The series may have been decided but it’s not over yet. New South Wales have the very rare opportunity to take the series 3-0, whitewashing the Queenslanders for just the fourth time in Origin history, and the first since 2000.

The Blues would love to stamp their authority on this series with a second win in enemy territory but the Maroons are a proud bunch and a whitewash at home after the era they’ve had would be unthinkable. Dead rubber certainly isn’t a phrase being thrown around in these two camps.

Games I and II were played in contrasting fashion. Game I was a largely free flowing affair with plenty of space for the likes of Hayne and Slater to attack. Game II was a more forward oriented game that had plenty of niggle as both teams attempted to slow the play the ball.

It will be interesting to see what style the Maroons adopt for Game III. They haven’t had the various injury distractions to their backline stars this time around and their greatest weapon is the potency and class of their attack, but playing loose and fast will play right into the hands of Hayne, Dugan and Morris who all love to counter attack.

Forwards

Queensland look to have the edge in the packs even with the loss of Matt Scott who suffered a fractured cheek in Game II.

Jacob Lillyman will make his first start after previously making 6 appearances from the bench, the Warriors work horse is up to the job consistently carrying the ball for over 100m a game this season and putting plenty of pressure on the halves.

Corey Parker returns to the side and will look to put his dangerous off-loading ability to better use than in Game I. With Thaiday and Myles starting and Taylor to come off the bench making metres shouldn’t be a problem.

The Blues pack although out-sized seem willing to roll with anything led by inspirational Captain Paul Gallen who continues to lead from the front earning man of the match honours in Game II where he ran for 210m from 24 hit-ups and made 35 tackles.

Big prop Aaron Woods was excellent in Game II and with Scott out will look to dominate the front row battle. Ryan Hoffman was a standout in game II showing his mobility making some vital tackles late.

The Hookers showdown has been intriguing with Robbie Farrah having the edge over the QLD skipper, he’s been good with the ball but his tackling has been immense. Smith has been good but will feel more at home with his Storm teammate back outside him.

Backs

Cooper Cronk makes a stunning return from a broken arm sustained 10 minutes into Game I and will pair up with Johnathan Thurston in the halves where he can hopefully reignite the Maroons backline. Cronk’s return also enhances the ever present danger of Billy Slater with their dreaded 3 man plays in partnership with Smith.

Greg Inglis and Josh Dugan will face off in the centres in what could be the battle of the night if the game opens up. Inglis has had a much better preparation and Dugan will take confidence from the last match where he pretty well contained Inglis. Both players threats lie in their attacking ability and wont need an invite to test the other out.

Justin Hodges comes up against Josh Morris on the other flank, Morris doesn’t have the brute strength or off-loading ability of Hodges but he is good defensively and has wonderful feet and a knack for hitting holes.

The Fullbacks were both much quieter in Game II than I and will need to find ways of getting involved if the game is a tussle of the forwards. The great Origin halves combination of Cronk and Thurstons is back together and should give the Maroons the advantage, while Daly Cherry-Evans filled in for Cronk the backline didn’t run smoothly and he was largely bypassed for the first half of Game II.

Thurston’s defense was an improvement but he can still expect Hayne to target him, he is still all class with the ball in hand. The Blues halves of Trent Hodkinson and Josh Reynolds weren’t great in Game II with several handling errors, 3 from poorly timed inside balls and some average kicking.

Hodkinson did however score the match and Series winning try and conversion. They’ll need to have their timing sorted out and look to kick to open ground to negate the ball returning of Slater.

Prediction

The niggle in the ruck area during Game II has been heavily discussed, we can expect the refs to crack down on this area early.

Mal Meninga has also voiced his disapproval with the 10 meters not being policed heavily enough all pointing towards a faster free flowing game. This is certainly where the Maroons can best utilise their backs but it also creates the style of game where the Blues will feel most comfortable.

Reynolds loves to throw caution to the wind and have a go and with Hayne, Morris, Dugan and Tupou the attacking options are vast. He looked uncomfortable in Game II when he was forced to create in a slower paced match.

