Wallabies v France, our preview

Australia would do well to be cautious of this French team. We’ve seen what’s happened in the past when opponents underestimate their rivals. Where as few of the Les Bleus will fear the Wallabies after destroying their pack and dominating at their last meeting in 2012, a 33-6 humiliation in Paris.

The Wallabies will be chasing a 3-0 series white wash at home, and are strong favorites to do so. The term “which French team will turn up” is well over used, and over a three test series, you’d expect the French to put at least one game together.

Over the last four years, the Wallabies have lost their opening test of the year and will be keen to turn around their opening match form.

The French finished the Six Nations in fourth place, have not won a match in Australia in 24 years and face a Wallabies team who have won their last four outings against northern hemisphere opposition.

Stephen Moore becomes the 81st Wallabies captain, and Ewen McKenzie has been a breath of fresh air, picking players on Super Rugby form, while giving very little consideration for reputations and incumbency.

However, the way he gave himself little flexibility in the backline is curious. Picking both Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale as fly halves, and removing the option of using both as a 10 and 12 combination, which we’ve seen used to much success by the Waratahs this year. As well as pigeon-holing arguably, the form Australian centre (Adam Ashley-Cooper) on the wing.

Les Blues coach, Philippe Saint-André has seemingly given the Wallabies a head-start, with the exception of a couple of backs on the bench, he has picked non of the players which appeared in the Top14 final for this weekend’s match.

McKenzie made some tough calls for his match day 23, but his ability to leave some players, which many considered an automatic selection out is indicative of the depth currently available in Australian rugby.

It was a slight surprise to leave Matt Hodgson off the bench, obviously banking on vice-captain Michael Hooper to play a full 80 minutes. It was a little more of a surprise to see Scott Higginbotham left out of the team, in favor of Wycliffe Palu and Ben McCalman. McKenzie is obviously looking to counter the size of the French pack with some size of his own.

But the biggest surprise of all was to see the improving Will Genia’s omission, in favor of Nic White and Nick Phipps.

Fofana, his blistering try in 2012

The French squad lacks only three of their first-choice players. Although their touring group is solid if everybody is match-fit, however, their side for this test is not.

The starting front row will be fine even though their best two hookers, Dimitri Szarzewski and Benjamin Kayser, are crocked at home. Old warhorse lock Pascal Papé is left behind to rest, but the starting second rowers for Suncorp are strong fellows; however Sébastien Vahaamahina is not a regular starter.

The backrow is undistinguished by France standards though no. 8 Damien Chouly has been in prime form for Clermont this season.

Scrum half Maxime Machenaud is one of the best in Europe but his partner Frédéric Michalak, who plays either 9 or 10, couldn’t even get onto the Toulon bench in the Top 14 final as a utility, he hasn’t played for a month, so his omission really isn’t a surprise.

James Slipper becomes the second youngest player to gain 50 test caps as a prop. The two teams have played 42 times, with the Wallabies ahead, 23-17, with two draws.

Australia have won five out of their last six they’ve played against France, and the French have never won in Brisbane, or Melbourne. The French have only won four times in Australia, the last time being in 1990.

Key Match Ups:

Front Row:
The French loose head, Thomas Domingo is short, at 178cm he is 15cm shorter than both of the Wallabies props and he’s known for screwing in. It won’t be so bad for James Slipper against Nicolas Mas, but the whole French front row likes to ‘squeeze in’ on the opposition hooker.

The Wallabies will have to look for a way to counter that, without relying on referee, Craig Joubert, who rarely makes calls in that area.

Centres:
One of the strengths of the France squad is their midfield. Although Lamerat will be on the bench, and Mathieu Bastareaud won’t be playing at all, their most athletic and elusive centres, Wesley Fofana and Gael Fickou, will be running on.

Aussies fans will remember Fofana’s excellent try in 2012 with a shudder.

Toomua and Kuridrani are different players to the French centres. Toomua will be like a second flyhalf and will scan the geometry of the field and the distribution of players on it, both theirs and his, whereas Fofana will be looking to the main chance for himself or his immediate neighbour.

Fickou is much the same as Fofana but Kuridrani, though he can find a gap on his day, will want to brutalise his centre opponents whether he has the ball or they do.

The Loose Forwards:
The French usually play their loosies on the same side of the scrum throughout the whole game, Bernard le Roux comes out of the typical South African mold, a brute and strong at the line out. However, he lacks the tact and match brain of his opponent, Scott Fardy.

Fulgence Ouedraogo is a hard worker, but not in the class of Michael Hooper. And it’s little surprise  Saint-André sees Hooper as a threat.  The battle of the number 8’s will be tight, both big, bruising and hard running.

Our Prediction:

Sure, the last time they played, the French smashed the Wallabies, but I can’t see this team doing it in Brisbane. While the battle at the coal face looks like it’ll be close, the Wallabies are a class above in the backline, and that should reflect in the final score.

I’m tipping the Wallabies by 14

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