After having a couple of weeks to take in the brilliance of Game I, we get ready to do it all again tomorrow night at ANZ Stadium where the Queensland dynasty will go on the line.

The Maroons have had a nightmare build up with several key players under injury clouds, forcing them to name a twenty-two man squad. George Papalii and Corey Parker have since been ruled out through injury. Greg Inglis and Billy Slater have proven their fitness however and will play in a huge boost to the teams hopes.

The topic of Daly Cherry-Evans is hotly debated – he hasn’t been able to train in camp due to a knee injury sustained a fortnight ago in his club match. Rookie Broncos half-back Ben Hunt has been training in the position all camp and is in line for a debut. The Blues however expect Cherry-Evans to play calling it Mal Meninga mind games.

Games or not it’s a far from ideal preparation, Evans came on early in Game I after Cronk broke his arm. He failed to impact the game and his timing with his runners was disjointed – this was put down to a lack of training at half-back during the Origin I camp as he was expected to play a different role. Without running with the team this won’t have been completely solved.

The Blues are Missing the Morris twins after both suffering major injuries at Suncorp yet playing out the match in herculean defensive efforts. Josh Dugan comes into the side at centre while Will Hopoate will play on the wing after only returning to the NRL this season from a two year Mormon mission – He does have past Origin form scoring a try on debut in 2011.

It will be a huge task at centre for Dugan, a gifted full-back but has only played a few games in his new position for the Dragons. He has the unenviable task of stopping Greg Inglis who by his standards had a quiet Game I and will be looking to exploit Dugan’s defensive frailties at every opportunity.

Key inclusions

For both sides are Greg Bird and Sam Thaiday. These two love the intensity and contact of the Origin cauldron. Thaiday will add another big ball carrier that loves taking it up to help Matthew Scott out, who had the most metres gained for the Maroons in Game I. Bird is versatile, combative and as in your face as it gets. He’ll do everything he can to put the Queenslanders off their game.

The battle of the fullbacks

This didn’t disappoint in their first encounter with Jarryd Hayne picking up man of the match honours and Billy Slater being the best for the Maroons. It would seem Jarryd Hayne is in outstanding form getting line-breaks, assists and try’s at will. In Game I he was unstoppable attacking Thurston’s channel to great success, he’ll be looking to test Thurston out again who has missed six tackles last time around. Slater was his menacing self last time, linking in and finding gaps. His kick returns are as dangerous as ever.

Prediction

The Blues will want to break their drought in front of their long suffering fans, while the Maroons will be desperate to keep the series alive.

The forward battle will be combative as always and come down to a war of attrition.

Reynolds and Hodkinson looked comfortable last time, the Maroons will be looking to get up on them quicker. Thurston won’t have that sort of game again, the team is aware of the need to assist him in defense and will be looking to shut Hayne down as quickly as possible.

The key could be Josh Dugan – no doubt he will provide something in attack but it will be whether he can contain Inglis for 80 minutes. Hopoate will have to have faith in his centre to not leave his wing open.

Queensland to keep the series alive and win by 2.

Teams

NSW 1. Jarryd Hayne, 2. Will Hopoate, 3. Josh Dugan, 4. Michael Jennings, 5. Daniel Tupou, 6. Josh Reynolds, 7. Trent Hodkinson, 8. Paul Gallen, 9. Robbie Farah, 10. Aaron Woods, 11. Ryan Hoffman, 12. Beau Scott, 13. Greg Bird, 14. James Tamou, 15. Anthony Watmough, 16. Luke Lewis, 17. Trent Merrin

QLD* Darius Boyd, Will Chambers, Daly Cherry-Evans, Matt Gillett, Aidan Guerra, Justin Hodges, Ben Hunt, Greg Inglis, Jacob Lillyman, Chris McQueen, Anthony Milford, Nate Myles, Matt Scott, Billy Slater, Cameron Smith, Brent Tate, David Taylor, Ben Te’o, Sam Thaiday, Johnathan Thurston, Willie Tonga

* Queensland have only announced a squad for Origin II

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Origin, the most anticipated rugby league match of the year

In the forwards both teams have had some major losses with the Blues losing Fifita and Bird while the Maroons pack doesn’t quite have the same look about it without Sam Thaiday.

Queensland have decided against replacing Thaiday with another prop, electing to move Nate Myles into the front row instead. It will be interesting to see if this effects Matthew Scott’s output, his club teammate and Origin opponent James Tamou has said the Blues have identified Scott as their main go forward and had done plenty of notes on him.

I see the rest of both packs having parity and look forward to the arm wrestle, especially between the locks, Corey Parker (who leads the NRL in offloads) and Blues captain Paul Gallen. There is a smorgasboard of class in the centres and outside backs.

Slater v Hayne, one of the key match-ups on Wednesday night

The Battle of the fullbacks between Billy Slater and Jarryd Hayne is worth the price of admission alone, both are in spectacular form and will pop up to do something special for their teams at any moment.

The wings see Brent Morris and Debutant Daniel Tupou against the experienced Darius Boyd and Brent Tate, Tate will be expecting an aerial work out against the high flying Tupou. In the centres Josh Morris will have the unenviable task of stopping Greg Inglis while on the other side Justin Hodges and Michael Jennings will keep each other busy.

The physicality of the packs and the scintillating running of the outer backs will be entertaining but where this match and the series will be won and lost comes down to the halfbacks and hookers.

Since NSW last won the series in 2005, guided around by the brilliant Andrew Johns they have used 6 different halfbacks and 9 five-eigths. This year we see another new combination in the Bulldogs pair of Josh Reynolds and Trent Hodkinson, this was the right call. Pearce and Maloney had to be replaced and Pearce’s late night shenanigans may have been a blessing in disguise for long suffering Blues fans.

The Bulldogs pair have been in great form this NRL season leading their team to top of the table. Reynolds gets his first Origin start, he’s a livewire that like’s to try things and has the competitive nature suited to Origin while debutant Hodkinson is a level headed player and accurate goal kicker.

In Maroon again will be Jonathon Thurston and Cooper Cronk, these two are the biggest hurdle in the way of the Blues. They go into Origin in excellent form being ranked #1 and 2 for Try Assists in the NRL with 27 between them while the Blues pair have 14. They also dwarf their opposition in line break assists and if the game is close at the end they’re #1 and 2 for drop goals this season too.

Queensland Captain Cameron Smith.

Queensland captain Cameron Smith will make his 31st Origin appearance and shows no sign of ageing. For the Blues Robbie Farah has missed a bit of footy with a dislocated elbow but showed his importance in his return against the Sharks.

If the Halfbacks are the main problem for New South Wales there’s two others, Composure.

The last series decider was won by 2 points, in 2012 the decider was won by 1 point. Whether it be a big tackle, line break or field goal, in those clutch moments when the game is on the line Queensland has the composure and experience to come out on top.

Suncorp Stadium. Its fitting the 100th Origin match will be played at Suncorp, it’s where it all began. This stadium at Origin time is like an opponent itself for the Blues. It’s loud and hostile. NSW haven’t won game 1 of an Origin series at Suncorp since 2003 and since then have only won 3 of 14 matches at the ground (2 of those being dead rubbers).

Whatever happens come match time it’ll be entertaining, brutal and there will be more than a few surprises because that’s what State of Origin brings.

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