The Blues forwards have more than matched it with their opponents all series but with Parker back in and a few of the Maroons players perhaps playing for their Origin careers I can see QLD gaining the ascendency and providing ball to their runners with the blues on the back foot.

Dugan defended well in Game II but Inglis still broke through a couple of times, with him at full fitness in an open match they will try to exploit Dugans defensive frailties (playing in a position he is still a novice). The Queenslanders are a very proud team and this side is simply too good to go down 3 nil especially at Suncorp.

Queensland to win by 8

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After having a couple of weeks to take in the brilliance of Game I, we get ready to do it all again tomorrow night at ANZ Stadium where the Queensland dynasty will go on the line.

The Maroons have had a nightmare build up with several key players under injury clouds, forcing them to name a twenty-two man squad. George Papalii and Corey Parker have since been ruled out through injury. Greg Inglis and Billy Slater have proven their fitness however and will play in a huge boost to the teams hopes.

The topic of Daly Cherry-Evans is hotly debated – he hasn’t been able to train in camp due to a knee injury sustained a fortnight ago in his club match. Rookie Broncos half-back Ben Hunt has been training in the position all camp and is in line for a debut. The Blues however expect Cherry-Evans to play calling it Mal Meninga mind games.

Games or not it’s a far from ideal preparation, Evans came on early in Game I after Cronk broke his arm. He failed to impact the game and his timing with his runners was disjointed – this was put down to a lack of training at half-back during the Origin I camp as he was expected to play a different role. Without running with the team this won’t have been completely solved.

The Blues are Missing the Morris twins after both suffering major injuries at Suncorp yet playing out the match in herculean defensive efforts. Josh Dugan comes into the side at centre while Will Hopoate will play on the wing after only returning to the NRL this season from a two year Mormon mission – He does have past Origin form scoring a try on debut in 2011.

It will be a huge task at centre for Dugan, a gifted full-back but has only played a few games in his new position for the Dragons. He has the unenviable task of stopping Greg Inglis who by his standards had a quiet Game I and will be looking to exploit Dugan’s defensive frailties at every opportunity.

Key inclusions

For both sides are Greg Bird and Sam Thaiday. These two love the intensity and contact of the Origin cauldron. Thaiday will add another big ball carrier that loves taking it up to help Matthew Scott out, who had the most metres gained for the Maroons in Game I. Bird is versatile, combative and as in your face as it gets. He’ll do everything he can to put the Queenslanders off their game.

The battle of the fullbacks

This didn’t disappoint in their first encounter with Jarryd Hayne picking up man of the match honours and Billy Slater being the best for the Maroons. It would seem Jarryd Hayne is in outstanding form getting line-breaks, assists and try’s at will. In Game I he was unstoppable attacking Thurston’s channel to great success, he’ll be looking to test Thurston out again who has missed six tackles last time around. Slater was his menacing self last time, linking in and finding gaps. His kick returns are as dangerous as ever.

Prediction

The Blues will want to break their drought in front of their long suffering fans, while the Maroons will be desperate to keep the series alive.

The forward battle will be combative as always and come down to a war of attrition.

Reynolds and Hodkinson looked comfortable last time, the Maroons will be looking to get up on them quicker. Thurston won’t have that sort of game again, the team is aware of the need to assist him in defense and will be looking to shut Hayne down as quickly as possible.

The key could be Josh Dugan – no doubt he will provide something in attack but it will be whether he can contain Inglis for 80 minutes. Hopoate will have to have faith in his centre to not leave his wing open.

Queensland to keep the series alive and win by 2.

