Melbourne Rebels’ Mike Harris’ looping underarm pass facilitated a simple run in try for Sefanaia Naivalu in last weekend’s clash between Waratah’s and a the Rebels; but the question remains, was the pass borne from an audacious moment of quick witted Rugby thinking or was Lady Lucky a factor?

Clip Credit: Le-Rugbynistere

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There’s only been one round played, it’s a bit early to be calling it. Especially when many of the New Zealand and South African teams are resting stars.

Chiefs V Brumbies

The Chiefs are bringing back their stars, and the Brumbies have lost David Pocock, yet again, to injury. Fortunately it’s his ankle, not his knee on this occasion, and he will be back in 4-6 weeks.

Returning for the Chiefs are All Blacks forwards Brodie Retallick and Liam Messam, while flyhalf Aaron Cruden will rekindle his partnership with superstar Sonny Bill Williams. Remarkably, these two teams were the only ones who finished in the top five last year to kick off 2015 with a win.

Prediction

Sure, the Brumbies destroyed the Reds last week, but that was on the back of the work of Pocock, who almost single-handedly starved the Reds of possession. This week with Cruden back to partner with SBW, as well as the match being played at New Plymouth, it makes it impossible to go past the Chiefs. Chiefs by 6.

CHIEFS: James Lowe, Bryce Heem, Charlie Ngatai, Sonny Bill Williams, Hosea Gear, Aaron Cruden, Brad Weber; Maama Vaipulu, Sam Cane, Liam Messam (capt), Michael Fitzgerald, Matt Symons, Siate Tokolahi, Hika Elliot, Jamie Mackintosh.

Reserves: Quentin MacDonald, Pauliasi Manu, Ben Tameifuna, Brodie Retallick, Tevita Koloamatangi, Augustine Pulu, Damian McKenzie, Seta Tamanivalu.

BRUMBIES:  Robbie Coleman, Henry Speight, Tevita Kuridrani, Christian Lealiifano,  Joseph Tomane, Matt Toomua, Nic White, Ita Vaea, Jarrad Butler, Scott Fardy, Rory Arnold, Sam Carter, Ben Alexander, Josh Mann-Rea, Scott Sio.

Reserves: Stephen Moore, Jean-Pierre Smith, Ruan Smith, Jordan Smiler, Sean Doyle, Michael Dowsett, James Dargaville, Lausii Taliauli.

Rebels V Waratahs

Some interesting stats in the lead-up to this match. The Waratahs have never started a season with two losses, and the Rebels have never started with two wins. The key to this match is the back-row, with the Rebels loose three putting in a high quality performance against the Crusaders and the Waratahs’ counterparts well below par against the Force, only managing one turn over in the 80 minutes.

The ‘Tahs won’t be helped by the loss of Wallaby Cliff Palu with a knee injury. Melbourne are missing suspended halfback Nic Stirzaker but have a very capable substitute in Luke Burgess. The Tahs match up well against the Rebels and surely couldn’t play as badly as they did against the Force.

Prediction

The Rebels will be coming into this match full of confidence after their amazing performance against the Crusaders, and the Waratahs will have a point to prove after failing against the Force.

The odds at most betting agencies have the ‘Tahs, playing at home a strong favourite, but I think it’ll be a lot closer than that suggests. Waratahs by 3.

REBELS: Mike Harris, Dom Shipperley, Tamati Ellison, Mitch Inman, Tom English, Jack Debreczeni, Luke Burgess (capt), Scott Higginbotham, Colby Fainga’a, Sean McMahon, Lopeti Timani, Luke Jones, Laurie Weeks, Pat Leafa, Toby Smith.

Reserves: Ben Whittaker, Cruze Ah-Nau, Paul Alo-Emile, Sam Jeffries, Scott Fuglistaller, Ben Meehan, Bryce Hegarty, Sefanaia Naivalu

WARATAHS: Israel Folau, Taqele Naiyaravaro, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Kurtley Beale, Rob Horne, Bernard Foley, Nick Phipps, Stephen Hoiles, Michael Hooper, Jaques Potgieter, Will Skelton, David Dennis (capt), Sekope Kepu, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn Robinson.

