders or the Sharks, they are too far behind on wins and points for and against to get ahead of either of them, if they end up locked on equal points.

A bonus point of any kind will be enough for the Highlanders to finish in the top six. But if they fail to gain a bonus point in a loss to the Crusaders, and a scenario where the following two things all play out; The loser of the Force v Brumbies match gaining two bonus points, and the Chiefs beat the Blues, they will find themselves out of the top six all together.

Hurricanes possible finishing positions: 6th – 9th

The Hurricanes are in a position that no team ever wants to be in. They have to rely on other results to keep them in the race.

For the Canes to remain in the top six, the need the Blues to beat the Chiefs by no more than 37, while hoping the Chiefs gain no more than one bonus point, max. As well as praying that the loser out of the Brumbies v Force don’t take any bonus points home.

I’m afraid to say, that when I shook the magic 8-ball, it came up “out look, not good” for Hurricanes fans.

Brumbies possible finishing positions: 4th – 9th

The Brumbies are in a good position to claim 4th spot at the end of next week. They’ll only need to get a win against the Force at home and hope the Crusaders beat the Highlanders (which they are strong favorites to do). With the Chiefs being two wins behind the Brumbies, that should be enough for them to claim 4th.

However, if they do lose, they NEED to get a bonus point. Any bonus point will put them ahead of the Hurricanes, but even that may not be enough to keep them in the top six. If they gain two bonus points in a loss to the Force and the Highlanders lose, then that will be enough for the Brumbies to stay in the finals race. If they lose with only one bonus point, then they need to pray the Blues beat the Chiefs.

In the event where the Brumbies draw against the Force, that will also be enough to get them through, and still possibly claim 4th if both the Highlanders and the Chiefs go down.

Force possible finishing positions: 4th – 9th

With the Force and the Brumbies both locked on 40 points and playing each other in the final round, the Force are in the same boat as the Canberrans in terms of possible outcomes.

The only difference is, if they draw with the Brumbies, without gaining a four-try bonus point, the Force couldn’t possibly take 4th.

Chiefs possible finishing positions: 4th – 9th

The Chiefs pretty much need to win to keep their title defense alive. Any win will be enough to get them into the top six, but a bonus point victory, while hoping the loser of the Brumbies v Force game don’t gain a bonus point, and at the same time, if the Highlanders lose to the Crusaders, we will see the Chiefs finish 4th and secure a home qualifying final.

If the Chiefs do go down against the Blues, they’ll need to take two bonus points out of the match, as well as praying the loser of the Brumbies v Force only gain one bonus point, max. In that scenario, the Chiefs will finish 6th. Same result if they draw with the Blues.

Lastly, I’m only mentioning this to cover all bases, this is the most improbable outcome of all the hypothetical situations I have, and will cover; If the Chiefs draw with a bonus point, and the Brumbies and Force draw without a bonus point, as well as the Highlanders losing, in that scenario, the Chiefs would finish 4th.

Blues possible finishing position: 6th – 9th

There is no more than one situation where the Blues can make the play-offs. They need to win BIG, and with a bonus point.

They’ll need to beat the Chiefs by at least 38 points, as well as praying the loser out of the Brumbies v Force don’t gain any bonus points out of their match.
If the Brumbies, Force or Chiefs gain a bonus point in a losing match, their season will be over.

RBP’s prediction

How do we think the table will finish up I hear you ask? Well, I’m glad you asked.

1. Waratahs
2. Crusaders
3. Sharks
4. Brumbies
5. Highlanders
6. Force
7. Hurricanes
8. Blues
9. Chiefs

What’s your final table predictions?

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Hurricanes Vs Crusaders

The Hurricanes have proven themselves to be one of the most entertaining teams in this years competition in an up and down, roller coaster ride of a season. But it will all be for nothing if they can’t manage to get on top of the conference leading Crusaders today.

With the Chiefs and a last-round bye to follow, victory is essential. They’ve taken a hit with skipper Conrad Smith (broken thumb) sidelined until the play-offs.

