Round 19 saw mass action, with the Brumbies and the Chiefs securing their spots in the finals.

Results

Blues 8-11 Chiefs
Brumbies 47-25 Force
Bulls 40-7 Rebels
Crusaders 34-8 Highlanders
Reds 3-34 Waratahs
Lions 60-25 Cheetahs
Stormers 10-34 Sharks

The Tahs and Crusaders have earned a week off, while this comming weekend, the Brumbies host the Chiefs and the Sharks are at home against the Highlanders.

The lowest ranked winner from the qualifying finals will then play the Waratahs in Sydney in semi-final one. The Highest ranked winner from the qualifying finals will play the Crusaders in Christchurch.

The winner of semi-final one will then play the winner of semi-final two in the grand final, which will be hosted by the highest ranked semi-final winner.

Highlights

Del.icio.us

Facebook

TweetThis

Digg

StumbleUpon

With nine teams still in contention for the finals, most teams find themselves in a must win situation. Over the next two days, we find out who plays on and who goes home.

 Blues Vs. Chiefs

The first of four games with massive finals ramifications. Expect a high-octane affair, the Blues MUST win by at least 38, scoring a minimum of five tries along the way. There will be no holding back by the Blues, they’ll certainly have a tries at all costs mentality. Yet, the Blues will still be knocked out if the Chiefs or the loser of Brumbies v Force jag a bonus point.

The equation for the Chiefs is simple, win. A win will guarantee them finals birth, if they don’t win, they MUST gain two bonus points to have any chance. One bonus point for the Chiefs will not be enough to get ahead of the Hurricanes, who have a far superior for and against (63 vs. 3).

Making life tough for the Blues will be the absence of Luke Braid and Tony Woodcock. The Chiefs have made just one change, with centre Bundee Aki replacing the injured Charlie Ngatai.

The only home game the Blues have lost all year was against the Sharks in North Harbour, and the Blues are yet to drop a game at Eden Park this season. Because of the Blues form in Auckland, I’m tipping them to take it out.

Blues to win by 12 in a highly entertaining match.

 Brumbies Vs. Force

The finals scenario is the same for both these teams, they’re both locked on 40 points and the same amount of wins. The winner of this match will be hot favorites to finish in 4th and secure a home qualifying final.

Even in a losing team, a bonus point should be enough to get the loser through – if my tip in the previous game (Blues v Chiefs) holds true. A losing bonus point will put them equal on points with the Hurricanes (41) but both the Brumbies and the Force have a superior number of wins, and will thus move higher on the table.

Wallabies Matt Toomua and Sam Carter are back for the Brumbies after their last-start loss to the Waratahs – not to mention third-string hooker Josh Mann-Rea. The Force have lost powerful flanker Hugh McMeniman to a one-week suspension for kneeing. In the visitors’ favour is the fact the Brumbies haven’t won a last-round match since 2007, with the Force beating them last year and in 2008.

Even though last round form is against the Brumbies they should still be too strong at home. The Brumbies will no doubt look to secure a win before going for a bonus point, meaning a lot of penalty goals being traded. Because of this, the Force should have an easy-ish time in hunting a losing bonus point.

I’m tipping the Brumbies by 4.

 Bulls Vs. Rebels

One of only two ‘who cares’ matches of the final round. There is little to play for, for these two teams other than pride. Both teams are out of finals contention, but it’s likely the Rebels will be more desperate than the Bulls.

Only a win for the Rebels will give them a chance of avoiding the wooden spoon following last weeks loss to the Lions. They’ll have to do so without skipper Scott Higginbotham, who has received a one-game suspension for repeated yellow cards this season.

The Bulls haven’t lost at their high-altitude home all year. They’ll be hurting after last week’s 16-0 loss to the Stormers and will want to avoid finishing the season with three straight defeats.

The Rebels really have had a season to forget, and the Bulls will want to finish on a high, because of this and the Bulls home ground form, I’m tipping the Bulls to win by 14.

