Firstly, I would just like to say to Michael Cheika, I am pissed. I mean royally pissed. Who do you think you are depriving the world of Nick Cummins’s brilliant interviews. I mean yea, he hasn’t been in great form, but it’s not as though this is an important tournament, I mean really, just humor us a little.
In all seriousness though, this is an extremely important time for the Wallabies. This World Cup cycle has not gone well for them, and they have a lot of questions to answer before they head to England. Also, The Wallabies face a very difficult pool, with England and Wales joining the Wallabies in Pool A. The Wallabies certainly have the talent to compete with New Zealand and South Africa, but have not put together a good enough performance just yet, with time running out, this side needs to find their best combinations, and need to do it soon.
The front row has been an area of major trouble for Australia over the last few years, and if they head to England with a weak scrum, they should probably forget about a quarter final berth, especially bearing in mind the way that England have played in that area. James Slipper and Sekope Kepu are likely to be the first choice props, and that is a very good combination. Both are very active in open play and are very dangerous with ball in hand. Kepu’s power and Slipper’s hands means that they can create space for others with ease. Stephen Moore captains the side from hooker and he will offer the solidity that the Wallabies have been missing in the scrum and the lineout.
Rory Arnold has had a great season, and has a very good chance of working his way into the starting XV. His massive height will bolster the Australian lineout, hopefully nullifying the sides set-piece woes. Will Skelton is another good player who good work his way into the XV, but he is too big to jump in lineouts, which can be a liability. That said, his destructive ball carrying and excellent offloading ability means that he can spark this explosive Wallaby backline. James Horwill’s experience and leadership keeps him in contention, but with younger options like Rob Simmons, and the in form Dean Mumm, it’s unlikely that we will see him starting for the side.
The backrow is full of interesting questions. There are so many exciting options here that we at RBP could barely contain ourselves writing this (there was a lot of heavy breathing). The Michael Hooper vs David Pocock battle has been the headline grabber, but look at blindside spot. Hooper or Pocock could be put there if Cheika so desires, and then you have Sean McMahon, Scott Fardy, and Scott Higginbotham also capable of playing there. I suspect that Michael Cheika will start both Hooper and Pocock, at least for the first test against the Springboks, that should help them hold off the Boks at the breakdown, but expect a lot of experimentation in this area. Young McMahon is a beast, and Fardy offers a great workrate, so Cheika can mix and match his flankers to the game he wants to play. I do think that he must start Scott Higginbotham however. I am a huge fan of Ben McCalman, but Higginbotham has been in outstanding form this season, can jump in lineouts, (facilitating the use of Skelton) and is a destructive, impact player with ball in hand. In terms of offloading ability, he is on par with Kieran Reid, and that is something the Wallabies just cannot ignore.
At his best, Will Genia is probably the best 9 in Australia, but his lack of consistency means that no one really knows what to expect when he comes onto the field. Nick Phipps is a much safer option, but he is not a very exciting player, and often seems a bit too slow from ruck to ruck. That said, with Genia not at his best, and Nic White out of the squad, Phipps seems to be Australia’s best choice.
The flyhalf shirt battles down to two primary contenders, Bernard Foley and Quade Cooper. Cooper has not played much this season, and while he is one of the world’s most explosive players, his inconsistency cannot be ignored. Bernard Foley is a safer option, but he played poorly against the Highlanders, and his bad kicking meant that the Waratahs struggled to exit their half. Expect Foley to start, with Cooper off the bench as an impact sub. Foley is good when he has the platform to attack the line, and this can cause problems for sides like the Springboks, if the Wallabies sort their setpiece.
The centers see some of Australia’s most talented players fighting for a spot in the starting XV. At inside center, the now eligible Matt Giteau will be fighting it out with Kurtley Beale and Matt Toomua. Beale has been in poor form this season, and Giteau will probably need some time to acclimate to the Australian setup, so expect to see Toomua keep his 12 shirt. He has been one of Australia’s best performers over the last few seasons, and his partnership with Tevita Kuridrani has brought the Wallabies oodles of tries over the last few seasons. Personally I think that Cheika would be mad not to select Toomua and Kuridrani, seeing how they have dominated most international teams over the last two years.
Australia have an abundance of riches in the back three, and this, naturally, creates plenty of debate over selection. There are increasing calls to shift Israel Folau to wing, but my question is, why fix what aint broke. So keep arguably the world’s best fullback at…well…fullback, but that is where things stop being easy. Joe Tomane has been in unstoppable form, but ask any team in Europe and they will tell you the same thing about Drew Mitchell, who is also now available. Of course we cannot ignore Rob Horne or Taqele Naiyaravoro, both of whom were unstoppable for the Waratahs this season. I suspect we will see Tomane and Horne starting on the wing, with Kurtley Beale or Matt Giteau on the bench thanks to their ability to cover fullback.
There can be no denying the talent of this Wallaby side, but if they cannot come together and play as one, they will be torn apart by the All Blacks and Springboks once again. I think that they will improve statistically from last season, with a better points differential, and going 2-0 against Argentina, but I cannot see them getting a win over South Africa or New Zealand. Their improvements will put them in a good place ahead of the World Cup, but this is still a side that is in turmoil.
Probable Starting XV: 1. James Slipper 2. Stephen MooreⒸ 3. Sekope Kepu 4. Rory Arnold 5. Rob Simmons 6. Michael Hooper 7. David Pocock 8. Scott Higginbotham 9. Nick Phipps 10. Bernard Foley 11. Rob Horne 12. Matt Toomua 13. Tevita Kuridriani 14. Joe Tomane 15. Israel Folau
Young Player to Watch: Sean McMahon
Most Important Player in Attack: Israel Folau
Most Important Player in Defence: David Pocock
Not a terrible analysis but it is a myth that SA are significantly stronger that Aus. Since 2011 it is square at 4 each. Will beat SA at home and lose away.