Reserves: Tolu Latu, Jeremy Tilse, Paddy Ryan, Sam Lousi, Mitchell Chapman, Brendan McKibbin, Matt Carraro, Pat McCutcheon, Peter Betham.

Bulls v Hurricanes

The Bulls fell way short of the lofty expectations many were expecting from them in their loss to the Stormers last week. The Hurricanes on the otherhand showed that the hapless Lions look destined for another cellar dweller season by beating them in Johannesburg.

Pierre Spies comes into the Bulls lineup as captain after replacing injured No.8 Arno Botha. Meanwhile, All Blacks centre Ma’a Nonu will make his first return appearance for the Hurricanes at the expense of Rey Lee-Lo. Flanker Callum Gibbins will also make his first start for the ‘Canes ahead of much-touted youngster Ardie Savea.

Prediction

The ‘Canes can go from hot to cold at a moments notice, and playing against a higher quality team this week in the shape of the Bulls, we can expect a much closer contest.

I think the Bulls will bounce back from last weeks results to put in a much beef-ier performance. Bulls by 4.

BULLS: Jesse Kriel, Bjorn Basson, JJ Engelbrecht, Jan Serfontein, Francois Hougaard, Handre Pollard, Piet van Zyl, Pierre Spies (capt), Lappies Labuschagne, Deon Stegmann, Victor Matfield, Jacques du Plessis, Trevor Nyakane, Adriaan Strauss, Morne Mellett.

Reserves: Callie Visagie, Dean Greyling, Dayan van der Westhuizen, Grant Hattingh, Hanro Liebenberg, Rudy Paige, Jacques-Louis Potgieter, Jurgen Visser.

HURRICANES: Jason Woodward, Cory Jane, Conrad Smith (capt), Ma’a Nonu, Julian Savea, Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara, Blade Thomson, Callum Gibbins, Brad Shields, James Broadhurst, Mark Abbott, Ben Franks, Dane Coles, Reggie Goodes.

Reserves: Brayden Mitchell, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Chris Eves, Ardie Savea, Victor Vito, Chris Smylie, James Marshall, Matt Proctor

Happy Tipping.

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It’s back! Super Rugby is finally back!

After a long Southern Hemisphere summer, with nothing better on TV than cricket, Super Rugby kicks off season 2015 with fixtures that include some massive local derby matches, such as Reds v Brumbies, Blues v Chiefs, Sharks v Cheetahs and Bulls v Stormers.

Crusaders V Rebels

The Crusaders are set to roll out the heavy artillery as the seven-time Super Rugby champions prepares to host Melbourne in Christchurch on Friday night.

Stung by three successive pre-season trial match losses, slow starts to the season is nothing new for the Crusaders. Coach Todd Blackadder has confirmed they will be playing, Wyatt Crockett, Richie McCaw, Ryan Crotty and Dan Carter against the Rebels.

However, while those four will be a boost to the Christchurch based team, they’ll still be without All Black stars,  Kieran Read, Israel Dagg, Sam Whitelock and Andy Ellis.

On the other hand, Melbourne will have almost a full list to choose from as it chases its first win abroad.

The Rebels have repeatedly gone close to snaring their first scalp in both New Zealand and South Africa but are yet to break through.

While little can, or should be read into pre-season form, the Rebels have had a far better start to the season, which included a 25-18 win over the Reds, where as the Crusaders fell to the Queensland team 35-12.

However, that positive momentum may count for little against a Crusaders team which is yet to show their full-strength team.

Prediction

Lets not beat around the bush. While many pundits will try to make much of trial matches, this is the first match played in anger, you can’t really take on board any more facts than the class of the two teams, and where the match is played. Crusaders by 12.

CRUSADERS (1-15): Joe Moody, Ben Funnell, Owen Franks, Luke Romano, Dominic Bird, Richie McCaw, Matt Todd (captain), Luke Whitelock, Mitchell Drummond, Daniel Carter, Johnny McNicholl, Tom Taylor, Kieron Fonotia, Robbie Fruean, Colin Slade.

Reserves: Codie Taylor, Alex Hodgman, Wyatt Crockett, Scott Barrett, Jordan Taufua, Billy Guyton, Ryan Crotty, Nathaniel Apa.