What’s your predictions?

Del.icio.us

Facebook

TweetThis

Digg

StumbleUpon

Super Rugby’s most successful teams

The South African conference is looking pretty straight forward, The Sharks are bound to top the lot in Africa and secure a home final. But what are the chances of the Bulls? They are sitting only two points out of a wild card spot.

A bye this weekend, and another bye still to come isn’t going to help their cause, so theoretically, the Bulls only have four rounds left to put their stamp on the competition. The big advantage for them is all their touring is done and dusted for 2014. But, they still have some very tough games coming up.

The Australian conference is looking tighter, three teams still in contention. The Brumbies, Force and Waratahs still in with a shot of making the top six, and even finishing on top of the table overall. The Force, being this years bolters.

The Waratahs need to develop more consistency to make themselves a threat. Unable to secure back-to-back wins since their win against the Reds on March 1.

But lets not forget the Brumbies, they have played one more game than the Force an the Waratahs. With only a three point lead at the top of the Australian conference, their bye round has the potential to make all the difference.

New Zealand, where do we start? All five teams in their conference are still very much alive. But with 10 ‘local derby’ matches still ahead of them, they are set to cannibalize each other’s chances.

Because of this, New Zealand being able to get more than two teams into the top six is unlikely. They are the tightest conference in this years competition, and that means it’s going to cost them places in the finals.

The Chiefs have started to cough and splatter, the Hurricanes arguably have the toughest matches to close out the home and away part of the season. The Highlanders struggling to win away from home and the Blues with a bye still to come, can’t afford to drop many more games.

To pick a conference winner in New Zealand, you could almost place all five teams names on a board, put a blindfold on and throw a dart.

So what matches are still to come? Where will the points go?

Predicted conference tables. Bonus points taken into consideration

The Bulls have it tough, two byes still to come and a couple of tough matches against the Sharks and the Brumbies. The Bulls have their backs to the wall. I can only see the Bulls gaining two wins in the final six rounds.

The Bumbies with a bye, and a tough away game to the Waratahs ahead, should still pick up four wins. The Force are a chance to actually top the Australian conference, a hard battle ahead against the Crusaders in Christchurch, and a home match against the Blues, as well as a final round match-up against the Brumbies, we still see them picking up victories in four of the final six rounds.

The Tahs still have some very tight and crucial matches ahead, with most of their remaining big games being played at home, this is an advantage shouldn’t be underestimated. The RBP crystal ball indicates the Waratahs should get five wins in their last six – if they can develop some form of consistency.

Now, to pick a conference winner in New Zealand, you could almost place all five teams names on a board, put a blindfold on and throw a dart. However, lets put some level of thought into it.

The Chiefs have had a mortgage on the number one spot in New Zealand pretty much all year, but, with a bye this round, and only two home game to come. Their run home is looking rocky. In New Zealand, we’re seeing more often than not this year, the team with the home ground advantage is the team generally picking up the win. Because of that, we can only see the Chiefs gaining two victories in the last six rounds.

Predicted overall table. We went under the assumption in NZ, that the home team will get the win (impossible to pick the winner in NZ)

The Crusaders have been the form team in New Zealand in recent weeks. Big wins over the Reds in Brisbane, and the Brumbies at home has really shot them right up to the pointy end of the table. And we think they’ll pick up four wins in the remaining rounds.

The Canes have a tough, tough draw to finish off with, five ‘local derby’ matches and a bye, nothing is for certain. However, we expect the Canes to finish off the year with three wins.

The Highlanders has been pretty close to invincible at home, but, their away form is inconsistent. And with a majority of their last six matches being away, we can only see the southern cuzzies gaining two more victories.

And the Blues, like the ‘Landers, their home form has been phenomenal, it’s how they play away from home which has cost them. With a bye this weekend, we can only see the Blues picking up three more wins to close out the season.

This is RBP’s predictions, what is yours?

Del.icio.us

Facebook

TweetThis

Digg

StumbleUpon