Teams

NSW 1. Jarryd Hayne, 2. Will Hopoate, 3. Josh Dugan, 4. Michael Jennings, 5. Daniel Tupou, 6. Josh Reynolds, 7. Trent Hodkinson, 8. Paul Gallen, 9. Robbie Farah, 10. Aaron Woods, 11. Ryan Hoffman, 12. Beau Scott, 13. Greg Bird, 14. James Tamou, 15. Anthony Watmough, 16. Luke Lewis, 17. Trent Merrin

QLD* Darius Boyd, Will Chambers, Daly Cherry-Evans, Matt Gillett, Aidan Guerra, Justin Hodges, Ben Hunt, Greg Inglis, Jacob Lillyman, Chris McQueen, Anthony Milford, Nate Myles, Matt Scott, Billy Slater, Cameron Smith, Brent Tate, David Taylor, Ben Te’o, Sam Thaiday, Johnathan Thurston, Willie Tonga

* Queensland have only announced a squad for Origin II

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Origin, the most anticipated rugby league match of the year

In the forwards both teams have had some major losses with the Blues losing Fifita and Bird while the Maroons pack doesn’t quite have the same look about it without Sam Thaiday.

Queensland have decided against replacing Thaiday with another prop, electing to move Nate Myles into the front row instead. It will be interesting to see if this effects Matthew Scott’s output, his club teammate and Origin opponent James Tamou has said the Blues have identified Scott as their main go forward and had done plenty of notes on him.

I see the rest of both packs having parity and look forward to the arm wrestle, especially between the locks, Corey Parker (who leads the NRL in offloads) and Blues captain Paul Gallen. There is a smorgasboard of class in the centres and outside backs.

Slater v Hayne, one of the key match-ups on Wednesday night

The Battle of the fullbacks between Billy Slater and Jarryd Hayne is worth the price of admission alone, both are in spectacular form and will pop up to do something special for their teams at any moment.

The wings see Brent Morris and Debutant Daniel Tupou against the experienced Darius Boyd and Brent Tate, Tate will be expecting an aerial work out against the high flying Tupou. In the centres Josh Morris will have the unenviable task of stopping Greg Inglis while on the other side Justin Hodges and Michael Jennings will keep each other busy.

The physicality of the packs and the scintillating running of the outer backs will be entertaining but where this match and the series will be won and lost comes down to the halfbacks and hookers.

Since NSW last won the series in 2005, guided around by the brilliant Andrew Johns they have used 6 different halfbacks and 9 five-eigths. This year we see another new combination in the Bulldogs pair of Josh Reynolds and Trent Hodkinson, this was the right call. Pearce and Maloney had to be replaced and Pearce’s late night shenanigans may have been a blessing in disguise for long suffering Blues fans.

The Bulldogs pair have been in great form this NRL season leading their team to top of the table. Reynolds gets his first Origin start, he’s a livewire that like’s to try things and has the competitive nature suited to Origin while debutant Hodkinson is a level headed player and accurate goal kicker.

In Maroon again will be Jonathon Thurston and Cooper Cronk, these two are the biggest hurdle in the way of the Blues. They go into Origin in excellent form being ranked #1 and 2 for Try Assists in the NRL with 27 between them while the Blues pair have 14. They also dwarf their opposition in line break assists and if the game is close at the end they’re #1 and 2 for drop goals this season too.

Queensland Captain Cameron Smith.

Queensland captain Cameron Smith will make his 31st Origin appearance and shows no sign of ageing. For the Blues Robbie Farah has missed a bit of footy with a dislocated elbow but showed his importance in his return against the Sharks.

If the Halfbacks are the main problem for New South Wales there’s two others, Composure.

The last series decider was won by 2 points, in 2012 the decider was won by 1 point. Whether it be a big tackle, line break or field goal, in those clutch moments when the game is on the line Queensland has the composure and experience to come out on top.

Suncorp Stadium. Its fitting the 100th Origin match will be played at Suncorp, it’s where it all began. This stadium at Origin time is like an opponent itself for the Blues. It’s loud and hostile. NSW haven’t won game 1 of an Origin series at Suncorp since 2003 and since then have only won 3 of 14 matches at the ground (2 of those being dead rubbers).

Whatever happens come match time it’ll be entertaining, brutal and there will be more than a few surprises because that’s what State of Origin brings.

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