REBELS (1-15): Toby Smith, Pat Leafa, Laurie Weeks, Luke Jones, Lopeti Timani, Sean McMahon, Colby Fainga’a, Scott Higginbotham (c), Nic Stirzaker, Jack Debreczeni, Tom English, Mitch Inman, Tamati Ellison, Dom Shipperley, Mike Harris.

Reserves: Ben Whittaker, Cruze Ah-Nau, Paul Alo-Emile, Sam Jeffries, Scott Fuglistaller, Luke Burgess, Bryce Hegarty, Sefanaia Naivalu.

Reds V Brumbies

After the resurgence of the Reds over the seasons prior to last, many in Australia once considered this match-up to be the biggest, and most important in Australia. With the lack-lustre performance of the Reds in 2014, the gloss surrounding this match has some-what diminished for this season.

The Reds have left their bank manager a nervous wreck over the off season, with big name signings which include, Karmichael Hunt, James O’Connor, Adam Thompson, and ‘The Tongan Thor’.

With the kind of spending which hasn’t been seen in Brisbane for many years, the pressure is on Reds’ coach Richard Graham, a vast majority in Queensland seeing this year as Graham’s last chance. If he doesn’t perform in 2015, it may be the last we see of him for many years to come.

The Reds have had an up and down pre-season which included a loss to the Rebels, and a win over the Crusaders.

Much has been made over who will replace injured Reds fly-half Quade Cooper, but Rugby Leage/AFL/Rugby Union code-hopper Karmicheal Hunt has been given the nod for the opener in Canberra, after an impressive performance against the Crusaders at Ballymore last week, which left the Reds 28-0 up when he came off at half time.

So much has Hunt impressed, the Reds have handed him the vice captaincy in his first season back in rugby.

David Pocock has been named as the Brumbies’ run-on captain for the opener, although coach Stephen Larkham muddied the waters saying the entire squad was fit and available for selection.

That opens the way for Stephen Moore to make a surprising return off the bench as he makes his comeback from a knee reconstruction.

The Brumbies are coming off two losses in the pre-season trials, and this year will be a big test for the Canberra based franchise after losing stalwart forwards coach, and their co-head coach for the 2014 campaign, Laurie Fisher.

If the loss of Fisher has a detrimental affect on the Brumbies pack, it may force head coach, Stephen Larkham to change up the tried-and-true ‘Jake-Ball’ tactics, which have been the Brumbies trade-mark over the last few seasons.

Prediction

The Reds have an impressive line-up this year, and I have little doubt will perform better than they did in 2014. The Brumbies look strong, but may struggle with ‘Jake-Ball’ tactics after the loss of Fisher, Reds by 5.

BRUMBIES (1-15): Scott Sio, Josh Mann-Rea, Ben Alexander, Rory Arnold, Sam Carter, Scott Fardy, David Pocock (c), Jarrad Butler, Nic White (vc), Matt Toomua, Joe Tomane, Christian Lealiifano, Tevita Kuridrani, Henry Speight, Robbie Coleman.

Reserves: Stephen Moore, JP Smith, Ruan Smith, Jordan Smiler, Ita Vaea, Michael Dowsett, James Dargaville, Lausii Taliauli.

REDS (1-15): James Slipper (c), Saia Fainga’a, Sam Talakai, James Horwill, Marco Kotze, Curtis Browning, Liam Gill, Jake Schatz, Will Genia, Karmichael Hunt, Lachie Turner, Samu Kerevi, Chris Feauai-Sautia, Chris Kuridrani, Jamie-Jerry Taulagi.

Reserves: James Hanson, Ben Daley, Sef Faagase, Ed O’Donoghue, Adam Korczyk, Nick Frisby, Duncan Paia’aua, Campbell Magnay.

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With nine teams still in contention for the finals, most teams find themselves in a must win situation. Over the next two days, we find out who plays on and who goes home.

 Blues Vs. Chiefs

The first of four games with massive finals ramifications. Expect a high-octane affair, the Blues MUST win by at least 38, scoring a minimum of five tries along the way. There will be no holding back by the Blues, they’ll certainly have a tries at all costs mentality. Yet, the Blues will still be knocked out if the Chiefs or the loser of Brumbies v Force jag a bonus point.

