RWC 2015 Match Prediction: Samoa vs Scotland

Scotland can secure a return to the quarterfinals for the first time in 8 years with a win over the Samoans, who have endured a tough campaign. The Samoans will not make this an easy task, and as ever, their physicality is likely to create massive problems for the Scots. Vern Cotter knows that Scotland fans want to see improvement, especially after their woeful 6 Nations, and a quarterfinal berth would keep him off the hot seat, for now at least.

Sakaria Taulafo starts in the 1 shirt, and is joined by Manu Leiataua at hooker, and the massive Census Johnston at tighthead. The Samoans will want Johnston to bolster the scrum, but his contributions in the loose cannot falter. Alasdair Dickinson and Ross Ford do a lot of work around the field, and both are potent weapons for Scotland at the breakdown. W.P. Nel has been a rock for the Scottish scrum since gaining inclusion, and the South African born prop is likely to remain so for Vern Cotter’s side for the foreseeable future.

Filo Paulo and Kane Thompson will commandeer the Samoan lineout, and their physicality on the gainline is a great asset to the Samoan team, but they do face a tough task. They must come up against Richie and Jonny Gray, and the two Scottish behemoths will make lineouts a nightmare for the Samoans. In open play as well, the brothers are among the best at what they do, with Richie always looking to carry and offload, and Jonny going through work like a man possessed.

Samoa must do without Captain Ofisa Treviranus and TJ Ioane, removing two powerful ball carriers from their back row, but Jack Lam is still there, meaning there is a definite sting in the tail of this Samoan back row. Vavae Tuilagi is also waiting on the bench, so there will be no respite for the Scots. Ryan Wilson and John Hardie make up a hard working pair of flankers, while Dave Denton adds his ball carrying dimension to the side in what is a very well balanced back row. Expect these three to make life very difficult for Samoa at the breakdown, slowing the game at every opportunity.

The scrum halves are the captains for both sides, with Kahn Fotuali’i taking the role for the Samoans, while the Scots have once again given the role to Greig Laidlaw. Laidlaw’s play has been consistent, but the lackluster back play last week maybe should have given rise to more discussion about the possibility of Sam Hidalgo-Clyne starting at 9. Finn Russell is back to the relief of Scotland fans, and his flat, attacking style of play will hopefully bring back Scotland’s wider attacking patterns.

Rey Lee-Lo and George Pisi start in the centers for Samoa, and Lee-Lo will want to take advantage of his opportunity on this stage to maybe earn his way to a contract in Europe. As for Pisi, his resume speaks for itself, and the Scots need to keep him under wraps. Pisi is likely to be at the center of the Samoan attacking gameplan, but he needs to be at his best defensively as well. Matt Scott offers great distribution and decision making at 12, while Mark Bennett is probably Scotland best attacking player with the exception of Stuart Hogg. Bennett adds so much to the Scottish attack, and if the Samoans are undisciplined in their defensive line, they will find themselves in a lot of trouble.

Paul Perez shifts from the center to the wing for Samoa, and his dangerous attacking form of late does make this a sensible move. Perez will be hard to contain coming off his wing, but is not even the most dangerous player the Samoans have in their back three. The electric Tim Nanai-Williams can create chaos if given space to run, so the Scottish kick chase must be accurate and efficient, or he will punish them with ruthless efficiency. Scotland have named what is probably their most dangerous attacking back three, with Sean Maitland, Tommy Seymour, and Stuart Hogg all electric playmakers. With these three lurking out wide, you can expect to see the Scots playing the game with great width, with the end goal of getting any of these three in space.

The Samoans beat Scotland the last time these two sides met, running out with a 27-17 win, and the Scots have failed to muster more than 20 points in any of their last 4 matches against the Samoans, which says that historically, they have struggled against the Pacific Islanders. However, Scotland are a different team under Vern Cotter, and they will want to prove that. More importantly, their backs are against the wall here, and if they fail to secure a win against the Samoans, they may be forced to watch Japan progress, a thought that none of them will even want to imagine. Expect intensity and physicality in this match, but the result should finish the way of the Scots.

Prediction: Scotland 35- Samoa 22