The Springboks and Wales get down to test rugby proper when the Boks host Wales in Durban this Saturday.
South Africa won 10 out of their 12 matches in 2013, only losses coming at the hands of the All Blacks. They were a little slow out of the blocks in the June internationals last year with both Italy and Scotland staying in contention for longer than expected. The Boks will surely want to turn that around.
The big question coming into this game for South Africa is how will the sudden departure of Frans Steyn affect their game plan?
The midfield combination of Steyn and JP Pietersen did well against the World XV in Cape Town last week, and would have used the coming match against Wales to make a further statement. As Nick Mallett said afterwards, there probably isn’t a bigger centre combination in world rugby, and those physical attributes are a factor when it comes to defence.
With Steyn ruling himself out, and several other potential midfield applicants unavailable through injury, Henke Meyer has called up Jan Serfontein.
He’s no midget at 1.87m and 98kg, and yet, he’ll be standing in the shadow of a Welsh Goliath this Saturday. Opposite number Jamie Roberts is a giant of midfielder at 1.93m and 110kg.
In the warm up against the World XV, there was need for concern in the scrum and at the breakdown. Meyer responded to this by putting Beast on the bench and giving Steenkamp another shot at the starting team.
One surprise from Wales, following Sam Warburton being ruled out due to injury was the lack of a specialist openside flanker in the squad. The hard working loose forward will be missed for his work in the tight and defense, but Wales possess many other forwards who are capable of putting a dent into the Boks both in attack and in defense.
Roberts was at his destructive best when Wales so nearly beat South Africa during the pool stages of the 2011 World Cup. When his forwards provide him with a platform, he can be especially difficult to stop.
Frans Steyn, while strong in head on defense can sometimes find it difficult to move laterally, so with the addition of Serfontein to the Bok backline, and without Steyn, Warren Gatland may take a more direct approach in attacking the 10/12 channel than he would have otherwise.
Morne Steyn and Serfontein will need the Bok pack to fire as they did against Wales in Cardiff last November. This will aid him in his mission to contain Roberts, not to mention Jonathan Davies and what is a formidable Welsh back three.
In recent tests, Wales has had difficulty in getting the ball out to their number one strike weapon, George North, but being marked by Habana, North will need other players in support if he breaks the line.
Wales showed good form at home during the six nations, winning all three played there. But struggled on the road, losing to both England and Ireland. They played a warm-up against the Kings last weekend taking a 22-point win, but their performance was still below par, coming into the game as a 45-point favorite.
Key Match-Up
Front Row
The dominance of the South African front row is on the line. Since the law change to the engagement, the Boks have struggled to maintain the dominance they once had. As was seen last weekend against the World XV, when coming up against a more canny European front row, raw, brute force isn’t always enough. Wales come into the test with a strong scrummaging tight five. And will no doubt approach the scrum with a more tactical mindset.
Early dominance at the scrum for Wales will give them a physiological edge, which could transfer to a stronger performance at the breakdown.
Head To Head
Overall: Boks 25, Wales 1, Draw 1
In South Africa: Boks 8, Wales 0
Our Prediction
Wales big hope is to hold on tight in the forwards and contain the South African speedsters out wide. While Wales possess many strike weapons themselves in the backline, their big hope will be to hold on in the forwards, where South Africa uncharacteristically struggled last week.
However, I can’t see the Bok forwards having a second stinker in a row. If Wales can slow down the South African ball, they will have a chance. If not, it could be a blow out.
I’m tipping South Africa to win by 16
Teams
Springboks 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Gurthro Steenkamp.
Bench 16 Schalk Brits, 17 Beast Mtawarira, 18 Coenie Oosthuizen, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Schalk Burger, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Johan Goosen, 23 Lwazi Mvovo.
Wales 15 Liam Williams, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Aaron Shingler, 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Luke Charteris, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Bench 16 Matthew Rees, 17 Paul James, 18 Samson Lee, 19 Ian Evans, 20 Josh Turnbull, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 James Hook, 23 Matthew Morgan.