The equation for the Chiefs is simple, win. A win will guarantee them finals birth, if they don’t win, they MUST gain two bonus points to have any chance. One bonus point for the Chiefs will not be enough to get ahead of the Hurricanes, who have a far superior for and against (63 vs. 3).

Making life tough for the Blues will be the absence of Luke Braid and Tony Woodcock. The Chiefs have made just one change, with centre Bundee Aki replacing the injured Charlie Ngatai.

The only home game the Blues have lost all year was against the Sharks in North Harbour, and the Blues are yet to drop a game at Eden Park this season. Because of the Blues form in Auckland, I’m tipping them to take it out.

Blues to win by 12 in a highly entertaining match.

 Brumbies Vs. Force

The finals scenario is the same for both these teams, they’re both locked on 40 points and the same amount of wins. The winner of this match will be hot favorites to finish in 4th and secure a home qualifying final.

Even in a losing team, a bonus point should be enough to get the loser through – if my tip in the previous game (Blues v Chiefs) holds true. A losing bonus point will put them equal on points with the Hurricanes (41) but both the Brumbies and the Force have a superior number of wins, and will thus move higher on the table.

Wallabies Matt Toomua and Sam Carter are back for the Brumbies after their last-start loss to the Waratahs – not to mention third-string hooker Josh Mann-Rea. The Force have lost powerful flanker Hugh McMeniman to a one-week suspension for kneeing. In the visitors’ favour is the fact the Brumbies haven’t won a last-round match since 2007, with the Force beating them last year and in 2008.

Even though last round form is against the Brumbies they should still be too strong at home. The Brumbies will no doubt look to secure a win before going for a bonus point, meaning a lot of penalty goals being traded. Because of this, the Force should have an easy-ish time in hunting a losing bonus point.

I’m tipping the Brumbies by 4.

 Bulls Vs. Rebels

One of only two ‘who cares’ matches of the final round. There is little to play for, for these two teams other than pride. Both teams are out of finals contention, but it’s likely the Rebels will be more desperate than the Bulls.

Only a win for the Rebels will give them a chance of avoiding the wooden spoon following last weeks loss to the Lions. They’ll have to do so without skipper Scott Higginbotham, who has received a one-game suspension for repeated yellow cards this season.

The Bulls haven’t lost at their high-altitude home all year. They’ll be hurting after last week’s 16-0 loss to the Stormers and will want to avoid finishing the season with three straight defeats.

The Rebels really have had a season to forget, and the Bulls will want to finish on a high, because of this and the Bulls home ground form, I’m tipping the Bulls to win by 14.

What’s your predictions?

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One match on tonight that will be pivotal in deciding what the ultimate shape of the final six will be.

Chiefs v Hurricanes

It’s crunch time for both these teams today, a loss here will be the end of the road for one. While the Canes be without Conrad Smith, Alapati Leiua, Andre Taylor and Victor Vito, it’s the fitness of rake Dane Coles (calf) who the Canes are sweating over amid a hooker crisis.

Winning will be made even more difficult by the fact the Chiefs’ destiny remains in their own hands. Despite losing their last three, including a 37-point hiding by the Canes, the defending champions can still sneak into the finals with two wins.

I’m tipping the Chiefs, as long as they can get their wayward lineout together and keep the penalty count low.

Chiefs by 8

Lions v Rebels

Only die hard Lions and Rebels fans will really care about the outcome of this dead rubber. Although in the cellar, both proud teams should come out firing as the loser could very well end up with the dreaded wooden-spoon.

Expect Rebels hooker and Japanese international Shota Horie to be full of confidence after re-signing earlier this week. That said, the Lions have surprised all by winning four of their six home games this season. And those two losses were to the conference-leading Sharks and Crusaders.

The Rebels are yet to win outside Australia and Rebels coach Tony McGahan blasted his side for their “soft” performance against the Reds. The Rebels have made four changes for the clash and they’ll need to harden up quickly and keep their discipline to have any chance.

I’m tipping the Lions to get there on the boot of Boshoff, Lions by 6.

Good luck, good tipping!

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That Conrad Smith has to be up there as a contender for try of the season, absolute magic from the Hurricans.

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