The Crusaders are also without their inspirational captain as Richie McCaw is nursing broken ribs. The third-placed visitors are also without giant winger Nemani Nadolo but have big guns Dan Carter and Kieran Read set to make long-awaited returns from the bench.

While we think the Hurricanes will have the edge in the back line, the Crusaders should to too strong up front where it counts. The Crusaders’ defense has been impressive this season where as the Hurricanes’ has been near non existent at times.

We’re tipping the Crusaders in a close one.

Waratahs Vs Brumbies 

Victory today for the Waratahs will see the end of the Sharks reign, looking down on the rest of the competition from high aloft the table.

The Brumbies have won just twice in Sydney but must overcome an horrific injury toll to make it a third. Last year’s runners up must do without Stephen Moore, Sam Carter, Matt Toomua and Pat McCabe while the Waratahs have the luxury of using Wallabies starter Will Skelton off the bench.

For the Brumbies, no.12 fill-in Andrew Smith is in his run-on doubt. Moore’s loss is huge with Laurie Fisher forced to convert Irish prop Ruaidhri Murphy into a hooker.

In contrast, the star-studded Tahs look the real deal. Despite a three-week break, their momentum has continued with NSW’s big guns carrying their form through the Wallabies’ series whitewash over France.

Three straight wins over the Brumbies, Highlanders and Reds will ensure a home semi-final and, if they are good enough, grand final.

If this was a full strength Brumbies line-up playing today, this would be a hugely difficult game to predict. However, it’s not. With the lack of star players, we can expect the Brumbies to resort to their go to game plan – territory and capitalizing on mistakes.

The Brumbies defense will have to be at it’s best to stand a chance today. However, the Tahs playing at home should be too strong. We predict the Waratahs to win with a 10-15 point margin.

Force Vs Blues 

John Kirwan will be delighted to have all six of his All Blacks returning for a tough trip to Perth on Saturday night as the Aucklanders look to keep their faint play-offs alive against a side who won’t hand the ball over lightly.

The Blues have a tough run to the finish line, and will need to rediscover their mojo on the road if they are to have a chance.

The Force may be seventh on the standings but with three teams ahead having byes, their destiny is in their own hands; two wins out of three likely enough for a maiden finals berth. Victory over the Blues will be crucial to that equation.

Michael Foley welcomes back key trio Alby Mathewson, Hugh McMeniman and Marcel Brache for a tough clash with the inconsistent Aucklanders.  The Blues have put big flanker Steven Luatua back into their back-row and boast a talent-laden backline the Force will be hard pressed to contain. Young gun Ihaia West has kept his spot at no.10.

The Blues are yet to win away from home this season, and we can’t see that trend changing tonight. While at times the Force seem like they’re struggling, they always manage to find a way to hold on.

Because of that, we predict the Force to win in with a 10 point margin.

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Matt Hodgson, Force captain

Our last Super Rugby highlight’s package before the international break.

Waratahs secure their spot at the top of the Australian conference with a win over the Chiefs, Crusaders roll on with a big win over the Force. Pretty much ever team at the bottom of the table picks up a win and the Sharks jeopardize their hopes of a home grand final.

When Super Rugby starts up again on June 27, there are some big matches which will shape the top six.

Tahs have two tough matches coming up against the Brumbies and the Highlanders, but have home ground advantage for both.

Crusaders play Hurricanes, Highlanders and Blues. Highlanders don’t have it much easier with the Chiefs on top of the other games already mentioned. Hurricanes also play the Chiefs and have a bye in the final round.

The Force play at home to the Blues and Reds before a tough final game away to the Brumbies. And on top of the games mentioned, the Brumbies still have a round 18 bye to come.

The Sharks have a bye and two away games to the Cheetahs and Stormers, and they can’t afford to drop either of them if they still harbour hopes of hosting the grand final.

There are some mouth-watering, action packed rounds still to come. But, here are the highlights from round 16. Enjoy.

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